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NFL Playoff Breakdown: Wild Card Weekend

By Paul Wilson in Sports
| January 5, 2017 12:00 am PDT
NFL Wild Card Games

The National Football League’s regular season for 2016/17 has concluded, and on New Year’s Day of 2017 the full playoff picture came into view. We now know that the following 12 teams will be competing for the right to call themselves world champions and winners of Super Bowl 51:

NFC

Dallas Cowboys (13–3)

Atlanta Falcons (11–5)

Seattle Seahawks (10–5–1)

Green Bay Packers (10–6)

New York Giants (11–5)

Detroit Lions (9–7)

AFC

New England Patriots (14–2)

Kansas City Chiefs (12–4)

Pittsburgh Steelers (11–5)

Houston Texans (9–7)

Oakland Raiders (12–4)

Miami Dolphins (12–6)

As the Cowboys, Falcons, Patriots, and Chiefs have all earned first-round byes, we are left with 8 teams set to face off on Wild Card Weekend – each of the bottom four teams listed above.

Holistically, one could argue that this is one of the worst groups of Wild Card playoff teams in recent memory. The reason for this is that the 2016/17 season was unique insofar as it featured two particularly strong divisions – the AFC West and the NFC East – both of which could have easily sent three teams to the playoffs, purely based on the strength of their play.

However, it is exceedingly rare for a single division to account for three playoff teams (a division leader and both Wild Card teams). In fact, it really only happens once every couple of decades. One of the primary reasons for this is that obviously each team plays all of its three division opponents twice, and when a single division contains multiple good teams, that makes it harder for the individual teams in that division to get up to the record necessary to make the playoffs.

In fact, if you place the Denver Broncos into the AFC South instead of the AFC West (switching them, say with the Houston Texans) and you place the Washington Redskins in the NFC West (switching them with the Arizona Cardinals), it’s likely that the Texans and Lions would not have made the playoffs at all; that the Broncos would have easily won the AFC South, and the Redskins would have taken the second Wild Card spot, flipping their three losses against the Giants and Cowboys into three wins against the 49ers and Rams.

So while the playoffs could have certainly been more exciting had the Redskins and Broncos made the playoffs instead of the Lions and Dolphins, unfortunately the way that the good teams were distributed throughout the league meant that this was impossible, and we instead need to suffer through a game featuring an abysmal NFC South team instead of enjoying an additional fun AFC West or NFC East team.

The other reason that this year’s Wild Card Weekend is slated to be less entertaining than usual is because of the rash of quarterback injuries that have cropped up recently. Between the four AFC teams playing in this first round of the playoffs, there have been five starting quarterbacks either benched or injured over the last month alone (Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Matt McGloin).

Combine these injuries to the Texans, Dolphins, and Raiders with the recent stretch of uninspiring play from the Steelers, Lions, and Seahawks, and we are left with only two Wild Card teams that are rolling into the playoffs on a hot streak, looking as though they could compete for a championship: The Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants.

Unfortunately, with how the seeding worked out, these two teams are playing each other Sunday afternoon, meaning that only one of them will continue forward to the next round.

But while football fans may be unenthusiastic about some of the games that will be played this weekend (and with good reason), that doesn’t mean that this Wild Card Weekend doesn’t hold good value for interested parties.

In general, there are a few common sense gambling tips to follow during the playoffs.

Firstly, the postseason differs from the regular season in a few key ways that combine together to give home teams a stronger home field advantage. The “win or go home” mentality, the fact that the games are all nationally televised, the increased meaningfulness to the fan base, generally heightened nerves for the players, as well as the fact that there are likely to be more home fans who are more invested in the game all make home field advantage a little bit stronger than usual.

However, that’s not to say that it’s necessarily more likely that the Wild Card home teams win: last season, for the 2015/16 Wild Card Weekend, all four road teams ended up winning. So home field advantage by no means guarantees a victory, but it does definitely swing the odds a few points in favor of the home team.

