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NFL Betting Guide for Week 5 – Top Trends, Best Games, and More

| October 6, 2021 11:38 am PDT

For the first few weeks, we’ve been bringing our weekly betting content in a series of articles. From this point on, we will combine our topics into one individual blog.

We will discuss the game of the week to bet on, betting trends, top matchups to exploit, and line movement.

With that in mind, let’s begin with our betting guide for Week 5.

Top Game to Bet on in Week 5

The game of the week features a battle between a pair of MVP-caliber quarterbacks.

Let’s discuss the AFC Championship Game rematch.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Buffalo Bills (+2.5) -105
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) -115
  • Buffalo Bills to Win (+135)
  • Kansas City Chiefs to Win (-155)
  • Over 56.5 (-110)
  • Under 56.5 (-110)

It’ll be a rematch of the 2021 AFC Championship Game when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City won that game to advance to their second straight Super Bowl.

Early in the 2021 season, it looks like Buffalo may be the better team.

Following a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bills have rattled off three straight wins. In those three games, they have outscored their opponents 118-21. The elite offense we saw last year is back, and they have a shutdown defense.

The Chiefs haven’t been their usual self this season, but I wouldn’t take too much stock in that. Their two losses have come at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.

Kansas City’s offense is still one of the best in the league, but can their defense fix things?

Let’s check out where they stand through four games.

  • Yards Per Game: 437.8 (31st)
  • Passing Yards Per Game: 291.8 (27th)
  • Rushing Yards Per Game: 146.0 (29th)
  • Points Per Game: 31.3 (31st)

We know Kansas City has an amazing offense but how long can they get away with this terrible defense? They were basically the reason they lost to the Chargers. Will the defense cost the Chiefs again this week?

On the other side, I want to see how the Bills defense holds up against the Chiefs offense.

They’ve allowed the fewest yards and points this season. However, only one of their opponents ranks outside the bottom five in points per game. Has the defense been a product of an easy schedule or are they just that good?

With that in mind, betting the over on the point total looks very enticing. Both teams know they need to score and score to win this game.

I think we’ll see a high-scoring affair on Sunday night in Kansas City.

Top NFL Matchups to Exploit in Week 5

Finding a few advantageous matchups can make the difference in fantasy football, DFS, and betting on the game. Which position groups are we focusing on in Week 5?

Let’s take a look.

Cleveland Browns Run Game vs. Los Angeles Chargers Run Defense

We’ve seen a few teams start well and separate themselves as true Super Bowl contenders. Among those are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Rams. However, I feel like everyone is forgetting about the Cleveland Browns.

Had it not been for a late special teams miscue, the Browns could be 4-0 with wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings. Still, they sit 3-1 and look like a contender.

A big reason for their success is their run game.

When head coach Kevin Stefanski took over last season, the Browns became a run-first team. They finished the 2020 season third in rushing yards.

This season, they’ve picked up right where they left off. They lead the NFL with 708 rushing yards.

What makes the Browns run game so dangerous is they have a pair of great running backs that run behind a top-five offensive line.

Here is how Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have performed this season.

Nick Chubb Kareem Hunt
Carries 69 43
Yards 362 234
Yards Per Carry 5.2 5.4
Touchdowns 3 3

On the other side, you have the Los Angeles Chargers run defense.

It’s interesting because the Chargers overall and pass defense rank top 10, while their points allowed ranks top five. However, they’ve allowed the fourth-most rushing yards.

Los Angeles did slow the Las Vegas Raiders running game, but that’s the only time they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. They have yet to face a rushing attack like Cleveland’s.

This matchup works out perfectly for the Browns. They want to run the ball and they face a bad run defense. Considering they have a pair of strong running backs, they don’t have to worry about overworking one.

I expect a low-scoring affair in Los Angeles. That’s why I’m fading Odell Beckham Jr. and Jared Cook in fantasy football.

Minnesota Vikings Run Game vs. Detroit Lions Run Defense

We just talked about an elite rushing attack. Why not discuss another?

The Minnesota Vikings are another team that loves to run the ball. They implemented this offense when Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator. Of course, we know Stefanski took the scheme with him to the Cleveland Browns. However, Minnesota hasn’t abandoned its identity.

