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NFL Sunday Gameday Breakdown: Week 15

By Paul Wilson in Sports
| December 14, 2016 12:00 am PDT
Various Different NFL Players With Fire Background

Week 15 in the NFL generally provides some of the best football of the entire year, but some of the most difficult gambling.

As winter and the playoffs move steadily closer, there are just fewer surprises: the public is a lot more certain of what the outcome will be. There are more matchups between divisional opponents (five this week), fewer matchups against teams from opposing conferences (only two this week), and with some teams definitely out and some teams definitely still fighting, it’s much clearer which team has the will to win.

And as every gambler knows, the biggest enemy of gambling value is public certainty.

However, even with a lot of even odds and fewer opportunities to outsmart the gambling public this week, there’s still some good value to be found. So before you get ready to kick back and watch some of the most entertaining football of the entire season, get ready to find all of the value that Week 15 holds for interested parties.

We’ve got you covered with a full preview of the entire NFL.

Below you’ll find each division, listed by standings, with their record, their matchup, the gambling odds of that matchup, playoff percentage, the playoff implications of the game, as well as our quick tips for where the team is trending and how you should bet.

PLEASE NOTE

Chances of making the playoffs/winning the division/getting a first round bye are taken from fivethirtyeight.com, and are based on a prospectus that aggregates 100,000 simulations of how the rest of the season will play out, and which is updated after every game.

 

 

**NOTE: Gambling odds are taken from the sportsbook at Bovada.

Preview:

  • The under in Lions/Giants (41.5, -115)
  • The Raiders ATS (-2.5, -110)
  • The Bucs ATS (+7, -105)
  • The under in Eagles/Ravens (51, -110)
  • The Patriots ATS (-3, -110)
  • The Bucs moneyline (+263)
  • The under in Titans/Chiefs (43, -110)
  • The Colts ATS (+4, -105) and moneyline (+169)
  • The under in Pats/Broncos (44, -110)
  • The over in Dolphins/Jets (38, -110)
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NFC North