The only other piece of global advice to include about Wild Card Weekend is that despite what you may think, there is no real difference between the regular season and the postseason in terms of scoring. Even in outdoor cold weather games, the average amount of points scored does not change in the regular season vs. the postseason.

Now, it’s important to note that we’re talking about comparing the regular season to the postseason for individual teams (i.e. the amount of points a team scores and allows in the regular season should remain consistent in the postseason). However, due to the fact that the playoffs often feature the teams with the best defenses, it’s possible that there could be more low-scoring games and fewer points scored overall.

With these global caveats in mind about how to gamble on postseason NFL games, let’s take a closer look.

We’ve got you covered with a full preview of every playoff team.

Below you’ll find each playoff team listed by seed, with their record, their matchup, the gambling odds of that matchup, odds of moving on, odds of winning the Super Bowl, as well as our quick tips for where the team is trending and how you should bet.

PLEASE NOTE

“Chances of Making Divisional Round” as well as “Chances of Winning Super Bowl” are taken from fivethirtyeight.com, and are based on a prospectus that aggregates 100,000 simulations of how the postseason will play out. This prospectus is updated after every game.

Gambling odds are taken from the sportsbook at Bovada.

Preview:

  • Over in Giants/Packers (43, -115)
  • Lions ATS (+8, -115)
  • Dolphins ATS (+10, -110)
  • Under in Steelers/Dolphins (47, -110)
  • Dolphins ATS (+10, -115)
  • Giants ATS (+4.5, -110)
  • Raiders ATS (+4, -110)
  • Lions moneyline (+300)
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NFC