Last season, the Vikings had the fifth-most rushing yards. Dalvin Cook finished second in the league with 1,557 rushing yards.

This season, we’ve seen the Vikings take a slight step back in their run game. Even so, this is still a run-first team.

Cook missed Week 3 with an ankle injury and missed some time in the Vikings Week 4 loss. He rushed for a combined 192 yards in the first two weeks.

While not on the same level as Cleveland, Minnesota has a quality combination with Cook and Alexander Mattison.

When Cook missed Week 3, Mattison put up these numbers.

  • 26 carries
  • 112 rushing yards

Now, let’s talk about the Detroit Lions run defense. Last season, they allowed the fifth-most yards per game. Their rank has improved but they are only allowing two fewer yards per game. That’s not ideal with the Vikings rushing attack coming to town.

The stats are a bit misleading because the Baltimore Ravens running backs only rushed for 58 yards. However, that doesn’t account for Lamar Jackson and his 58 yards.

Sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell rushed for 100 yards in Week 1, while David Montgomery and Damien Williams combined for over 150 yards last week.

Cook is dealing with a lingering ankle injury, but I have faith in Mattison.

Early in the week, Minnesota opened as (-8.0) favorites. Because of that, I think we’ll see the Vikings ground and pound their way to a victory.

NFL Betting Trends in Week 5

For bettors that are going back-and-forth between which side to pick, the betting trends can help you out.

Looking forward to Week 5, here are some betting trends that stood out.

New Orleans Saints (-2)

I’m not sure what to make of the New Orleans Saints. They had the massive Week 1 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Since then, we’ve seen mixed results with a win over the New England Patriots and a loss to the New York Giants.

Their passing offense ranks bottom five, but their rushing attack ranks top 10. Their pass defense ranks bottom ten, while their run defense ranks second.

Does this team confuse anyone else?

Following an overtime loss to the Giants, the Saints will stay in the NFC East as they take on the Washington Football Team. Washington’s defense remains terrible, but their offense carried them to a 34-30 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

So, in a matchup between two below-average teams, you would think bettors would be split. However, that’s far from the case.

  • New Orleans Saints (-2.0): 92 percent
  • Washington Football Team (+2.0): 8 percent

If we’re being honest, Washington is another hard team to solve.

They came into this season with a top-five defense. Their run defense is mid-pack but they rank bottom five in every other category. They didn’t enter the season with any major injuries, so I don’t know why they’ve had so much difficulty.

New Orleans’ offense has had issues of their own since Week 1, but I’m sure bettors know that the Washington defense makes anyone look good.

We saw the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons each score over 28 points. Imagine what the Saints can do if they lean on Alvin Kamara.

If you want to check out other bets, 83 percent of people are favoring the Saints on the moneyline. Then, we have 93 percent of people on this game going over the projected point total of 44.5.

This matchup will come down to the Saints Offense vs. Washington’s defense. Whichever unit steps up will probably win.

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Under 39.5 Points (-110)

I’ve been looking at the sportsbooks every week and I believe this is the first time all season I’ve seen a game with a point total under 40 points.

When you think about it, it’s not hard to realize why it’s so low.

Denver Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in their Week 4 loss. Drew Lock came in and went 12/21 with 113 yards and an interception.

There’s no guarantee Bridgewater misses this game, but Lock looks to be the likely starter.

Ben Roethlisberger has a hip injury, but I don’t think it’s bad enough to hold him out of the lineup. Even so, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been terrible this season.

Their 16.8 points per game is the fifth-fewest in the league. Denver isn’t far ahead with 20.8.

With a pair of subpar offenses, it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see bettors hammering the under.

  • Over 39.5 points: 0 percent
  • Under 39.5 points: 100 percent

Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t as dominant as we thought they’d be, but they also haven’t fallen off a cliff like the Washington Football Team. They rank in the 10-15 range for most categories.

For the Broncos, we wondered if their strong defense was legit. They killed it in the first three weeks, but their opponents were the two New York teams as well as the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Honestly, I’d say they failed to impress at home against the Baltimore Ravens.

