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Newcastle vs. Liverpool Betting Preview

| April 29, 2019 12:00 am PDT
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Predictions

It’s been a while since we’ve seen such a tight end of the English Premier League season. It’s a bit difficult to share accurate betting tips when the tension all around the EPL table is peaking.

One of the teams that will be feeling that tension the most is Liverpool.

The Reds are chasing Man City in an attempt to end a long dry spell, but they are running out of games. There are only two rounds left, and Liverpool will likely need to be perfect to retain any chance of claiming the EPL title.

Their next hurdle is the match against Newcastle. I feel it might be tougher than the odds seem to suggest.

If you want to learn why and check my final pick and predictions, take a closer look at my Newcastle vs. Liverpool betting preview below.

Newcastle vs. Liverpool Betting Odds

I decided to use the BetOnline odds for the most popular Newcastle vs. Liverpool betting markets.

Newcastle to Win10.50
Draw4.20
Liverpool to Win1.34
Over 3 Goals2.00
Under 3 Goals1.83

Everyone expects Liverpool to win this match, so the odds of 1.34 make sense from that point of view. And yet, the price seems too low for me. We all know that the EPL is a tough league, especially away from home.

The pressure will be on the Reds to win, and they have to play a semi-final in the UEFA Champions League against Barcelona on Wednesday. I don’t think that it will be easy for Klopp and his boys.

The total goals market seems even stranger to me. Liverpool has been relying on a strong defense the whole season. The influence of the back line was recognized, as Virgil van Dijk won the PFA Player of the Year award this week.

It would be logical for the Reds to depend on their best trait in this part of the season, so the odds for under 3 goals are certainly appealing.

Let’s take a look at both teams first, though, and I will share my final pick at the end of this betting preview.

Newcastle Team News and Analysis

The EPL season hasn’t exactly been easy for Newcastle, but the team found some consistency. It didn’t have too long losing streaks, so they achieved their survival rather comfortably.

With a couple of games left, the Magpies have nothing to worry about. The club is now playing for the fans and its pride.

The lack of pressure has improved Newcastle, which is unbeaten in their last three games in the EPL. Their performance hasn’t been exceptional, but both the defense and the offense are working right now.

The big question is if this will be enough against a team like Liverpool. My main concern for Newcastle is the lack of firepower up front. If we exclude the bottom four teams, the Magpies are the side with the lowest number of goals scored.

Additionally, they will be facing the best defense in the whole league. It’s safe to say that the chances for the home team will be rare.

At the same time, Newcastle can protect its own goal, too. The side has conceded 45 times so far, which is one of the best records if we exclude the big six.

Rafa Benitez has installed strong discipline, and the whole team is working hard. The Magpies should be able to keep Liverpool quiet for most of the match.

Since I mentioned the Spanish manager, that’s another factor that should be considered. I feel that the way Rafa was sacked by Liverpool about a decade ago might give him some extra motivation to stop the Reds.

Most of his squad will be available, and Newcastle is a proud club, so I expect a hostile environment for Liverpool on Saturday.

Liverpool Team News and Analysis

Liverpool’s current situation is strange. The team has been exceptional on the pitch for the large majority of the season and could finish the campaign by winning both the Champions League and the English Premier League.

Or the Reds could come up short on both fronts. They will have to overcome Barcelona to reach the UCL final, while Manchester City still has the title in its hands.

Finishing the season without a trophy would certainly disappoint the manager, the players, and the supporters. Jurgen Klopp will have the tough job of rotating properly and not letting that happen.

This week will be crucial because Liverpool will have to face Barcelona on Wednesday first. There’s no way the German won’t play his best eleven in this match.

At this point of the season, it would mean that there will be some changes for Saturday. I think they won’t affect the defense of Liverpool because most players in that area of the pitch are younger. They should be able to cope.

That can’t be said about the midfield and attack, as they will be forced to work relentlessly against Barcelona. On top of that, Roberto Firmino and Fabinho are having some health issues.

There will be some changes in personnel up front, so Klopp will be expecting a clean sheet and a goal or two at the other end. The victory is the only thing that matters, so a trashing is highly unlikely.

Newcastle – Liverpool Betting Pick and Prediction

I expect a close game, and I won’t be shocked if Liverpool actually fails to beat Newcastle. I’m really tempted to back the hosts with the +1.5 Asian handicap which is priced at 1.84. The bet will be successful even if the Magpies lose by one goal.

The odds of 1.83 for under 3 goals in the game look great, too. Liverpool will be relying on a clean sheet, while Newcastle can defend well, too.

If you add the pressure on the visitors and the need for changes after the Barcelona clash, I think that would be the better pick. I expect a score of 0-0 or 0-1, so let’s go for the under.

PICKUnder 3 Goals1.83

Final Words

If you like this betting preview, you should also check out my post on Wolves vs. Fulham. It includes similar analysis and betting picks. I’m planning to add another preview for Manchester City vs. Leicester, too, so be sure to check back for that.

As for the game between Newcastle and Liverpool, let me know if you agree with me or have other ideas. The comments section below is the place to share your opinion.

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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