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Odds and Predictions for the Top Goalscorer at Copa America 2021

| June 11, 2021 10:46 am PDT

After much deliberation, the 2021 Copa America is set to kick off in Brazil on Sunday, June 13. The tournament was originally supposed to be co-hosted by Argentina and Colombia, but CONMEBOL (South American soccer’s governing body) made the switch at the eleventh hour.

Anyway, if you are betting on the top goalscorer at the 2021 Copa America, you probably don’t care where the competition is taking place.

Likely, you’re here to check out the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot odds. And on top of that, I am sure you want to know all about the 2021 Copa America top scorer favorites and sleepers. Am I right?

Thankfully for you, I cover all that – and more – in this post. After looking at the bookmakers’ odds and analyzing the favorites and sleepers, I share my 2021 Copa America Golden Boot predictions.

Let’s get right into it!

2021 Copa America Top Goalscorer Odds

Here are the latest odds for the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot.

As you can see, there are plenty of familiar names among the bookies’ 2021 Copa America top goalscorer odds list.

Brazilian poster boy Neymar (4.00) is the current favorite, although Argentine legend Lionel Messi (5.00) isn’t far behind. Uruguay’s Luis Suarez (7.00) and Argentina’s Lautaro Martinez (7.00) are also in the group of frontrunners.

The prices take a significant jump to Roberto Firmino (15.00), Luis Muriel (15.00), and Edinson Cavani (15.00), with Sergio Aguero (19.00), Duvan Zapata (19.00), and Richarlison (23.00) completing the top ten.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2021 Copa America top scorer favorites.

Favorites for the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot

The best online sports betting sites believe there are four clear favorites to win the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot. Below, I assess the leading contenders.

Neymar (4.00)

Having missed out on the 2019 Copa America through injury, Neymar will no doubt be desperate to make his mark on this year’s tournament.

Unfortunately, the 29-year-old – who remains one of the most valuable soccer players in the world – heads into the competition on the back of another injury-hit season. In fact, he featured in less than half of PSG’s Ligue 1 matches in 2020/21 – scoring just nine goals along the way.

That said, Neymar’s international record speaks for itself. He has scored a remarkable 64 goals in 103 appearances for his country, making him Brazil’s second-highest all-time scorer.

It could be argued that Brazil has been drawn in a favorable group, too, giving Neymar a better chance of finding the back of the net early in the tournament. With the likes of Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile in Group B, Brazil’s Group A opponents don’t look half as daunting.

BRAZIL’S ALL-TIME LEADING GOALSCORERS
Player Goals Games Goals Per Game
Pele 77 92 0.84
Neymar 64 103 0.62
Ronaldo 62 98 0.63
Romario 55 70 0.79
Zico 48 71 0.68

Lionel Messi (5.00)

There is no denying that Barcelona endured a below-par 2020/21 campaign. But when you look at what Messi has done over the past 12 months, you can’t exactly blame him for his side’s shortcomings.

In a struggling team, the little magician still managed to rack up 38 goals and 14 assists in 47 matches. With numbers like that, you would be foolish to write him off when it comes to betting on the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot.

Overall, Messi has bagged 71 goals in 142 games for Argentina – including nine goals in 27 Copa America clashes. He may only average a goal every three Copa America games, but he is obviously capable of improving that record.

If Messi does finish as the top goalscorer at the 2021 Copa America, he will greatly enhance his chances of winning a seventh Ballon d’Or.

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Luis Suarez (7.00)

When Barcelona sold Suarez to Atletico Madrid last year, many believed that he was past his best. But the 34-year-old proved his doubters wrong, scoring 21 goals in 32 La Liga matches as Atletico clinched the title.

Only three players scored more La Liga goals than Suarez in 2020/21, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he carried his domestic form onto the international stage and challenged for the Golden Boot.

Suarez netted four goals at the 2011 Copa America before adding two more to his tally in 2019. Having missed the 2015 and 2016 tournaments, the Uruguayan’s Copa America record stands at six goals in ten games.

