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NFL Win Total Betting – Predicting Buccaneers’ Wins in 2020
Tom Brady puts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back on the map. There’s no denying that. Whether it ends up simply being good PR or translates into a title, however, remains to be seen.
So far, the hype is undeniable. The best Super Bowl betting sites list the Bucs as viable title threats (+1200 Super Bowl odds), after all.
While that may be a reach, it’s tough to fight the idea of Brady (as well as the addition of Rob Gronkowski) making the Bucs at least a little better. After finishing 7-9 last year despite Jameis Winston tossing 30 interceptions, logic suggests a bump.
Still, it’s tough to pinpoint the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ win total predictions for 2020. The way they’re priced at BetOnline and other sportsbooks doesn’t exactly make it easier.
Join me as I break down their win total wagers and gauge what the best bet is for the Buccaneers this year.
Buccaneers’ Win Total Over/Under
Tampa Bay was pretty competitive despite some truly horrific quarterback play at times in 2019. The team found a way to win seven games and probably should have won several more.
Their nine losses included seven by eight points or fewer, while their defense didn’t do them any favors by allowing 30+ points eight times on the year.
With the defense hopefully better and with a more controlled Brady under center, Tampa Bay is a real threat for a big leap.
Factor in a weak NFC South (beyond the Saints, of course) and the reality that Brady has won fewer than 10 games just once in his illustrious career, and the over feels like the call.
Over 9.5 Wins-140
Buccaneers’ Exact Win Total
The Buccaneers may not go all the way in 2020, but they’re bound to be better. It’d take something catastrophic to see them free fall to the 0-4 win range, while a 5-9 window also feels fairly unlikely.
A pedestrian 8-8 or 9-7 finish isn’t impossible, but you’re not getting enough value to roll the dice on Tom Brady’s arrival essentially having zero impact.
A magical 15+ win season is not out of the question. Brady has honestly never had an offense quite this loaded, as it features Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, while he’ll have his tried and true tight end in the Gronk.
Brady has also engineered the only 16-0 regular season run in league history, while he’s at least pushed for 15 wins three other times.
Tampa Bay’s logical range is 10-14 wins, however. The Bucs should be better than they were in 2019, and outside of the Saints, their division should give them some easy wins. They also have winnable matchups with the Broncos, Raiders, Giants, and Lions on the docket — all of which could lead them to eight wins alone.
The Brady effect will prove useful during the regular season, at the very least. The 10-14 win range looks like the way to go.
Betting on the Buccaneers in 2020
Unless you think the Buccaneers will be awful, the bets are 10-14 (-145) and over 9.5 wins (-140). They are essentially the same wager and very similar odds, so just go with the win total over/under since it offers slightly better value.
If you are on board with the Bucs, you could go the extra mile and bet on them to steal the NFC South or even win Super Bowl 55. Neither are impossible, but simply banking on Tampa Bay to win 10+ games in 2020 feels like the best route.
Totally against the Bucs this year? Then bet on the Saints to win the NFC South. I’m not really into betting on Tampa Bay to win fewer than 10 games, but if you don’t think they find a lot of success, a very good Saints team repeating as division champs looks like a good play.