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Odds and Prediction for Betting on Who Will Die First in Season 11 of The Walking Dead

| July 6, 2021 8:57 am PDT

It’s been a bit since I thought about betting on what happens next on The Walking Dead. Part of that has to do with the show being on break after concluding season 10.

Most entertainment betting sites haven’t offered many The Walking Dead prop bets since Andrew Lincoln (Rick Grimes) left the show, either. Maybe they’re getting a bit nostalgic as the final season of the show approaches.

The Walking Dead season 11 doesn’t officially return to AMC until late August, but some of the top sites for betting on entertainment are already wondering what will happen. Certainly, a lot of death and loose ends being tied off, I’d imagine.

While the return of The Walking Dead is exciting, the fact that the original series that spawned a global phenomenon is ending is sad. At least we can all make a little extra money as we send the “mothership” off.

The big prop hanging over our heads like a dark cloud is who will die first in The Walking Dead season 11? I look over the odds in this post, and come to the horrific (and hopefully profitable) conclusion.

Note: There will be some spoilers in this post; references to previously killed characters, storylines, etc.

Odds for Which Character Will Die First

Above are the odds for who will die first on The Walking Dead season 11, per Bovada. Kudos to Bovada for offering this bet, as I personally miss the days of betting on The Walking Dead and Game of Thrones death props.

I think there will be much to gain from waiting a bit, as the official season 11 trailer will drop, and set photos will leak, and rumors will be aplenty. For now, all you really have to go on is these odds, online speculation, and the season 11 teaser trailer.

These The Walking Dead season 11 death odds are certainly interesting, for a few reasons.

Here is what stands out for me; Alden is the favorite to die first, some key characters are in the mix, and some big ones aren’t even listed.

Do I really think the likes of Carol, Daryl, or Negan are going to be the first character to die in The Walking Dead season 11? Of course not, but as a bettor and fan of the show, I’d like to at least see them listed.

I’d imagine the oddsmakers are trying to keep things relatively realistic, though, while also inserting some big names that could possibly get the axe early.

To help you decide which The Walking Dead character will die first in season 11, I’ll go over the top contenders and a few sleepers, before coming to a final prediction.

Characters Most Likely to Die First

The odds arguably tell you the characters most likely to die first in season 11 of The Walking Dead, but the order may not necessarily be correct.

It’s a show about zombies with copious amounts of killing, and it’s the final season. People are going to die, okay?

The point is to project who is most likely to die first. This is a tough call usually, because we want (and also don’t want) a big death to be dropped on us, and the shows tend to ease us in with more of a no-name death.

That said, here are the leading candidates in my opinion.

Alden (+190) 

This is a good one if the show wants to get the ball rolling early and just kill off a character who has lingered, but isn’t vital to the season 11 story.

One thing I’ve learned over the years when trying to predict who will die on The Walking Dead is if a character’s narrative closes, their time on the show soon ends.

Alden really has nothing keeping him hitched to this wagon.

Suffice to say, Alden qualifies as an early season 11 casualty.

He just isn’t a relevant character at all anymore, and the +190 odds are plenty inviting. Then again, perhaps the show has plans of beefing up his story for the final season, so you do need to consider a more dramatic death coming right away.

Yumiko (+500)

I’m actually pretty surprised to see Yumiko’s odds this short. I felt she’d clock in as an intriguing sleeper, but she’s priced as a likely character to die early in season 11.

There isn’t a lot that directly points to her dying. She’s a strong character, and of her initial group that entered the TWD universe, she’s probably the last one I’d pick to get killed in battle.

That said, she’s a big enough character that her death would sting a bit, and would be a mild surprise.

I’d like to see her make it to the end, but the fact that her odds to be killed first are favorable gives me cause for pause.

Connie (+1000)

This one is tough. I like Connie, but I’m not sure she makes sense as a long-term character.

The main issue? She’s a love interest for Daryl, but we already know that he and Carol will be off together in a spin-off series.

Obviously, Daryl could always just leave her behind, but the easier way to separate them would be to have her die. The value is good, she’s not a huge character, and the logic checks out.

Sleeper Bets Worth Targeting

This whole thing is unpredictable. The Walking Dead loves to be dramatic, they like to mix up timelines, and they change deaths compared to how they went down in the comics.

Because of that, deaths don’t go down quite as fans think they will, or when they assume they will. Suffice to say, there is a lot of room for some upside with a prop bet like this.

Pretty much every death would bring back some solid money, but there could be merit in aiming high and betting on a massive character being killed off.

Father Gabriel (+2500)

Aaron and King Ezekiel are absolutely at risk, but are they likely to be the first character killed off in season 11? I doubt it.

Father Gabriel stands out a bit more. Not only does he die (brutally, mind you), in the comics, but his attachment to Rosita could be used to propel her character for the remainder of the show.

And for what it’s worth, the guy who plays Father Gabriel (Seth Gilliam) thinks it’d be one heck of a way to go.

The area in which Gabriel dies in the comics has been teased in the past, too, while you have to think the arrival of the Reapers is going to be met with a grand departure.

Could that be Father Gabriel? At +2500, I’d be willing to bet that it is.

Magna (+2500)

This is a middle of the road character. Magna is a key piece to the puzzle right now, but people need to start dropping, and she is absolutely among the first to go when it comes to the key characters.

It’s arguable that only one of Magna or Yumiko will survive, and someone from that grouping has to be knocked off eventually.

Magna may be the safer bet, and she surprisingly has amazing odds for willing bettors.

I like Magna, but the value here is really tough to ignore, especially when it’s pretty debatable that the odds associated with her, and Yumiko could be flipped.

Predicting Who Will Die First in Season 11 of The Walking Dead

If you’re betting on who will die first in season 11 of The Walking Dead, you need to keep three things in mind.

Most of the big stars are probably off limits, just about everyone else is fair game, and you’re betting on which The Walking Dead character will die first.

TWD showrunners could always throw us for a loop. Rick Grimes got written out of the main series, Carl and Glenn got killed off, and characters have had their deaths swapped, expedited, or delayed.

That said, here’s how I rate the bigger names in terms of probability of being killed in season 11 – earlier or otherwise.

  • Negan (Survives)
  • Maggie (Survives)
  • Carol (Survives)
  • Daryl (Survives)
  • Rosita (Survives)
  • Eugene (Survives)
  • Aaron (Dies at the end)
  • King Ezekiel (Dies in the middle)

How long does season 11 wait to go for the jugular, though? And could someone like Connie, Alden, or Magna precede the first truly epic, jaw-dropping death?

Obviously, nobody knows for sure, but I think the best bet right now is Magna at +2500. She isn’t a vital character for the story that’s going to be told, but she’s been around long enough to be a tough death for fans to swallow.

The show is going to get its feet wet with an early death or two in season 11. Alden is even less meaningful for the show and could be their method of doing so, or someone like Father Gabriel could be used to launch other storylines, as well.

But when you look at the combination of character worth, importance to story, shock value, and pure betting value, Magna fits the bill for me. 

Who do you think will die first in season 11 of The Walking Dead? Feel free to join the conversation in the comments below.

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Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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