LA LIGA TOP SCORERS (2020/21 SEASON)
Player Goals Games Goals Per Game
Lionel Messi 30 35 0.89
Karim Benzema 23 34 0.71
Gerard Moreno 23 33 0.77
Luis Suarez 21 32 0.75
Youssef En-Nesyri 18 38 0.70

Lautaro Martinez (7.00)

If the early stages of Martinez’s international career are anything to go by, the 23-year-old is set to score tons of goals.

After bagging seven goals in 11 matches for Argentina’s U20 side, the Inter Milan forward already has ten goals in 19 senior appearances for his country – scoring two goals in four appearances at the 2019 Copa America.

If Martinez can step out of Messi’s shadow and shine in Brazil, he will almost certainly find himself at the top end of the 2021 Copa America goalscoring charts.

2021 Copa America Top Scorer Sleepers

Now that we’ve taken an in-depth look at the favorites to win the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot, let’s check out some of the sleepers that could land us a tasty profit.

Edinson Cavani (15.00)

The third-most capped player in Uruguay’s history, Cavani has been scoring goals for his country since 2008. In that time, the striker has netted 51 times in 118 appearances – including two goals at the 2019 Copa America.

After becoming PSG’s all-time top scorer, Cavani swapped Paris for Manchester and teamed up with United last year. He finished the 2020/21 campaign on a serious high, chalking up ten goals across his final 11 outings for the Red Devils.

In fact, Cavani ended up registering the third-best goals-per-90-minutes ratio in the EPL. If he continues to score at that rate, he could easily clinch the Golden Boot.

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Sergio Aguero (19.00)

Having ended his Manchester City career with a defeat to Chelsea in the Champions League final, Aguero will surely be desperate to taste success on the international stage this summer.

Granted, he may be behind Messi and Martinez in the Argentina pecking order. But he is bound to get opportunities off the bench – and when it comes to tournament soccer, the entire squad generally play an important role.

Across the previous four Copa Americas, Aguero has scored nine goals in 20 matches. With 41 goals in 97 international games, Aguero must not be discounted in the race for the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot.

Eduardo Vargas (34.00)

Eduardo Vargas LOVES the Copa America, end of story. I mean, only ten players have scored more goals than Chile’s two-time winner in the tournament’s history.

After scoring four goals on his way to lifting the trophy in 2015, Vargas netted six times as Chile defended its title in 2016. In 2019, he added a further two goals to his tally – taking his overall Copa America record to 12 goals in 18 matches.

Of course, with guys like Neymar and Messi battling for the Golden Boot, it will be difficult for Vargas to finished as the competition’s top scorer this year. But when you look at his record, odds of 34.00 suddenly become attractive.

Vinicius Junior (81.00)

Yes, Vinicius Junior is priced at 81.00 to win the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot. But here me out.

It is easy to forget that Vinicius is still just 20. After all, he joined Real Madrid back in 2018 when he was only 18. But having featured in all but three of Los Blancos’ 38 La Liga games in 2020/21, the prodigy looks set to play a key role for Brazil this year.

He isn’t exactly known for being a prolific goalscorer. However, Brazil is likely to get deep into the tournament, meaning Vinicius will get plenty of chances to find the back of the net.

My 2021 Copa America Golden Boot Predictions

It is no secret that Neymar and Messi are the two obvious frontrunners when it comes to betting on the 2021 Copa America top scorer.

Let’s face it – nobody would be surprised if Messi clinched the Golden Boot. But Argentina hasn’t won South America’s top prize since 1993 – and Messi only managed to score one goal in six matches at the previous tournament.

With that in mind, backing Neymar at 4.00 feels like a great option. He averages a goal every 1.6 games for Brazil and finished the 2020/21 season in good goalscoring form for PSG.

But what about the 2021 Copa America Golden Boot sleepers?

It goes without saying that Vinicius is a massive longshot, while Vargas would also be a risky bet – despite his past record. However, I really like the look of Cavani at 15.00. If the Man Utd striker can pick up where he left off in Europe, he could light up South America this summer.

That concludes my predictions for the 2021 Copa America top goalscorer. If you’re looking for more advice on the tournament, make sure you check out our Copa America betting guide.

Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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