#1 Seed:Dallas Cowboys13 – 3
Wild Card Matchup
BYE
Spread
N/A
Moneyline
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
Chances of Making Divisional Round
100%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
14%
Postseason Prospectus
Despite leading the league in wins for much of the year, the Cowboys did not end up with the most wins at the end of the regular season, their 13 finishing second behind the Patriots’ 14. The strange decision to play backup quarterback Tony Romo for only one short series in their Week 17 loss to the Eagles almost ensured that the Cowboys would bungle the game away due to third-stringer and butt-fumbler Mark Sanchez’s well-documented incompetence. Nonetheless, the Cowboys did secure a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and are one of the hottest teams in the NFL going into the postseason.
Gambling Advice
While of course the Cowboys do not play again until the Divisional Round, if you are interested in placing a wager on the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl (+450 at the Bovada sportsbook) or to win the NFC (+150 at the Bovada sportsbook), this week may be the best time to do so. The Cowboys sustained some injuries (such as to left tackle Tyron Smith) that currently hurt their stock a little bit, and now face a full two weeks without a game in order to get healthy. If you believe, like we do, that the Seattle Seahawks are going to beat the Detroit Lions, then this means that the Cowboys will play the winner of the Giants/Packers game in the second round of the playoffs. Given that the Giants are a division opponent and the Cowboys have already beaten the Packers this season, there’s a chance that the Cowboys’ odds could go down after this weekend even without playing a game. If you’re going to buy stock in Dallas, perhaps consider doing it now.
#2 Seed: Atlanta Falcons11 – 5
Wild Card Matchup
BYE
Spread
N/A
Moneyline
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
Chances of Making Divisional Round
100%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
14%
Postseason Prospectus
The Atlanta Falcons neatly took the 2nd overall seed with a win over the Saints in Week 17, clinching home field advantage and a first-round bye. However, we find it strange that the Falcons’ chances to win the Super Bowl (assigned by the statisticians at fivethirtyeight.com) are even with the Cowboys’. While both teams are in the top five on offense in essentially every meaningful category, the Cowboys follow that up with an average mark of 19.1 points allowed per game, good for 5th best in the NFL. On the other side, the Falcons allowed 25.4 points per game during the regular season, good for 5th worst in the NFL.
Gambling Advice
Perhaps this disparity in the defenses is the reason why the Falcons are favored much less by gamblers, despite being given even chances by statisticians. The Falcons are getting 8-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl (compared to the Cowboys at +450) and are 3-to-1 to win the NFC (compared to the Cowboys at +150; odds taken from the Bovada sportsbook). While of course the Falcons do not play a game this weekend, we would avoid snatching up any future bets for Atlanta. While it’s true that this is only Dan Quinn’s second year as the Falcons’ head coach, and it’s possible that he has changed the culture towards a more hard-edged playoff team, we still don’t trust Matty Ice in the playoffs, after an 8-year career involving only a single playoff victory.
#3 Seed: Seattle Seahawks10 – 5 – 1
Wild Card Matchup
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 EST Saturday, 1/7/17
Spread
-8 (-105)
Moneyline
-360
Over/Under
Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
71%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
5%
Postseason Prospectus
The Seahawks had the #2 seed and a first-round bye well within their grasp during the final weeks of the regular season, but failed to capitalize in rather catastrophic fashion. Not only were the Seahawks unable to string together two wins in a row for 7 straight games, but they also gave up their vaunted home win streak in a very winnable game against the division rival Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks enter into the postseason with long-standing offensive line woes, serious lack of depth at tailback, a dearth of defensive leadership in the absence of safety Earl Thomas, and so many injuries that cornerback Richard Sherman is returning punts.
Gambling Advice
We wouldn’t wager any money on the Seattle Seahawks, even at home. While Seattle may very well end up advancing to the Divisional Round, we think it more likely to be because the Lions lost the game than because the Seahawks won it. The thing we’re most worried about isn’t the lack of personnel but rather the fracturing of the team identity that was on display in San Francisco last week. After months of rumors circulating that the defensive personnel had begun turning on the offense and started the poisonous process of pointing fingers and laying blame, to witness two defensive teammates getting into a physical altercation on the sideline during a game in which 23 points were given up to the woeful San Francisco 49ers is enough cause for concern to avoid gambling on the Seahawks altogether.
#4 Seed: Green Bay Packers10 – 6
Wild Card Matchup
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers, 4:40 EST Sunday, 1/8/17
Spread
-4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-280
Over/Under
Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
66%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
5%
Postseason Prospectus
