NFL Player Prop Bets for J.J. Watt in 2021

I’m not here to talk about how the Texans botched the whole deal with J.J. Watt. I’m here to bring you the odds and deliver insight regarding a four-pack of J.J. Watt props bets for the 2021 NFL season.

The three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year appears rejuvenated for his final chapter with the Cardinals, and the fan base in Arizona is thrilled to have him on board. Before we dive into the available wagers, let’s take a look at how Vance Joseph plans on implementing J.J. into his base 3-4 defense.

The arrival of Watt means the Cardinals are likely to wave goodbye to Haason Reddick in free agency, but that’s ok. This is a defense that recorded the fifth-most QB pressures of any team in football, and that was with Chandler Jones sidelined for 11 games.

J.J. plugs in at right defensive end, but that’ll be interchanged based on how often Joseph utilizes unique sub-packages. For example, The Cardinals employed a 0-6-5 formation last season at times, as well as a 1-5-5 formation. Instead of always digging out of a three-point stance, Watt can slide back and play a hybrid role of sorts.

The main factor is J.J. won’t be constantly double-teamed like he was during his days in Houston. The impending return of Chandler Jones won’t afford opposing offenses that luxury.

Now let’s dive into the J.J. Watt props.

Keep in mind that BetUS has a disclaimer attached that Watt must play in a minimum of 12 games for action to be official.

Arizona accumulated 48 sacks in 2020, the 4^th-most in the NFL. The Cardinals blitzed on 39.4% of their plays (4^th-most in the NFL) and ranked 10^th in the league in hurry %. In a nutshell, this is an aggressive defense that takes pride in getting after the quarterback.

Adding Watt to the fray only adds fuel to the fire.

There’s something to be said for how embarrassing the Texans were in 2020, but there’s also something to be said for J.J.’s waning sack numbers. Despite suiting up in all 16 games and leading the team in defensive snaps, Watt registered five or fewer sacks for the second straight year.

Expecting Watt to eclipse 7.5 sacks in 2021 isn’t being overly ambitious, but don’t kid yourself into thinking it’s a sure thing either.

J.J. is most definitely in line to be a full-time player in Arizona, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see this organization be cautious with their approach. They inked Watt to a two-year deal worth $28 million, with $23 million of that being guaranteed upfront. The Pewaukee, WI native turns 32 this month and has a lot of mileage on his tank, so gradually transitioning Watt into a more pass-rush heavy role could very well be in the “cards.”

Also worth noting is that of the five Cardinals who tallied more than 58 tackles in 2020, none were defensive linemen. In fact, no defensive lineman on the Cards notched more than 35 tackles this past year. The way their defense is schemed, everything is funneled to the middle level.

Hence, safety Budda Baker and linebacker Jordan Hicks led the way with 118 tackles apiece.

Considering Watt logged over 1,000 snaps in 2020 and amassed just 52 tackles, backing the “under” seems like the sensible thing to do.

The Cardinals 15 forced fumbles were tied for the 7^th-most in the league last season. Haason Reddick was responsible for six of those and Jordan Phillips forced two, while no other member of Vance Joseph’s D forced more than one fumble.

As far as how many guys in the NFL were able to rack up at least four forced fumbles in 2020, that number comes out to 14. However, 8 of those 14 were either linebackers or defensive backs.

Watt has forced 25 fumbles in 10 seasons (2.5 forced fumbles per year) and has only surpassed three FFs once since 2014. I’m not in love with laying -230, but the reality is that J.J. most likely falls short of this total.

He certainly believes he can or he probably wouldn’t have agreed to come on board. Whether or not AZ has enough tools in the shed to keep pace with a team like the Buccaneers – that remains to be seen.

It’s important to point out that this price tag, which matches BetUS’s Super Bowl 56 odds for the Cardinals, is the best number available among the top US betting sites if you want to back Arizona to win the whole thing.

Rather than string you along and tell you I think this is a smart bet, I’d rather recommend you allocate any leftover funds to the other J.J. Watt prop bets. This particular wager has a lot more to do with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury than it does with the future Hall of Fame DE.

Reuniting with his brothers in Pittsburgh looked like the ideal landing spot. Green Bay is in desperate need of a pass rusher, and Watt is born and bred in a Wisconsin town just 125 miles south of Lambeau Field.

So why did J.J. opt to head west toward the desert? In his introductory Zoom news conference on March 2^nd, Watt offered some insight.

Getting back to the season-long props tied to Watt’s performance, I’d go under on the tackles and under on the forced fumbles but would lean toward the over on the sack total. Especially after uncovering that there’s a $1M in incentives waiting if J.J. records 10 sacks in the upcoming year.