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Odds and Advice for Betting on the First EPL Manager to Get Sacked in 2021/22

| August 8, 2021 2:22 am PDT

At the start of every English Premier League season, predicting which manager will get fired first is always fun. Well, not for the managers themselves. But for those who enjoy betting on the EPL, this particular market invariably dishes up excellent value.

The cut-throat nature of the Premier League means that we never have to wait too long for the first managerial causality of the campaign. As soon as a team records a few below-par results, the sacking rumors begin.

With the new EPL season set to kick off on Friday, August 13, there will almost certainly be at least one managerial causality before the turn of the year. So, it’s time to place your bets!

Will Ralph Hasenhuttl make it to Christmas as Southampton boss? Can Patrick Vieira hit the ground running at Crystal Palace? Or will Watford’s Xisco be the first EPL manager to get sacked in 2021/22?

After looking at the EPL sack race odds, I will carry out analysis of all the leading contenders and also discuss whether any outsiders are in danger.

Latest Odds for the Premier League Sack Race

Patrick Vieira7.00
Steve Bruce8.00
Ralph Hasenhuttl10.00
Bruno Lage12.00
Graham Potter13.00
Mikel Arteta13.00
Nuno Espirito Santo15.00
Rafa Benitez15.00
Daniel Farke17.00
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer17.00
Thomas Frank19.00
Dean Smith21.00
Sean Dyche26.00
Marcelo Bielsa34.00
David Moyes34.00
Jurgen Klopp34.00
Brendan Rodgers34.00
Thomas Tuchel51.00
Pep Guardiola101.00

Patrick Vieira (7.00) and Xisco (7.00) are the bookmakers’ joint favorites here. That is understandable, though, as both coaches are new to Premier League management.

Steve Bruce (8.00) finds himself just behind the two frontrunners, with Ralph Hasenhuttl (10.00) also among the favorites.

At the opposite end of the bookies’ EPL sack race odds list, Pep Guardiola (101.00) and Thomas Tuchel (51.00) aren’t expected to leave anytime soon.

There are plenty of interesting prices to consider here. Make sure you check out all the leading online sportsbooks if you’re betting on which Premier League manager gets fired first, as the odds can fluctuate.

Vieira Is Already Under Pressure at Palace

Remember what happened to Frank de Boer back in 2017? I’ll remind you.

The Dutchman was sacked as Crystal Palace manager after just five games and 77 days in charge at Selhurst Park. That tells you everything you need to know about Palace chairman Steve Parish.

Although Vieira was only appointed as the new Eagles boss last month, he won’t have long to prove himself in South London. If the team gets off to a poor start this year, Vieira will pay the price.

To make matters worse, the Frenchman replaced long-standing manager Roy Hodgson, who enjoyed four steady years at the club. It won’t be easy for him to pick up where Hodgson left off.

It is worth noting that Vieira’s managerial record isn’t exactly great, either. The 45-year-old has managed MLS side New York City FC and French team Nice in the past, winning less than 50% of his matches at both clubs.

Club Games Wins Draws Losses Wins %
New York City 90 40 22 28 44.44%
OGC Nice 89 35 22 32 39.33%

Watford’s Managerial History Will Worry Xisco

Just like Palace, Watford is renowned for making rash managerial decisions. In fact, the last time the Hornets were in the Premier League, they fired their manager just four matches into the campaign.

Current coach Xisco is the club’s sixth permanent manager since 2018. Hayden Mullins has also had two stints as interim boss during that period.

You only have to take a quick glance at the list of recent Watford managers to understand why Xisco is one of the favorites in the Premier League sack race.

  • Vladimir Ivic (August 15, 2020 – December 21, 2020)
  • Hayden Mullins (July 19, 2020 – August 15, 2020)
  • Nigel Pearson (December 6, 2019 – July 19, 2020)
  • Hayden Mullins (December 2, 2019 – December 6, 2019)
  • Quique Sanchez Flores (September 7, 2019 – December 1, 2019)
  • Javi Gracia (January 21, 2018 – September 7, 2019)
  • Marco Silva (May 27, 2017 – January 21, 2018)

In fairness to Xisco, he did exceptionally well last season – guiding the Hornets to automatic promotion from the Championship. The Spaniard took over midway through the campaign, registering 18 wins, three draws, and six losses in 27 games (66.67% wins).

But all of that is totally irrelevant now.

Considering Javia Gracia lasted only four games before getting fired at the beginning of the 2019/20 campaign, I can’t help but think that Xisco’s days at Vicarage Road are numbered.

