NFL Week 10 Preview – Betting Analysis and Free Picks
Published on November 09, 2018
Can the Rams get back on track and secure their ninth win of the season? I’m not going to ask the same question about the Kansas City Chiefs, because that’d be silly.
They’re coming off a 16-point road victory in Cleveland and now are back at Arrowhead Stadium to face a trifling Arizona Cardinals squad.
Patrick Mahomes and company are a whopping 17-point favorite in a game that ESPN’s matchup predictor says KC wins 94% of the time.
So while the Rams and the Chiefs appear to be near shoo-ins to reach 9-1 on the season, the bookies are making us lay a whole bunch of points to capitalize on their situations.
The good news is that Sunday’s slate has a few other contests that we should be paying close attention to.
If you strictly want to know where you can latch onto some value, take a peek at what I’ve gathered.
Here’s a game I’m going to attack using an angle that has proven to be successful in the past. It involves not falling victim to that thing called “overreaction.”
First, we have the Bears, who are coming off a game in which they absolutely dismantled the Bills on the road. Obviously, all Chicago bettors were elated. Then you got the Lions, who failed to reach the end zone during a 15-point loss at Minnesota.
Naturally, plenty of folks will want to stick with the Mitch Trubisky-led team and assume that Chicago wins this one going away.
But I won’t be falling into that category. Especially after shopping my lines and locating a price that I’m finding more and more attractive the deeper I dive into this matchup.
Despite the Bears looking mighty impressive this past Sunday, you have to consider that the opposing QB was a guy named Nathan Peterman.
We all know Nathan is nothing more than a lame excuse for a starting quarterback in the National Football League, so the fact that Chicago blew out Buffalo in Week 9 was fairly predictable.
And don’t worry; I know that Matthew Stafford was sacked ten times against the Vikings in a game in which the Lions offense managed just 209 yards.
But I also know how determined and gritty of a competitor that Stafford is, and I fully expect him to bounce back and play well at Soldier Field.
Remember, the Lions were just a few days removed from trading away their top receiver, Golden Tate. Seeing that offense struggle against a relentless and much-improved defensive scheme in Minnesota shouldn’t have shocked anybody.
Chicago beating up on the Jets and the Bills over the past two weeks was awesome.
Sitting at 5-3 atop the NFC is surely a good feeling for the fans in the Windy City.
But thinking that Sunday’s tilt against a divisional rival like Detroit will be another walk in the park is a bit naïve.
The line had moved from 6 to 6.5, but you can grab it at a full touchdown spread at Bovada.lv. I strongly suggest taking that into account.
The Green Bay Packers are sitting at 3-4-1 and are in need of a victory to stay within reach of a potential playoff berth. The Green and Gold have two lost two straight games, but those were both on the road and against the cream of the crop.
Traveling to Los Angeles and New England to play the Rams and the Patriots in back-to-back weeks is about as tough of a two-game stretch as a team could encounter.
A home game versus the Dolphins should be the perfect recipe for Aaron Rodgers to get his team’s mojo going. Miami might be 5-4 and treading above water for now, but I can assure you that this group is extremely underwhelming for a team who is above .500 in the standings.
For crying out loud, Sam Darnold threw four picks during last week’s game in Miami, and the paltry New York Jets still had a chance to win this game late in the fourth quarter.
Now picture the scenario. The Fins have to fly 1,600 miles to Wisconsin and play a game in a hostile environment where the kickoff temperature will be under freezing.
Look for Mike McCarthy to let A-Rod loose and look for the Packers to have no qualms whatsoever scoring touchdowns.
A sputtering Miami offense that is averaging just 16.7 points over their last three games won’t be able to keep up with the Packers’ fast-paced attack, which is why I have no issues laying 10 points in this one.
After doing my homework and being active on the top football betting sites, I don’t have to lay -110, either!
It doesn’t matter what game or what sport you are betting. Placing wagers intelligently is about spotting value and attacking it when the time is appropriate.