Detroit Lions9 – 4
Week 15 Matchup
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+4.5 (-105)
Moneyline
+164
Over/Under
Over 41.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-115)
Chances of Winning Division
76%
Postseason Prospectus
Both NFC North title contenders won last week, but for the Lions it was an unconvincing win over the 3-win Bears. We’ve been saying for several weeks now that the Lions’ 9 wins are built on a pitifully easy schedule, and that trend ends with the Giants and Cowboys for the next two weeks’ matchups. The Lions could easily lose out and miss the playoffs.
Gambling Advice
Matt Stafford’s finger will perhaps limit his throwing ability a little bit, but shouldn’t keep him out of the game. Even if he was healthy, though, we don’t believe that Matt Stafford could lead the Lions to six straight victories, particularly when the Lions leave the dome for the bitter cold of the Meadowlands. If you’re going to put money on the Lions, bet on them not scoring points and take the under.
Green Bay Packers7 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-6.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-264
Over/Under
Over 42.5 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
23%
Postseason Prospectus
Green Bay’s statement win against the Seahawks in Week 14 proved that they are heating up, and a legitimate contender. If they don’t win out, though, they have almost no chance of winning the division, and if they don’t win the division, they probably won’t make the playoffs.
Gambling Advice
Given the fact that the Packers put up 38 points against one of the best defenses in the league in the cold of Lambeau Field last week, we would love to take the over in this matchup against the woeful Bears. However, kickoff temperatures forecasted at -2 degrees with winds of 10 miles per hour give us pause.
Minnesota Vikings7 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-4 (-115)
Moneyline
-200
Over/Under
Over 44.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
19%
Postseason Prospectus
Despite being even with the Packers, the Vikings shot their chances of winning the NFC North by losing a few too many divisional games along the way. But they’re not out just yet.
Gambling Advice
There’s arguments to be made for both teams in this matchup, as well as for the over and the under. It’s hard to say who will come ready to play, so the safest bet may be to simply favor the home team. With even odds across the board, though, there’s not much to report.
Chicago Bears3 – 10
Week 15 Matchup
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+6.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+236
Over/Under
Over 42.5 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The Bears’ season was a lot like their quarterback’s: uninspiring, hard to watch, and over by the middle of the season.
Gambling Advice
There’s no reason to believe that the Bears will do anything other than get crushed by their hated, thriving rivals the Green Bay Packers. There may definitely be value in the over, though, if the Bears’ offense coughs up the ball and lets Green Bay blow them out like they did Seattle.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons8 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons, 4:05 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-11.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-1250
Over/Under
Over 51.5 (-110), Under 51.5 (-110)
Chances of Winning Division
74%
Postseason Prospectus
Having split their two games against the 8–5 Buccaneers this season, the Falcons know that they have to keep winning to edge out Tampa for the division. Based on strength of remaining schedule and division record, the Falcons do have the edge, and facing a team with 12 losses certainly helps Atlanta fans sleep at night.
Gambling Advice
There’s no reason to think this should not be an absolute home blowout, and the 12-to-1 odds reflect that. Taking the Falcons against the spread might be the safest bet, but you’re not likely to get better than even odds in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+7 (-105)
Moneyline
+263
Over/Under
Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
54%
Postseason Prospectus
Having split their two games against the 8–5 Falcons this season, the Bucs know that they have to keep winning to edge out Atlanta for the division. Based on strength of remaining schedule and division record, the Falcons do have the edge, and facing a team with 11 wins certainly won’t help Tampa Bay fans sleep at night.
Gambling Advice
The Bucs might be playing the best football in the NFC right now, and we like the leadership of Jameis Winston. While winning in Dallas is certainly a tall order this season, we think there’s excellent value in taking the Buccaneers against the spread and moneyline; anything can happen on Sunday Night Football, especially when a surging, scrappy team that needs a win goes up against a fading, nervous team that doesn’t.
New Orleans Saints5 – 8
Week 15 Matchup
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+110
Over/Under
Over 50 (-105), Under 50 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
Though you never would have guessed that the two exciting playoff contenders from the NFC South don’t include the Saints or the Panthers in 2016/17, the fact of the matter is that the Saints are now completely out of the race.
Gambling Advice
We liked the under last week, figuring that the Saints’ offense had given up for the season, and true to form New Orleans put up 11 points against the Bucs last week. We’d like to follow that same logic this week, but we have no idea whether the Cardinals will play any defense. The under is getting more action than the over, but with two playoff-irrelevant teams in a nationally televised game, it’s hard to say whether it will be high-scoring or not.
Carolina Panthers5 – 8
Week 15 Matchup
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins, 8:30 EST Monday, 12/19/16
Spread
+4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+189
Over/Under
Over 51 (-110), Under 51 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
Like the annoying partygoer that didn’t even drink that much, the Panthers managed to get a Super Bowl hangover even without a Super Bowl victory. After 15 wins last season, the Panthers have only 5 this season, and have been out of playoff contention for several weeks.
Gambling Advice
Stay away: We don’t think it’s likely at all that the Panthers will win this game, and we don’t trust their ability to score points, either.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys11 – 2
Week 15 Matchup
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-7 (-115)
Moneyline
-302
Over/Under
Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Chances of First Round Playoff Bye
94%
Postseason Prospectus
Even with a tough loss against the division rival Giants last week, the Cowboys have no reason to fear for their playoff chances. However, going against one of most fired up defenses in the NFC this week when you can’t convert third downs on offense certainly doesn’t help.
Gambling Advice
All the chatter about a quarterback change is reactionary; if the receiver had caught the touchdown throw instead of dropping it last week against the Giants, the script would be flipped. However, the bid for a bounce-back game is hard to buy when it’s against the surging Buccaneers for the second Sunday Night Football game in a row. We’d stay away from putting money on the ‘Boys.
