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Odds and Predictions for the Next UK Labour Party Leader

| October 8, 2021 1:00 pm PDT

Odds for the next leader of the Labour Party are available to bet on.

Keir Starmer is the current leader of the Labour Party but is not the most popular figure to have occupied the hot seat.

Although the former Director of Public Prosecutions has steadied the ship following a disastrous collapse in the 2019 UK General Election, Starmer’s vision is considered too centrist for many supporters.

His unsuccessful attempts to change the “one member, one vote” system in place for electing leaders has also added further pressure to the Leader of the Opposition.

Today, I’ll be taking a look at the odds for the top candidates to replace Starmer as leader of Labour. There are two clear contenders, as well as a few outsiders that warrant attention.

Are you betting on the next UK Labour Party leader? Keep reading for a breakdown of who to look at.

Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham
  • Odds: +200
  • Current Position Held: Mayor of Greater Manchester
  • Age: 51

According to the latest odds for the next Labour leader, Andy Burnham is the top candidate.

The “King of the North” is a popular figure in the party, especially with those who have seemingly lost faith in Keir Starmer.

You can add those who never had any faith in the current Labour leader to that list as well.

Perhaps more telling are the results of a poll conducted in the summer that showed a whopping 69% of the party’s members would prefer Burnham to lead them forward.

Furthermore, four in ten of the party’s members would be in favor of Starmer with Burnham emerging as a leading figure in British politics following his battles with the incumbent Tory Government during the peak of the global pandemic.

Burnham’s odds also reflect his excellent handling of key matters and the development of Manchester in his current role as mayor, which is in direct contrast to what many on the left perceive of Starmer’s failures in leading the party.

One potential stumbling block for Burnham, however, is that he has not committed himself to seek leadership following failed attempts in the past.

That’s understandable. After all, the 51-year-old has enjoyed something of a political rejuvenation since leaving Westminster. But perhaps the pull of replacing the “timid Starmer” in the Labour hot seat could prove to be too strong.

“I get asked it relentlessly: would I ever go back? So, the answer is, I would, but it’s not any time soon.”

If you are betting on Burnham becoming the next Labour leader after Keir Starmer, the odds are short when compared to the next top candidate for the role.

Angela Rayner

Angela Rayner
  • Odds: +600
  • Current Position Held: Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for the Future of Work
  • Age: 41

Rayner ruled herself out of the running to be the next Labour Party leader when Jeremy Corbin left his post.

Starmer got the job before making the decision to fire her from her role as party chair and national campaigns coordinator. This caused quite the stir in the party and created a bit of a rift between the two.

The obvious choice for hard-left voters, Rayner’s fiery approach and hard-headed style will appeal to younger voters who want to see the party represent more hardcore socialist ethics.

But is Rayner leadership material?

At a recent Labour conference, Rayner was alleged to call out sitting Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other Tories as “scum”, while refusing to apologize for further comments when asked about her verbal attack on the opposition.

The abrasive Rayner ruffled the feathers within her own party by later claiming that she would only retract those comments if Johnson apologized for his own alleged “homophobic, racist, and misogynistic” words.

“I think he needs to apologize for comments he has made in the past. I will apologize when Boris apologizes for saying the comments he has made, I will retract that he is scum.”

Starmer later claimed that Rayner’s apology was a “matter for her,” but the outburst will have harmed her chances of replacing the former Director of Public Prosecutions.

Rayner, the Labour deputy leader, is associated with “Corbynite” politics. Although she has tried to shake that tag off, this poorly-worded, eyebrow-raising attack has only helped to give her detractors the fuel they need to keep her pigeonholed.

The odds for Rayner to be the next Labour leader are +600 with the best sites for betting on politics.

Other Candidates to Become Next Labour Leader

Lisa Nandy

Lisa Nandy (+700) is the third betting favorite to be the next Labour leader.

The incumbent Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs is, like Starmer, more centrist in her politics.

A vocal opponent of former leader Corbyn, Nandy previously supported Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s deal on leaving the EU and would be a made-to-order replacement for Starmer if he chose to step down.

Nandy could be popular with those who believe it’s time for a woman to run the party and could be a great bet to take the hot seat at those odds. But her opposition to Corbyn and roguish reputation could work against her.

Dawn Butler (+800) came in last in the previous running for leadership in 2020.

Pro-EU and more a “leftie,” Butler stepped back from the frontbench in protest of the triggering of Article 50, which put motions for Brexit into effect.

Butler returned as Shadow Secretary of State for Women and Equalities in 2017 before being demoted from the Shadow Cabinet by Starmer last year.

Yvette Cooper (+1250) and Rosena Allin-Khan (+2000) fit the bill for some, but their lack of experience and influence make them outsiders for the race to the Labour hot seat.

Clive Lewis (+2500) and David Lammy (+2500) are highly unlikely to put themselves forward for the role, and they are not considered contenders.

Sportsbetting.ag has more odds for the next Labour Party leader after Keir Starmer, but I wouldn’t be too keen on any of the names past Butler.

Who Will Replace Starmer as Labour Leader?

At this point in time, Andy Burnham appears to be the obvious choice.

But when betting on politics, it’s always worth keeping in mind that heroes can become zeros in the blink of an eye. The Mayor of Manchester might be knocking it out of the park in 2021, but there’s always the potential for a slip-up.

Angela Rayner has done herself no favors with her scathing verbal attacks on the Conservatives. Not only has it harmed her reputation with moderates and centrists. It has also raised questions over how effective she would be as a leader.

With the Labour Party undergoing a major period of transition, stability is key. And if you’re looking for a solid outside bet to become the next Labour leader, Lisa Nandy is a great shout.

Dawn Butler has a moderate chance. But given her strong support for Jeremy Corbyn, she could see her path to victory littered with obstacles.

Burnham and Nandy are the two candidates I’d favor right now. But let’s see what happens over the next few months.

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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