How Long Can Bruce Last at Newcastle?

If I’m being completely honest, I’m surprised that Steve Bruce is still the Newcastle manager.

As a former Sunderland boss, Bruce was instantly hated by a large portion of the Toon Army when he replaced Rafa Benitez in the St. James’ Park hot seat in 2019. However, he is about to enter his third season at the club.

The 60-year-old has done a good job over the past couple of years, guiding the Magpies to a thirteenth-place finish in 2019/20 before finishing twelfth last term. But with reckless billionaire Mike Ashley at the helm, who knows what will happen next?

Newcastle has one of the most loyal fanbases in the country. If the team gets off to a bad start this year, the supporters will surely be baying for a managerial change.

Hasenhuttl Is Walking on Thin Ice with Saints

Less than a year ago, Southampton was sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League table. But a terrible second half to the 2020/21 campaign saw the south coast side finish fifteenth.

Saints ended up winning just five of their final 26 league games last term, suffering a whopping 16 defeats in the process. A six-match losing streak across January and February, which included a humiliating 9-0 thrashing to Manchester United, could prove to be the beginning of the end for Ralph Hasenhuttl.

Signed from RB Leipzig, Hasenhuttl was viewed by many as an excellent appointment in 2018. But as you can see, he has lost more games than he has won at Southampton.

Games Wins Draws Losses Goal Difference Wins %
113 42 23 48 -25 37.17%

On top of that, the departure of star striker Danny Ings certainly won’t help the Austrian’s cause. Ings recent joined EPL rival Aston Villa, having netted most Southampton’s goals over the past two seasons.

Following a calamitous end to the previous campaign, it will probably only take a handful of bad results for Hasenhuttl to get fired.

What About the Bookies’ Outsiders?

It isn’t just managers at the Premier League’s smaller clubs who are in danger of getting fired. With so much at stake, coaches at some of the EPL’s elite sides could lose their job this year.

Here are three sack race outsiders to consider.

Arteta Must Start Well This Year

It is no secret that Arsenal endured a below-par 2020/21 campaign. The Gunners finished six points shy of the Champions League places last season and only managed to win 18 of their 38 league games.

Ultimately, the Arsenal hierarchy expects Champions League soccer every year. If things start going wrong at the beginning of the coming season, don’t be surprised if Arteta is the man to blame.

While making my bold predictions for the 2021/22 Premier League season, I actually suggested that Arteta could be the first managerial causality of the campaign.

Norwich Could Part Ways with Farke

Don’t get me wrong, I think it would be extremely harsh if Norwich sacked Daniel Farke. The German boss has guided the Canaries to not one, but two promotions to the top-flight in the past three seasons – so he clearly knows what he’s doing.

That said, Norwich managed to win just five EPL matches on their way to finish 13 points adrift at the bottom of the table in 2019/20. They could struggle to improve on that record this time around.

If the newly promoted team get off to a poor start, the powers that be at Norwich may opt to get rid of Farke early on to avoid a repeat of what happened last time.

At 17.00, Farke looks like a great outside bet.

Would Liverpool Fire Klopp?

Liverpool wouldn’t sack Jurgen Klopp, would they? Nobody would be surprised if Klopp led Liverpool to a second Premier League title in three years.

But if the Reds suffer another mid-season collapse, the German’s job will surely be under threat.

Liverpool went on a dismal run before turning things around and rescuing a third-place finish last term. If the same thing happens again in 2021/22, John Henry and co. could choose to dispatch of Klopp and start a fresh.

Crazier things have happened, right?

Which EPL Manager Will Get Sacked First in 2021/22?

No matter what you make of this season’s Premier League sack race, the bookmakers’ odds are seriously attractive.

I mean, to begin with, the joint favorites are priced at 7.00. And throughout the entire 2021/22 EPL sack race odds list, there are plenty of realistic contenders with very generous prices.

In my eyes, backing one – or more than one – of the favorites is a good idea. Even if you pick two or three candidates in this market, you can still make a tasty profit.

Feel free to use my analysis to aid your predictions for which Premier League manager will get fired first this season. Alternatively, don’t be afraid to pick one of the outsiders.

After all, this is the Premier League – anything can happen! Even the best young EPL players might not be able to save their manager from the sack.

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Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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  1. Dennis Rehbock August 14, 2021 at 6:05 am

    Artetta…….Arsenal manager must go for sure and manage the waste removal at SHEFFIELD.



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