New York Giants9 – 2
Week 15 Matchup
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-4.5 (-115)
Moneyline
-196
Over/Under
Over 41.5 (-105), Under 41.5 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
75%
Postseason Prospectus
The Giants’ win over the Cowboys last week went a long way towards securing their Wild Card spot, and “wild card” is the best descriptor of this hot-and-cold team going forward.
Gambling Advice
We like the Giants’ defense to expose the fraudulent Lions in the cold weather of the Meadowlands, particularly considering Stafford’s bum finger should prompt some errant throws. Pound the under in this matchup.
Washington Redskins7 – 5 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins, 8:30 EST Monday, 12/19/16
Spread
-2 (-110)
Moneyline
-130
Over/Under
Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
46%
Postseason Prospectus
The Redskins are still very much in the hunt for the Wild Card, and having fewer than six losses (because of their tie) will definitely help their chances. However, it won’t matter if they don’t keep winning.
Gambling Advice
A Monday Night Football game against two unpredictable teams is one of the most difficult to gamble on, particularly when the forecast calls for snow. Without any immediately favorable odds, this might be a wait-and-see game.
Philadelphia Eagles5 – 8
Week 15 Matchup
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-227
Over/Under
Over/Under: Over 51 (-110), Under 51 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs:
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
There’s plenty of rebuilding to be done in Philadelphia this offseason, in the aftermath of Chip Kelly, and Philly’s postseason hopes for 2016/17 were dashed weeks ago.
Gambling Advice
The worst matchup for the Eagles is a team with a strong defense, and that’s exactly what we find in the Baltimore Ravens. We like the Eagles to score very few points in this game, and advise pounding the under.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks8 – 4 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks, 8:25 EST Thursday, 12/15/16
Spread
-15 (-110)
Moneyline
-833
Over/Under
Over 38.5 (-105), Under 38.5 (-115)
Chances of First Round Playoff Bye
58%
Postseason Prospectus
Despite a once-in-a-career kind of atrocious 6-turnover performance from the Seahawks offense last week in Lambeau Field, the Seahawks still have a good shot of getting a first-round playoff bye.
Gambling Advice
Seattle coming back in front of the home crowd and annihilating the Rams is one of the safest bets in recent memory, and the 8-to-1 moneyline odds reflect that. If it wasn’t a Thursday Night Football game, we would even recommend the over, thinking that the Seahawks could score more than 39 points by themselves, but the short week gives us pause.
Arizona Cardinals5 – 7 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-130
Over/Under
Over 50 (-105), Under 50 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
The more interesting question about the 2016/17 Cardinals isn’t when their season died, but when Carson Palmer’s career died.
Gambling Advice
The Cardinals keep hearing more and more bad news, with their already beleaguered passing attack further hampered by the arrest of a receiver. We don’t like the idea of laying money on the Cardinals, and don’t trust them at all.
Los Angeles Rams4 – 9
Week 15 Matchup
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks, 8:25 EST Thursday, 12/15/16
Spread
+15 (-110)
Moneyline
+580
Over/Under
Over 38.5 (-105), Under 38.5 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The Rams have been out of contention for weeks, but were finally mathematically eliminated after they lost big last week to the Falcons.
Gambling Advice
You always perk up when you see greater than 5-to-1 odds in a divisional game, and the Rams do generally play the Seahawks tough, but it’s a pipe dream to consider putting money on the Rams the week after they fire their head coach.
San Francisco 49ers1 – 12
Week 15 Matchup
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons, 4:05 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-11.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+775
Over/Under
Over/Under Over 51.5 (-110), Under 51.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The 49ers are proving yet again that Chip Kelly is an ineffective NFL head coach.
Gambling Advice
Like the Grinch, we wouldn’t touch the 49ers with a 39-and-a-half foot pole.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers8 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-3.5 (-105)
Moneyline
-159
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Winning the Division
82%
Postseason Prospectus
The Steelers dramatically improved their chances of winning the division by picking up a game on the Baltimore Ravens last week, and have the easier schedule down the stretch. It’s looking good for the Steelers to win the AFC North.
Gambling Advice
While the Steelers didn’t exactly put on a show against the Bills last week, they need the win, and they’re likely to pull it out against the division rival Bengals. With nearly even odds across the board, though, there’s no reason to put any money on this game.
Baltimore Ravens7 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-6 (-110)
Moneyline
-249
Over/Under
Over 41.5 (-110), Under 41.5 (-110)
Chances of Winning the Division
18%
Postseason Prospectus
The Ravens lost most of their playoff hopes with the loss against the Patriots last week on Monday Night Football. Despite having one of the top defenses and special teams in the league, the Ravens are likely to lose the division to the Steelers, and there isn’t likely to be a wild card team coming from the AFC North.
Gambling Advice
This game is the perfect recipe for an under: We have little confidence in the Ravens’ offense, and all the confidence in the world that their defense can shut down the floundering Eagles at home. Pound the under in this game for one of the best bets of the week.
Cincinnati Bengals5 – 7 – 1
Week 15 Matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+3.5 (-115)
Moneyline
-135
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
Sad Bengals fans not only lost their playoff hopes a few weeks ago, but also lost the ability to enjoy watching the games after A. J. Green went down.
Gambling Advice
There’s no reason to expect that Cincinnati will pull off an upset against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers; we don’t advise laying any money on the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns0 – 13
Week 15 Matchup
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+10 (-110)
Moneyline
+465
Over/Under
Over 43 (-105), Under 43 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The postseason dreams of the city of Cleveland rest securely in the hands of the Cavaliers at this point.
Gambling Advice
Stay away: Laying money on the Browns week after week in the hopes that they pull off that one win against a bad-to-mediocre opponent is a little like asking someone out over and over when it’s clear they’re not interested. At a certain point, you have to admit that you’ve struck out: Even if you did score that date – would it have been worth it?

