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Updated Odds to Win the 2021-22 College Football Playoff National Championship

By Dan Vasta in College Football
| November 2, 2021 7:38 am PDT

The college football season has been insane so far. Halloween weekend was a treat for all the fans that witnessed plenty of west coast games after dark.

BYU and Virginia were a video game with all the points, and the day was known for Top 12 teams that were underdogs on the day.

Three of the top 10 and four of the top 12 ranked squads all lost. Kentucky was a slight favorite at Mississippi State and never had much of a shot after the first quarter. The Wildcats are a heavy run-oriented team, and they fell behind multiple scores.

Notre Dame got a run for their money against North Carolina, but they came away victorious in South Bend.

Ole Miss was a slight dog at Auburn, and it was the Tigers that won the battle at the line of scrimmage. Matt Corral struggled to stay healthy early in the game, and their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone proved costly.

Iowa and Michigan both were disappointing for different reasons on the road in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes were disastrous on offense, but Michigan led by 16 points late in the third quarter.

The landscape has once again changed. The CFP discussion is much different than it was a week ago. Here are the latest odds to win the College Football Playoff national championship via SportsBetting.ag.

NCAA Football Championship Odds Entering Week 10

Ohio State+400
Michigan State+4000
Notre Dame+10000
Texas A&M+10000

The odds of winning the national championship are changing by the week, but the Big Ten continues to dominate the polls, rankings, and odds.

Kenneth Walker stole the show for the Spartans against the Wolverines. The game was epic, and the amount of scoring made it one of the better games of the entire college football season.

The odds impacted show that Michigan State is for real. The road ahead is challenging, but Mel Tucker continues to connect on all the right buttons.

Ohio State (+400) and Oklahoma (+1000) are creeping up with their odds as the schedule winds down. The difference between these two slates is night and day. Oklahoma may not have to play another ranked team excluding Baylor (+8000), albeit they may see them twice as they did in 2019.

The Buckeyes (+400) have two likely Top 10 tussles against Michigan State and Michigan. Then they would have to win the Big Ten title game as well. The road to the playoff is never equal for some teams.

The odds alter by the game, which makes for an entertaining November ahead.

Who is Georgia’s Top Challenger?

The top challenger for Georgia is the million-dollar question that everybody would love to know.

Many are pointing at Alabama still, and they bring a lot to the table. Their offense could be the only one to test the Georgia secondary.

Nobody has been able to sniff anything close to a run game against the Dawgs defense. Look at what Georgia has done thus far against the run.

  • Clemson: 2 yards rushing
  • UAB: 127 yards rushing
  • South Carolina: 82 yards rushing
  • Vanderbilt: 53 yards rushing
  • Arkansas: 75 yards rushing
  • Kentucky: 51 yards rushing
  • Florida: 161 yards rushing

The Bulldogs have allowed the fewest points through eight games in the past 50 years in the SEC. Look at the company UGA has joined.

  • Alabama, 1979: 40 points allowed
  • Georgia, 1971: 46 points allowed
  • Georgia, 2021: 46 points allowed
  • Alabama, 1975: 50 points allowed

Alabama has an NFL running back in Brian Robinson Jr. that can drag defenders for a first down, but Georgia would be up for the challenge if they meet in Atlanta on the first Saturday in December.

Bryce Young could have a potential Heisman on the line in that game, but others are worthy of getting a shot at dethroning the top team in the country.

Cincinnati needs to continue to dominate if they want a shot at revenge from their Peach Bowl loss to Georgia last season. The Bearcats have pressure as a loss would knock them out, and another narrow victory could be a reason they get left out.

Their upcoming schedule doesn’t help either.

  • vs. Tulsa (3-5)
  • At South Florida (2-6)
  • vs. SMU (7-1)
  • At East Carolina (4-4)

Ohio State has picked up momentum with their ability to outscore any team they face. CJ Stroud continues to gain more confidence, but TreVeyon Henderson went bonkers. The freshman superstar toted the pigskin 28 times for 152 yards and a score.

He had a 68-yard scamper that set up his lone score that proved to be pivotal. Ohio State had fewer than 20 yards in the first half, but they finished the job in the second half. The other squad that Ohio State could eventually see on December 31st is Oklahoma.

The Sooners did not mess around against Texas Tech. Caleb Williams had over 400 yards passing with six touchdowns. He may not win the Heisman, but he looks strong under center, and Oklahoma is a dangerous offensive squad.

Oklahoma didn’t attempt to run the ball as much against the Red Raiders either. Value is there as the rest of the Big 12 continues to crumble. Iowa State and Texas keep taking losses. Baylor has a loss, but OU gets two weeks to prepare for the Bears in Waco.

Jump on their value to reach the CFP and to win it all before it shrinks by the week. If you want to wager on somebody not named Georgia, the Sooners would be your team to select.