The Green Bay Packers are one of the only two teams entering the Wild Card round hot as a pistol, and they happen to be playing the other one on Sunday. Several of the teams on byes are playing incredible football, but a week off can do a lot to hurt the momentum of a team, and the Packers are bursting at the seams with momentum right now. After flipping a historically bad 4-game losing streak directly into a 6-game win streak that culminated in three divisional victories and ultimately the NFC North division crown, the Packers are surging right now off of the phenomenal play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whose numbers over the last 6 games are other-worldly. The Packers do have some serious personnel issues in their secondary, but other than that the team is rock solid and believes in themselves. No one wants to play the Green Bay Packers in the postseason.
Gambling Advice
We feel relatively confident that this game at Lambeau Field is currently too close to call, and in all likelihood will come down to the final drive. And if Aaron Rodgers is the one holding the ball in that final drive, then the game will come down to the defining features of these two teams: Aaron Rodgers’ ability to score touchdowns in crunch time, with the game on the line, vs. the New York Giant defense’s ability to hold on to a small lead and close out games with their expensive pass rush. We believe that Aaron Rodgers ultimately wins that battle, but it could be to the tune of less than 4.5 points. So while we wouldn’t necessarily trust either team to win by more than a field goal, by any means, we do believe that both offenses will be able to move the ball and score points – the Packers, because of Aaron Rodgers; the Giants, because of both the Eli Manning-Odell Beckham Jr. connection as well the fact that the Packers are seriously hurting at the cornerback position. We advise pounding the over in this matchup and getting ready for an absolute thriller.
#5 Seed: New York Giants11 – 5
Wild Card Matchup
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers, 4:40 EST Sunday, 1/8/17
Spread
+4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+230
Over/Under
Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
34%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
2%
Postseason Prospectus
The New York Giants went a long way towards regaining their momentum in Week 17. After laying an egg on Thursday Night Football against the divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, the Giants came surging back (as we predicted) to beat the Redskins despite being heavy underdogs. People didn’t believe that the Giants had anything to play for, but we correctly identified that the Giants were playing for their postseason momentum, and they earned it with a very stout and very impressive defensive performance. While they may not have a ton of weapons on offense besides OBJ and while Jekyll-and-Hyde Eli Manning may not inspire a ton of confidence (despite having two Super Bowl rings), the recent play of the Giants’ defense is their strongest asset headed into the postseason.
Gambling Advice
It’s true that Eli Manning has a 2–0 playoff record in Lambeau field, so the fact that this game is outdoors, cold, and in front of a hostile crowd shouldn’t do anything to deter Eli. Both of these teams are surging and both have momentum, so there’s no reason to believe that either team should blow out the other. As we mention immediately above, we believe that the Packers’ offense will be too good for the Giants’ strong defense, and the Giants’ offense will not be good enough for the Packers’ scrappy defense, ultimately giving the Packers the win. There’s potentially value in betting the Giants against the spread, banking on the fact that the game will likely be decided by a field goal or less, but it’s never appetizing to lay money for even odds on an outcome that has a 4-point window. One thing’s for certain, though: with Aaron Rodgers good for three touchdowns, Eli Manning good for at least two, and the game likely to end up being a fourth quarter shootout, the over is a safe bet in this matchup.
#6 Seed: Detroit Lions9 – 7
Wild Card Matchup
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 EST Saturday, 1/7/17
Spread
+8 (-115)
Moneyline
+300
Over/Under
Over/Under: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
29%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
1%
Postseason Prospectus
The Detroit Lions have revealed themselves in recent weeks to be a thirty-minute football team, blowing half-time leads each of the last two weeks against both the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers. After the opposing defense makes their half-time adjustments, the Lions’ offense is exposed to be one-dimensional offense, based on a rookie running back and a couple of rookie offensive linemen, and Detroit is unable to score points in the second half except in garbage time. If the Lions do end up pulling out an underdog win against the Seahawks during Wild Card Weekend, we would expect them to get absolutely crushed against the Cowboys in Round 2.
Gambling Advice
Above, in giving our gambling advice for the Seahawks, we mentioned that if Seattle ends up on top it will likely be because the Seahawks lost the game, not because the Lions won it. We believe this same thing to be true in reverse: If Detroit ends up moving on to the second round, it will likely be because the Seahawks gave away the game, not because the Lions took it from them. However, the city of Detroit is certainly rallying behind this team, and there seems to be a lot more unity in the Detroit locker room than in the Seattle locker room. We think it likely that the Lions will cover the spread, and we find intriguing value in getting 3-to-1 odds to bet on a Seattle implosion. While it’s very far from a sure thing, consider laying money on the Detroit Lions to keep this game close in Seattle.