AFC South

Houston Texans7 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-6 (-115)
Moneyline
-213
Over/Under
Over 39 (-110), Under 39 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
75%
Postseason Prospectus
The Texans were essentially playing for the division last week against the Colts, but it’s important to note that they didn’t win the division, the Colts lost it. The Texans have the edge over the Titans for the NFC South’s one playoff berth, but it’s not pretty.
Gambling Advice
The Texans do not inspire any confidence in this matchup, and the odds do not offer any value. Stay away.
Tennessee Titans7 – 6
Week 15 Matchup
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+5.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+181
Over/Under
Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
26%
Postseason Prospectus
The Texans were essentially playing for the division last week against the Colts, but it’s important to note that they didn’t win the division, the Colts lost it. The Texans have the edge over the Titans for the NFC South’s one playoff berth, but it’s not pretty.
Gambling Advice
The Texans do not inspire any confidence in this matchup, and the odds do not offer any value. Stay away.
Indianapolis Colts6 – 7
Week 15 Matchup
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+4 (-105)
Moneyline
+169
Over/Under
Over 44.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
4%
Postseason Prospectus
The Colts had everything in front of them on 4th and goal with the playoffs on the line against the Texans, and they botched it. At this point, they’re as good as out.
Gambling Advice
Very little value to be had with these lines, but the Colts moneyline is one of the only possible road upsets that have positive odds this week. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that these two teams – both third in the division – could yield an entertaining matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars2 – 11
Week 15 Matchup
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+6 (-105)
Moneyline
+177
Over/Under
Over 39 (-110), Under 39 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
There’s really nothing to say about the Jaguars.
Gambling Advice
The Texans are one of the most favorable matchups the Jaguars have for this entire season, but without even 2-to-1 odds it’s a rather risky proposition.

