NFL Sunday Game Breakdown: Week 17

The final week of the NFL regular season for 2016/17 has arrived! For 20 unfortunate franchises and 20 sad fan bases, New Year’s Day 2017 will be the last time they get to watch their team play a game for nine whole months. For the other 12 teams, the real season has yet to begin.

Week 17 marks one of the only times when the bottom-line NFL schedule-makers cut their owners a break: There is no Thursday Night Football, no Monday Night Football, and every team plays another team inside of their division, which generally minimizes travel time and expenses during the depths of winter.

Week 17 can also sometimes be the time when playoff spots are decided, and when the playoff picture finally becomes clear for certain teams. This season, however, many of these outcomes were decided last week. After having only 4 playoff teams locked in after Week 15, after Week 16 we now know for certain 10 of the ultimate 12 teams that will be fighting for a chance to compete in Super Bowl 51 in February.

In contrast to Week 16, in which only 3 games held no meaning for the playoff picture, of the 16 games happening on New Year’s Day, there are 10 games that are completely playoff irrelevant: In some cases, both teams are out of the playoffs and hang up the pads for the last time after the game; in the others, one or both teams have their playoff seed locked up and will be completely unaffected by the outcome of the game.

Of the 6 remaining games, four have playoff implications purely for seeding – no playoff spots will be won or lost based on the outcome of the game (Raiders @ Broncos, Chiefs @ Chargers, Seahawks @ 49ers, Saints @ Falcons). Finally, there are two games that have direct implications for playoff spots (Giants @ Redskins, Packers @ Lions).

To be more specific, there are three possible changes to the playoff picture that could occur in Week 17: The Seahawks and Falcons could trade the #2 overall seed in the NFC and the accompanying first-round bye; the Raiders and Broncos could trade the division title in the AFC West, and thus the #2 overall seed in the AFC and the first-round bye; and finally there are three teams fighting for two playoff spots between the Packers, Lions, and Redskins. The winner of Packers/Lions takes the NFC North title and either the #3 or #4 seed in the NFC, and either the loser or Washington gets the second Wild Card spot in the NFC and the #6 seed.

(We are honor-bound to note here that this isn’t entirely accurate – there is one more playoff scenario technically in play in Week 17. The Buccaneers are this year’s team that need a million things to go their way in the final week of the season in order to make the playoffs. But the odds are so infinitesimal that we decided not to include the scenario anywhere other than a footnote: For Tampa Bay to make the playoffs would take 7 different games falling their way – including the 49ers beating the Seahawks and a tie between the Giants and Redskins. To put it simply, the Bucs’ playoff chances are right around the odds of winning a 7-team teaser – much, much less than 1%.)

So while the most exciting matchups as it pertains to the playoffs may be confined to only the six games listed above, that’s not to say that there isn’t value to be found in the other matchups of Week 17 for interested parties.

In aggregate, we find that in betting on Week 17 games, the gambling public generally tends to put too much stock into the simple idea that “a team has nothing to play for.” More specifically, gamblers will often bet against teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs, believing that there is no way that a team could win a game, pull off an upset, or cover an unfavorable spread without any postseason motivation.

However, in our experience this is not always the case. While it’s possible that coaches may try to manipulate snap counts and personnel packages to preserve their biggest assets, we highly doubt that any NFL player ever walks onto the field intending to lose. For many teams and many individual matchups, the idea of playing the game you love one last time against a division rival with the understanding that the following day you get to sleep in for the first time in 4 months probably provides plenty of motivation to go out and hit somebody.

For this reason, we often find good value in underdog bets with the Week 17 lines inflated against non-playoff or recently eliminated teams. You’ll find these matchups and more below.

Below you’ll find each division, listed by standings, with their record, their matchup, the gambling odds of that matchup, playoff percentage, the playoff implications of the game, as well as our quick tips for where the team is trending and how you should bet.