Lamar Jackson had over 300 passing yards and the Ravens as a team rushed for over 100 yards. Denver did hold them to one touchdown in three red zone appearances.

Usually, I’d say no way to betting the under when it’s under 40 points. However, both these offenses are struggling and the defenses are pretty solid.

I think bettors have the right idea and we could see a 17-13 type game. For what it’s worth, Denver is a popular upset pick.

NFL Line Movement in Week 5

Line movement is always important for bettors to note.

We’ve seen a few times this season where a team opens as the underdog then becomes the favorite. The point total also tends to move by 2-3 points.

Let’s check out the biggest line movement for Week 5.

Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Point Spread

This is a matchup between two teams that have gone in opposite directions from their preseason projection.

The Chicago Bears came into this season as a fringe playoff team, but they are off to a 1-3 start.

Both Andy Dalton and Justin Fields have had their struggles, as the Bears offense is last in yards per game. Their 16.0 points per game is the third-fewest.

On Monday night, the Las Vegas Raiders lost their first game of the season. Still, their 3-1 start has them in playoff contention.

When the game opened on Sunday night, the Raiders were a (-4.0) point favorite. An hour later, the line moved in favor of the Raiders, as they became (-4.5) point favorites.

Bettors weren’t set on one side. At times, we’d see 70 percent of people on the Raiders. A few hours later, it’d shift to 60 percent on the Bears. Despite the Raiders having yet to play their Week 4 game, the sportsbooks felt another movement was necessary.

Monday at 6:07 p.m., the Raiders became (-5.5) point favorites. That’s where the line currently stands, but bettors remain unsure.

  • Monday at 6:07 p.m.: 56 percent on Bears
  • Tuesday at 11:07 p.m.: 60 percent on Raiders
  • Wednesday at 7:37 a.m.: 58 percent on Raiders

Chicago continues to remain quiet on their starting quarterback for Week 5. They also lost running back David Montgomery to a knee injury. I’m sure both of those factored into the movement.

A lot of time, we see line movement that has little effect on bettors. With every movement on this matchup, we’ve seen bettors flip from one side to another.

The Bears offense looked better last week, but their defense struggled against the Detroit Lions. They’ll need a better effort if they want to cover the (+5.5) point spread.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Point Total

Here, we have another matchup of teams going in different directions.

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off back-to-back losses, but there could be a big change this week.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has a calf injury that could hold him out this week. That means rookie Trey Lance would make his first career start. However, he’ll have his hands full with the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona is the only undefeated team, and they look legit. Last week, they went into Los Angeles and beat the Rams by 17 points. Will they continue to excel on both sides of the ball?

Let’s discuss the point total.

This matchup opened with a 53.5-point total. Sunday night into Monday morning, we saw 100 percent of bettors siding with the under. From there, it didn’t take long for the sportsbooks to make a drastic move.

  • Monday at 2:07 a.m.: 53.5 points
  • Monday at 11:37 a.m.: 52 points
  • Monday at 12:37 p.m.: 50.5 points
  • Monday at 7:37 p.m.: 50 points

The point total stayed at 50.5 for a few hours, but bettors refused to back down. We saw 100 percent of them siding the under when it opened, and that’s where it stands.

It may be a bit risky because the Cardinals do have the number one offense with 35.0 points per game. And even with Garoppolo, the 49ers are seventh with 26.8 points per game. There’s a lot of people who believe the offense will be even better with Lance.

Both defenses have the talent to succeed, but we’ve seen mixed results.

Arizona has held three of its opponents to 20 points or less. However, the Minnesota Vikings managed to put 33 on the board. San Francisco allowed over 20 points in three of their four games.

I think the key to this point total is how Lance performs in his first career start.

NFL Betting Advice Week 5

I’m sure that was a lot to unpack, but I think it’ll make bettors feel a lot more comfortable about placing their bets.

We know the run game could pay dividends for the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings. Then, you have bettors backing the New Orleans Saints at (-2.0).

To top it off, you have to be aware of some line movement in the Bears vs. Raiders and 49ers vs. Cardinals matchups.

With that in mind, place your bets using the top NFL betting sites.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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