Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks for the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400
If it feels like the 2021 NASCAR season is flying by, it’s because it has. The Daytona 500 is well behind us, and last week poured in the O’Reilly Parts 253.
Just like that, it’s onto the third race of the 2021 NASCAR schedule. That happens to be a trip to the Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida.
Sunday’s day in the sun will hopefully be without rain or extensive crashes. The NASCAR gods owe us that much.
Here’s a quick rundown of last week’s daily fantasy NASCAR picks.
- Chase Elliott (21st)
- Michael McDowell (8th)
- Kyle Busch (35th)
- Chris Buescher (11th)
- Erik Jones (14th)
- William Byron (33rd)
Imagine paying for Chase Elliott last week. My goodness. That, my friends, is a rough ticket.
I actually hit some decent value with Jones, Buescher, and McDowell, but my spends were just horrendous.
So far this year, the races have not gone as expected. That’s left the door open for some big upsets and solid value overall, but it’s worth wondering if things will begin evening out as the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 approaches.
In-house NASCAR betting guru Adam Haynes explored as much in his Dixie Vodka 400 betting preview, and I’m here to break things down from the DFS side.
Denny Hamlin ($9.6k)
Denny Hamlin hopes to repeat as the big winner after winning here in 2020, while the heavy-hitters have owned the spotlight here in the past.
He’s sitting in the top spot just like he was when he won last year. This seems like good news, while Hamlin has fared well in his last five runs at Homestead.
Hamlin’s strong driving at Homestead actually dates back even further, as he’s cracked the top-12 in each of his last eight tries. He got another win here back in 2013, too.
To top it off, Hamlin is too cheap right now. He’s almost $2k cheaper than the top-priced driver (Kyle Busch), and he’s in fantastic form with three top-10 runs to begin 2021.
I say Hamlin notches the win here, but at the very worst, I love him to hang inside the top-5.
Erik Jones ($6.9k)
When will I quit Erik Jones? Possibly never. The 24-year-old is an immensely talented driver, and he closed out last year in elite fashion.
He didn’t have much of a chance at the Daytona 500 this year thanks to a quick wreck just 15 laps in, but he bounced back last week. After starting in the 37th spot, he worked his way up to 14th.
That’s a moral win, while he has 17th and 8th place finishes in his other two races this year.
Going into the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400, he’ll settle into the 18th slot.
Jones is obviously an elite value, and he also finished third at Homestead back in 2019.
He’ll fly under the radar thanks to a somewhat slow start, but he’s run well here before, and I think his 18th starting spot is a nice little sweet spot.
Ultimately, you need some cheap guys you can trust, and there usually aren’t many. Jones stands out for the Dixie Vodka 400, as he’s got the fifth best points projection, and he’ll be a staple of my NASCAR DFS lineups this weekend.
Joey Logano ($9.3k)
I just don’t want to pay up for the pricey guys this weekend. Hamlin is not cheap, but he’s at an incredible discount. The same can be said for Logano.
These are the type of dudes who can easily win this thing (and have), happen to be in fantastic form, and also start this race off in the front row.
I know that can be really bad if things don’t go as planned, but I can’t ignore the value here. I’m not the only one getting in on the Logano stock now, either.
Logano has fared very well at Homestead. He won here in 2018, and in his last six trips to this track, he’s finished outside of the top six just once.
If you go back further, he’s run so well here that he’s finished worse than 16th just once since 2012, and he’s been outside of the top-20 one time since 2011.
That one time of course came last year, so with a lot of love going to Kyle Busch and others, I’ll hold out hope a discounted Logano will go overlooked.
Top NASCAR DFS Lineup for Dixie Vodka 400
- Denny Hamlin ($9.6k)
- Erik Jones ($6.9k)
- Joey Logano ($9.3k)
- Aric Almirola ($7.9k)
- Austin Dillon ($7.7k)
- Alex Bowman ($8.3k)
I am rostering two elite drivers at discounted rates, largely because nobody else wants to. It is a blessing and a curse to be in that front row.
For GPPs, I love the idea of taking a shot on both Hamlin and Logano relying on their experience and elite form at this track to hold down the fort. If I’m even close to right, they could be beautiful plays at estimated 17% and 7% ownership.
From there, I’ll eat the chalk with Erik Jones, who continues to be way too cheap. Course history helps him here, too, but more than anything, he’s a great driver that doesn’t cost enough.
That’s three additional drivers that are a lot better than their prices suggest, while Bowman specifically grades out as an elite play based on the latest projections.
Bowman finished a respectable 18th at Homestead in 2020, and he was 9th here in 2019. He could be building up some momentum after finishing 10th last week, although if you want a more contrarian play in that same price range, I don’t hate Tyler Reddick.
Almirola is another terrific option who is in the top half of the field when the race starts. He’s been rock solid here, with 5th, 22nd, 9th, and 18th place finishes over his last four visits.
If you want to bet on this race, know that Adam Haynes also has Amirola singled out among his top Dixie Vodka 400 sleepers.
He doesn’t need to win this thing, though. He just needs to be competitive, and his early projections are plenty solid.
I’ll cap things off with Dillon, who is off to a really nice start in 2021, as he finished 3rd at the Daytona 500, and he won the Bluegreens Vacations Duel 2.
Dillon is pretty appealing out of the 22nd spot. He finished 7th here last year, and has been rock solid with finishes at 18th, 8th, 11th, 11th, 12th, and 14th over his last seven trips to Homestead in the Cup Series.
This is the rare week where I am totally game for risking it all on the guys up front. Some of them, anyways.
Usually I want some stud drivers who start back a little further, and I certainly want value plays that are almost all the way in the back.
Keep in mind that isn’t a cash game approach, as I am going more contrarian here. I’ll just keep tacking on the value with Jones and Bowman, although they both admittedly project absurdly well right now.
If you want to push things back with a safer approach, perhaps focus on Kyle Busch up top, and also look to guys like Matt DiBenedetto, Tyler Reddick, and William Byron.
Whatever you do, hopefully I can nudge you in the right direction. If you don’t love my NASCAR DFS picks, maybe you can at least parlay some of my insight into some winning bets.
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