Most Likely Winners at the 2021 Emmy Awards

| July 22, 2021 10:40 am PDT
ted lasso, the crown, kate winslet

The 2021 Emmys nominees are now public, and in a little less than two months, the big winners in Hollywood will be known.

It’s arguable they already are, of course, as some of the favorites in the big categories have overwhelming odds. As in, odds that are so good that it may be a total waste of time to bet on them.

Of course, that does leave room for some Emmy sleepers to emerge as alluring bets, and with all the 2021 Emmys snubs and surprises going on, maybe this thing isn’t in the bag like we think it is.

That said, betting on the Emmy Awards is usually a four-step process. Step one is actually paying attention to the nominees. Step two is for corralling the odds. Step three involves watching the shows, and step four is deciding who should win.

As things stand, I have a list of the most likely Emmys winners in 2021. Whether you should bet on them or not remains to be seen.

Jason Sudeikis – Best Actor in a Comedy Series (-2000)

This is about as home run as an Emmys bet gets. The only negative here is Sudeikis’ amazing work in Ted Lasso was so good (and is such a safe bet) that you have to pay $2,000 to get $100 at most entertainment betting sites.

Sudeikis deserves to win, of course. Eugene Levy got the swan song vote in 2020, but it’s Sudeikis’ turn.

He’s had a roller-coaster year, too, as detailed in his revealing interview with GQ Magazine.

Sudeikis is pretty grounded for a comedic superstar, and with another brilliant turn in Ted Lasso, he’s only going to keep growing in Hollywood.

The hype around him and his show is real, but even if it were overblown, his competition just isn’t scary. Michael Douglas (+600) is his only real threat and calling him that is being appallingly nice.

I suppose William H. Macy (+1200) is in the running for the “he’s due” nod, but this is 100% Sudeikis’ award to lose.

The Crown – Best Drama Series (-1200)

Who knew a story about a queen could be so riveting?

Most have bought in by now, as the critically acclaimed The Crown has given audiences borderline immaculate direction, production, acting, and storytelling across four drama-drenched seasons.

The Crown could easily be seen as something greater than the sum of its parts, but the acting and directing individually have been phenomenal. To go from Claire Foy to Olivia Colman without missing a beat alone is quite the feat.

There was no visible drop-off in season four, as the show actually found a way to get even better, scoring its highest Rotten Tomatoes grade (96%) yet.

Gillian Anderson’s powerhouse performance, coupled with the amazing cast and direction, cemented season four as one of the best seasons on television in recent memory.

The only deterrent to The Crown’s continued dominance? It’s a stellar competition. The Handmaid’s Tale (+700) is a worthy rival, while Bridgerton (+1400) and Pose (+1400) may not be the worst flier bets.

The -1200 price should leave most bettors sheepish on pulling the trigger on this bet, but that doesn’t mean The Crown isn’t a great bet to win Best Drama Series for the first time ever.

Ted Lasso – Best Comedy Series (-1500)

If you’re with me on Jason Sudeikis being one of the most likely 2021 Emmys winners, you’re probably with me here, too.

Sudeikis’ affable character is obviously the main selling point for this show, seeing as it’s built around his approachability and zaniness.

The show has been a huge hit, and you honestly can see why with one look at the trailer.

Ted Lasso isn’t just about the titular character, as the cast as a whole is severely underrated, and this is quite simply one of the most complete (and most hilarious) shows on TV right now.

You get slightly better betting value by hammering Ted Lasso for the win instead of betting on Sudeikis, but there’s a clear incentive to look elsewhere.

Hacks and The Flight Attendant are both worth arguing over, but neither truly holds a candle to what Ted Lasso has become. The odds tell the story here; Ted Lasso is one of the likely winners at the 2021 Emmy Awards.

RuPaul’s Drag Race – Best Competition Program (-600)

If you look at the odds, RuPaul, and co. look like a slam dunk to secure yet another win.

This reality TV show has won in this category in each of the last three seasons, and it’s likely to go for a fourth. RuPaul’s Drag Race has been around since 2009, but it weirdly didn’t get proper recognition until 2017, when it landed its first nomination.

It’s been nothing but full speed ahead ever since, with The Voice being the only other reality TV show that really gave it any issue.

The Voice is still in the mix this year (+1200), while Nailed It! (+400) and Top Chef (+700) could always vie for the upset. However, RuPaul’s Drag Race continues to grade out exceptionally well (100% rating in 2020), and there is little reason to suspect an upset.

As far as the most likely 2021 Emmys winners go, this one offers some of the best value, too.

Kate Winslet – Best Actress in a Limited Series/Movie (-150)

I’ll leave you with this last likely winner for the 2021 Emmys. I’m picking this one because it’s far less ghastly than uber-favorites like Gillian Anderson (-2000) or Jean Smart (-900) in terms of betting odds.

There has been enough fawning over intense favorites in this Emmys breakdown, so at least bettors can march forward with a little value in their back pocket.

The catch? I don’t believe these odds will be this short for much longer. Kate Winslet was sensational in Mare of Easttown, and her odds will grow from here. The time to bet is now.

I started watching Mare of Easttown and couldn’t stop. Winslet got a little help with the dark and winding story, but she breathed serious life into an initially unlikable, dusty detective.

Winslet’s character was obsessed with her work, lacked visible vulnerability, and never knew when to pick her battles. It ultimately led to some insane twists and serious character development, however, and gave us an ending we’d never have expected.

While Mare of Easttown as a whole is equally deserving of a win at the 2021 Emmys, its Winslet contained ferocity that punishes and rewards the audience at a staggering rate.

Anya Taylor-Joy (+150) is her only competition here. It’s actually a pretty daunting competition, but Winslet is an aging star that deserves this nod, and I think she’ll get it.

Betting on the 2021 Emmy Awards

This is just the tip of the iceberg when plotting your 2021 Emmys bets. As I said, there is a process to this. I’m writing this in late July, so there’s just under two months when the show goes live on September 19th.

Before then, you’ll also want to check out some of the top value bets, and getting your hands dirty at some of the biggest 2021 Emmys snubs and surprises isn’t a bad idea, either.

I’ll be back with more insight into how to bet on the Emmy Awards in 2021, including sleeper picks and my ultimate predictions for who will win each major category.

For now, this list of likely 2021 Emmys winners is a great place to start.

Most of the actors, actresses, and shows seen here are probably going to win. They’re priced at insane rates, though, so you may need to pick a different category to bet on or go against the grain and call for an upset.

Whatever the case, there will be more Emmys betting content coming your way over at our entertainment betting blog.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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