AFC

#1 Seed: New England Patriots14 – 2
Wild Card Matchup
BYE
Spread
N/A
Moneyline
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
Chances of Making Divisional Round
100%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
35%
Postseason Prospectus
The Patriots have pulled out yet another vintage Tom Brady-era season: Despite the absence of their star quarterback for the first four games of the season, stellar coaching brought them to a 3–1 record upon his return, and Tom did the rest, going 11–1 over twelve games and putting up numbers that forced his name into the MVP conversation. While we don’t believe Brady is the MVP, we do agree that the Patriots should absolutely be the Super Bowl favorite, and both their chances (35%) and their gambling odds (+180) are the best of all the playoff teams. It’s hard to believe that New England is able to pull out this type of season year after year, but with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at the helm, perhaps it’s not surprising at all.
Gambling Advice
Of course the Patriots are not playing in the Wild Card round, with a first round bye secured and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but similar to the Cowboys if you are interested in putting any money on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl or to win the AFC (-190 at the Bovada sportsbook), there’s a good chance that the odds will never be better than they are now. Consider all of the current potential starting quarterbacks that Brady could face in Round 2: Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Matt McGloin, Connor Cook, Matt Moore, or Ryan Tannehill. As soon as that matchup is set, there’s little doubt that the gambling public will pound the Patriots and the value will go way down. However, considering the fact that their AFC odds are well below even already, perhaps it’s simply a stay-away.
#2 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs12 – 4
Wild Card Matchup
BYE
Spread
N/A
Moneyline
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
Chances of Making Divisional Round
100%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
16%
Postseason Prospectus
The Chiefs were the big winner in Week 17, (not counting the Lions and the Packers who both clinched playoff spots). With their win over the Chargers and the Raiders’ loss against the Broncos, the Chiefs clinched the second seed and a first-round bye. Given Andy Reid’s record playing after a bye week, Kansas City fans have to feel good about their chances to come out in the Divisional Round and put their best foot forward against either the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Houston Texans, or the Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs are currently the winningest regular season team in the entire league over the last two seasons – even better than the Patriots – and they are hoping to keep that momentum going into the postseason.
Gambling Advice
Obviously the Chiefs are not playing a game in the Wild Card Round, but there is certainly value in their future odds, if you believe in the Chiefs. Their Super Bowl odds currently sit at 9-to-1, worse than the Falcons, Steelers, Packers, Cowboys, and Patriots, and their AFC Championship odds are at +425 at the Bovada sportsbook. While it’s true that the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith does very little to inspire confidence, it’s nonetheless true that the Chiefs are built to win close, defensive football games, and that Tyreke Hill has the potential to sway any game. While we’re personally not investing in the Chiefs, having too little confidence in their ability to go toe-to-toe with a potent offense like the New England Patriots, we nonetheless must recognize that there is probably the best value of all the playoff teams in betting the Kansas City Chiefs.
#3 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers11 – 5
Wild Card Matchup
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:05 EST Sunday, 1/8/17
Spread
-10 (-110)
Moneyline
-360
Over/Under
Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
73%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
5%
Postseason Prospectus
For as much playoff experience as Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin have, the Steelers nevertheless enter the playoffs with very little momentum. It’s surprising to note that they have won 7 straight games, considering how ugly some of their wins have been. It’s easier to remember the Steelers being down by multiple scores against the Bengals and most recently taking the Browns into overtime on their home turf in Week 17. After questions about Mike Tomlin’s coaching ability and after the loss of momentum from most of the starters sitting out in Week 17, Pittsburgh fans should rightfully have a few reservations about their ability to make a run deep into the playoffs.
Gambling Advice
We’re not quite sure why the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 10 points; we’re not sure they should be favored by 10 points against anybody. While we do think that the more experienced quarterback and the home team will undoubtedly come away with a win in this game, we find it very unlikely that the Steelers will win by more than 10. We also wouldn’t be so certain that the total score will end up going above 47 points, given that both of these teams have strong rushing attacks. In summary, while we do think that the Steelers will end up winning this game and taking on the Chiefs in Kansas City next week, we wouldn’t advise laying any money on Pittsburgh.
#4 Seed: Houston Texans9 – 7
Wild Card Matchup