Enter this week’s contest between the Atlanta Falcons and the Cleveland Browns. Generally, finding even an extra half-point in a line could mean the difference between making a profitable bet or not.
So when I found out that the Browns are +4.5 in some places at -110 but are hanging out on Bovada.lv at +6 at just -105, I stopped dead in my tracks. Don’t you find that to be a pretty massive discrepancy for an NFL line?
The more research I did, the more I started to see scenarios of the Browns keeping this one close, if not perhaps pulling off the upset. And if you think I am ignoring what happened just last week, I can promise you I am not.
Atlanta was firing on all cylinders in Week 9 during a 24-point thrashing of the Redskins. The Browns were getting pummeled by the Chiefs on the road, but come on – who didn’t see that coming?
I’m not forgetting that the Falcons defense is ranked 29th in the league in points per game allowed and aren’t much better in terms of total yards allowed (28th in the NFL). Baker Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight games, and a depleted Atlanta secondary should allow the former Sooner to have a field day on his home turf.
Before destroying Washington in Week 9, Atlanta had played two road games in 2018. They scored 12 points and lost to Philly in the first before getting tortured by the Steelers 41-17 in the second.
As dominating as Matt Ryan has been playing in the A-T-L, he’s not really the same quarterback when playing as a visitor. The stats prove it.
|Matt Ryan’s 2018 Home/Road Splits|
|Completion Percentage||QB Rating||TD/INT Ratio||Yards/Game||Yards/Attempt|
I think playing in chilly temperatures in Cleveland won’t be enough to completely halt the Falcons attack, but it sure as heck should slow it down. I suspect Baker will be fired up to help his team snap their four-game losing streak, and I think he’ll have a reasonable shot at doing it.
We don’t have to pounce on the Brownies getting the W, because the smart play is to take the additional 1.5 points we can grab hold of at Bovada.lv and hope they at least keep it close.
Look closely at this matchup. The line doesn’t really reflect the records of these two teams, and that’s what might scare away most potential bettors. The casual NFL fan might look at this on paper and be curious as to why a 3-5 team is giving 3 points to a 5-3 squad.
Well, I can solemnly tell you that it isn’t a mistake and that your computer screen is correct. The 3-5 Bucs are favored against the Redskins because the fact of the matter is that when playing in Tampa, this team has been pretty darn good.
The Buccaneers have only played three games this season at Raymond James Stadium, and they’ve performed favorably during each occasion. They knocked off the defending Super Bowl Champs 27-21 in Week 2 and almost beat the Steelers (lost 30-27) the following week on Monday Night Football.
This team has lost four of their past five games since then, but all four of those losses came on the road!
Their lone win since Week 3 came against Cleveland on their home field, which brings me to Sunday afternoon’s game against the reeling Redskins.
Washington was 5-2 and had a chance at home last Sunday to really separate themselves in a mediocre NFC East division. Instead, Jay Gruden’s bunch looked completely out of sorts and was absolutely decimated with brutal injuries.
Both of the Redskins’ starting guards were lost for the season, as was deep threat Paul Richardson.
Having to overcome these losses in this short of time is a tall task when you take into account how explosive Tampa has been in their own building.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging a silly passing 406.5 yards during 2018 home games and has given the Bucs an abundance of scoring chances in the process.
Washington is going to have a tough time fending off the Eagles to remain in control of this division, and I think they take another step backward in Week 10.
Betting NFL games isn’t always about picking the most glamorous matchups. It’s about searching the betting sheet and unlocking the most advantageous spots.
I scoped all of Sunday’s slate and came up with four games that I think are more than worth taking a serious look at. And when you are ready to fire away on the MNF game, just check out our blog again on Monday.
I’ll reveal my betting advice and give you my pick for the Giants/49ers game, and it’ll be even more in-depth than the previews you found here.
Best of all, it won’t cost you a penny!