AFC East

New England Patriots11 – 2
Week 15 Matchup
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos, 4:25 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-3 (-110)
Moneyline
-180
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of First Round Playoff Bye
>99%
Postseason Prospectus
The Pats essentially locked up the first-round playoff bye with their statement win against the Ravens in front of the home fans last week, and are among the Super Bowl favorites.
Gambling Advice
If the Patriots offense can move the ball against the Ravens at home without Rob Gronkowski, there’s no reason to believe that they won’t be able to move the ball against the Broncos in Denver and control the time of possession. We like the Patriots against the spread in this matchup, and would also consider the under.
Miami Dolphins8 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, 8:25 EST Saturday, 12/17/16
Spread
-3 (+105)
Moneyline
-135
Over/Under
Over 38 (-110), Under 38 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
27%
Postseason Prospectus
The Dolphins earned back their chances at a Wild Card playoff spot last week with a win over the Cardinals, but will need to keep winning if they’re to have any chance at all.
Gambling Advice
By all rights the Dolphins should roll over the New York Jets, but prime time divisional games always have the potential to be fluky. Taking the over in this game is intriguing, when you’re expecting the unexpected.
Buffalo Bills6 – 7
Week 15 Matchup
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-10 (-110)
Moneyline
-625
Over/Under
Over 43 (-105), Under 43 (-115)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
2%
Postseason Prospectus
The Bills officially played themselves out of the wild card spot last week.
Gambling Advice
If the odds were at all favorable, we’d always consider betting against the Browns to be a sound investment. In this case, with 6-to-1 odds, there isn’t much value to be gained.
New York Jets4 – 9
Week 15 Matchup
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, 8:25 EST Saturday, 12/17/16
Spread
-3 (-125)
Moneyline
+115
Over/Under
Over 38 (-110), Under 38 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
0%
Postseason Prospectus
The only playoff hopes alive in the Meadowlands are the Giants’.
Gambling Advice
Based on their play, there’s no reason to support the Jets financially. There is the potential for this rare Saturday night game to have a fluky outcome; if the game turns sloppy, the over could be an intriguing value play.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs10 – 3
Week 15 Matchup
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-5.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-217
Over/Under
Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
Chances of Winning Division
83%
Postseason Prospectus
The Chiefs took care of business against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football, and look poised to make a run into the playoffs backed by incredible defensive and special teams production.
Gambling Advice
The Chiefs are surging, and playing some of the best football in the league. There’s reason to believe that they will keep rolling at home over the Titans, and we’d wager on the defense and special teams scoring some points in this matchup. Consider pushing the Chiefs against the spread.
Oakland Raiders10 – 3
Week 15 Matchup
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers, 4:25 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
-2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-132
Over/Under
Over 50 (-110), Under 50 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
>99%
Postseason Prospectus
Postseason Prospectus: After getting soundly beaten on Thursday Night Football against the division rival Chiefs despite good play in all three phases, the Raiders odds to win the division dropped precipitously, (down to 14%), though their record nearly guarantees a playoff berth.
Gambling Advice
We’re looking forward to the opportunity to bet against the Raiders in the playoffs, but the combination of warm weather, divisional familiarity, 10 days’ rest, the Charger’s offensive line, Khalil Mack, and the chip on their shoulder from the Chiefs game all combines together for a remarkably strong case to pound the Raiders against the spread.
Denver Broncos8 – 5
Week 15 Matchup
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos, 4:25 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+3 (-110)
Moneyline
+150
Over/Under
Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
52%
Postseason Prospectus
Postseason Prospectus:The Broncos officially lost the chance to win the division last week, and, unless their offense can get it together, their wild card chances are also tanking.
Gambling Advice
It’s not just that the Broncos have lost personnel and lost effectiveness on offense, they’ve also lost confidence. Look for the well-coached, veteran Patriot team to blow into town and take care of business, and stay away from the Broncos this week.
San Diego Chargers5 – 8
Week 15 Matchup
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers, 4:25 EST Sunday, 12/18/16
Spread
+2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-132
Over/Under
Over 50 (-110), Under 50 (-110)
Chances of Making the Playoffs
<1%
Postseason Prospectus
Postseason Prospectus:San Diego’s season has been about as inspired as their fan base: not very.
Gambling Advice
We like the Raiders to clean up in this game, and advise staying away from the Chargers.
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