Who is Rising?

The team that has picked up momentum after every week has been Michigan State (+4000). They survived in overtime earlier in the year against a reeling Nebraska squad, but they have relied on their defense and rushing attack.

Kenneth Walker was a stud at Wake Forest, but he has become a Heisman front runner after finding paydirt five times against Michigan. The Maize and Blue defense was prepared, but failed miserably at tackling in open space and the backfield.

Walker is such a slippery back with a quick burst.

Look at these season numbers for the MSU running back on the year.

  • 1,194 yards rushing
  • 14 rushing TD
  • 175 carries

Sparty controls its destiny if it can run the table in the Big Ten.

The top division in college football has three Top 10 squads, and there is a strong chance that one of them appears in the College Football Playoff.

We could take it a step further. I would argue that one of those three will have a great shot to play in the national title.

Michigan State is the only other Big Ten squad besides Ohio State to appear in the CFP. They took one on the chin against Alabama, but MSU looks like one of their better offenses in the conference.

They were not close to a preseason Top 25 squad, but Mel Tucker has turned into the consensus national coach of the year. Their odds in the preseason were +200000 on most consensus sportsbooks.

They were irrelevant basement dwellers in the Big Ten with shorter odds than nearly every team. The way their odds changed in consensus sportsbooks was impressive.

Early October+8000
Start of November+4000

They quickly moved to +15000 after the first four weeks, and they saw themselves ranked. Still, the CFP discussion was far away, with a handful of Big Ten squads looking better on paper. Every week a few teams were falling by the wayside.

The Spartans continue to flourish, and they suddenly have realistic expectations of playing for a national title if they can handle their business in November.

The Biggest Faller

The Hawkeyes (now +20000) are one of the biggest fallers in the country. After suffering two consecutive losses, I question if they can avoid another eventual loss in November.

The bye week did not help them as they coughed the ball up three times in their own territory. Quarterback Spencer Petras has been abysmal taking care of the ball these past two weeks.

The offense cannot find any running room, and the opposing defenses in the Big Ten have begged them to throw the ball on obvious passing downs. To say they have struggled would be an understatement.

Look at these ugly numbers in the past two games combined.

  • 327 yards passing
  • 100 yards rushing
  • 26 First Downs
  • 7 Turnovers
  • 734 Yards Allowed
  • First-Half Points: 7
  • Third Down Conversions (Offense): 9-for-26

The Hawkeyes are out of the CFP race with two losses but winning the West could be over as well. Wisconsin now owns the tiebreaker, and teams like Minnesota and Purdue have a shot to finish ahead of them as well.

Iowa once had their odds to win it all at +2000, and they have officially fallen apart. At +20000, these past two losses were grueling, but it was the way they lost. Attempting to impress the voters and the committee is vital.

They looked a lot like the squad that was fully capable of losing three or four games due to an inept offense. The oddsmakers have adjusted, and they may have to settle for an Outback or Music City Bowl instead.

Doubling Down on Michigan?

The Wolverines saw their odds hover around +3000 to +3500 for the past few weeks.

They are now at +6600, and the end of September was the last time they had longer odds to win it all. One could double down on the Wolverines despite their recent struggles and loss to their bitter rivals.

The Michigan defense picked an inopportune time to drop the ball in the fourth quarter on both sides of the ball. Their inability to pin their ears back and load the box to slow Kenneth Walker down was disappointing.

However, they still have everything in front of them to appear in the College Football Playoff.

They will need Michigan State to lose to Ohio State later in the season to force the Wolverines home finale against the Buckeyes to be a game that would decide the Big Ten East.

A three-way tiebreaker would be bonkers. Lots of games have to go your way, but the Wolverines will only have their odds shorten up every week if they continue to win.

Jim Harbaugh is now 0-12 on the road and in neutral-site games against AP Top 15 squads in his tenure with Michigan. That will need to change if they expect to win a national title, but they won’t need to get one before January.

A road trip against Penn State is likely a matchup against an unranked Nittany Lion squad. They host Ohio State, and a win there could give them a crack at Indianapolis. If they were fortunate to play in the B1G title, the West winner might be unranked.

There is plenty of drama with any Big Ten team at the moment, but there isn’t better value than the one hailing from Ann Arbor.


These odds suggest that a few juggernauts are staying alive. Still, there are a few teams that nobody saw emerging back in the preseason.

One team that I thought highly of in the preseason was Cincinnati. The Bearcats (+2500) are sneaking around the chicken coop.

They are in the running, but they need to step their game up. In consecutive weeks in the first half, they have failed to make the necessary statement to win impressively.

Many games remain on the docket for these national title contenders, so be sure to check back here for the latest college football predictions and picks.



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