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans, 4:35 EST Saturday, 1/7/17
Spread
-3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
-147
Over/Under
Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
66%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
1%
Postseason Prospectus
The Texans limped into the playoffs as the ugly duckling, unwanted child that no one wants to think about and no one wants to watch in the playoffs. Despite a historically bad season from quarterback Brock Osweiler, the Texans have no choice but to return to their 72-million-dollar quarterback despite benching him in Week 15 in favor of backup Tom Savage, as Savage is currently in the concussion protocol. It’s unfortunate for the league that the divisions are organized in such a way that the Texans were able to make the playoffs at all, and it’s unfortunate for football fans that they will have to watch Brock Osweiler play Connor Cook for the first playoff game in 2016/17.
Gambling Advice
We would stay as far away from the Houston Texans as humanly possible. Particularly when there is no value in the Houston lines, we have absolutely no confidence in the ability of Brock Osweiler – who has never taken a postseason snap – to lead his team to victory. While it could certainly happen, anything could happen in this terrible matchup. Also, we firmly believe that the storyline currently being perpetrated by the media that this is an opportunity for Brock Osweiler to redeem himself is absolute garbage – if Osweiler was going to play well, he would have done it during his 14 starts during the regular season, not when everything is on the line and the pressure is high in the playoffs. The Texans’ stadium and frustrated fan base offer less of a home field advantage than any other playoff team, and we would absolutely avoid betting on Houston.
#5 Seed: Oakland Raiders12 – 4
Wild Card Matchup
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans, 4:35 EST Saturday, 1/7/17
Spread
+3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
+133
Over/Under
Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
54%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
2%
Postseason Prospectus
The Oakland Raiders put out one of the most exciting franchise renaissances in recent memory in 2016/17, based squarely on the shoulders of impressive third-year QB Derek Carr. However, when Carr went down for the rest of the season with a broken leg, so too did the Raiders’ postseason hopes and dreams. While their young defense has certainly played hungry and shown heart, the fact that the Raiders give up a lot of points on defense and are among the most penalized teams in the league paints the picture of a young team that needs a few years to learn how to win, not a veteran team that will be able to make a run deep into the playoffs. If the Raiders are able to pull off a road win against the Texans in the Wild Card round (and of course anything can happen in the playoffs, particularly with two bad quarterbacks), we think it very likely that they lose in Round 2.
Gambling Advice
We would potentially consider the value of a bet against the spread, simply to bank on the idea of this game being close, but beyond that we find way too much uncertainty in this matchup to merit putting any money on the Raiders. The statisticians at fivethirtyeight.com have only found that the home team gets a 4% increase in the likelihood that they will win the game, and we think this is accurate. Even if Matt McGloin is able to play after sustaining a shoulder injury last week, we still don’t trust Oakland to take care of business and beat the Texans on the road, and believe the game is truly a toss-up, to be determined by turnovers and defensive plays. Stay away from putting any money on the Raiders, except for perhaps a bet on the game being close with an ATS underdog play.
#6 Seed: Miami Dolphins10 – 6
Wild Card Matchup
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:05 EST Sunday, 1/8/17
Spread
+10 (-110)
Moneyline
+290
Over/Under
Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
Chances of Making Divisional Round
27%
Chances of Winning the Superbowl
1%
Postseason Prospectus
The Dolphins were dealt probably the most crushing blow of any playoff team going into Wild Card Weekend. After clinching their playoff spot in Week 16 with no chance to lose their spot or alter their seeding, Miami went into a meaningless game against the Patriots and got absolutely walloped, ending up losing the game by 21 points. After losing Ryan Tannehill four weeks ago, the Dolphins have been struggling to keep any sort of momentum going into the playoffs, and that certainly wasn’t helped by Tom Brady and the Patriots laying the smack-down.
Gambling Advice
The only reason we find any value at all in betting on the Miami Dolphins is because we believe that the line is too high. We don’t feel that the Pittsburgh Steelers have it together enough yet to win the game by 10 points, and we believe that the game will be low-scoring enough that neither team comes out with a dominant victory. If Miami didn’t have the pass rush that they do, we would potentially worry that Pittsburgh could stack scores, but given that the Dolphins are often able to get after the quarterback, we find it more likely that Ben Roethlisberger will have some drives stall and the Dolphins find some seams in the run game. While we don’t think that the Miami Dolphins have any chance to make it to the second round of the playoffs, we do believe that they will keep this game within 10 points. Consider laying money on Miami against the spread.

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