Monday Night Football DFS Picks and Lineup Advice – Rams vs. Buccaneers (Week 11)
Week 11 was a nightmare shadowing for daily fantasy football. A lot of chalk value blew up in our face, and some of the tried and true stars just didn’t have it this week.
It’s tough to expect the disappointment to stop on Monday Night Football, when two strong defensive teams wage war.
This is a really intense showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are very balanced, play good defense, and can run the football. They’re also trying to win so they have a shot at first place in their respective divisions.
While I tend to think we get a defensive battle, the betting sites still list this game with a total around 48. Things lean Tampa Bay’s way, as they’re 4.5-point favorites at home.
But how does that translate into the fantasy realm? I’ll break things down and offer my top Monday Night Football DFS showdown picks for week 11, as well as my favorite lineup.
Top Showdown Picks for MNF
- Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers ($11k)
- Jared Goff, QB, Rams ($9.8k)
- Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams ($9.2k)
- Ronald Jones II, RB, Buccaneers ($8.8k)
- Robert Woods, WR, Rams ($8.2k)
- Antonio Brown, WR, Buccaneers ($7.8k)
The Buccaneers are loaded on offense, as you know, so this list could easily be longer. I’ll stop it here, though, as these are my favorite MNF DFS picks when it comes to matchup, pricing, and upside.
Mike Evans is quite touchdown dependent these days. As is Rob Gronkowski. The Rams have a collection of running backs sharing touches in a bad matchup, while it’s arguable that you just need to pick the right side between Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.
I do think the top play here is Brady. The Rams have a good defense, but he has so many weapons, and he does a good job of getting the ball out quickly.
Goff has to be mentioned as a possible top play, but I think that’s mostly because he’ll be playing from behind. Tampa Bay’s main strength is their run defense, but they also generate pressure and force turnovers.
I’m mostly on the Bucs side of this, and we can’t ignore how good Ronald Jones II was last week.
The matchup isn’t amazing, but he should get the work. He’s also fairly explosive, and if the Bucs are leading in this one like they’re supposed to, he could get more touches as the game progresses.
As for the Rams, we can attach Cupp or Woods to Goff. Their matchup isn’t great, but Tampa Bay’s weakness is still through the air on defense. Both of these guys are shifty and even somewhat explosive, so they’ll be worth a look.
Best MNF Showdown Sleepers
- Malcolm Brown, RB, Rams ($5.4k)
- Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers ($4.4k)
- Cam Akers, RB, Rams ($2.8k)
- Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($2.2k)
You can feel free to create MNF DFS Showdown lineups with the kickers and defenses. It’s not a terrible idea, but the upside is low, and everything needs to go perfectly for that route to lead you to the top of a GPP.
I’ll roll with these MNF DFS sleepers. Brown is pretty interesting at this price. Yes, the Rams have a tough matchup and they are using three running backs right now, but he is a guy they turn to inside the red-zone (2 touchdowns last week), and he’s still involved for about 10 touches per game.
I tend to prefer the savings with Akers, of course. He’s the more explosive runner, and he finally is getting involved again. He’s a dice roll, but he had 10 carries last week and it’s possible he could be used more as a receiver if the Rams trail late.
The same goes for Fournette. If you think L.A. is the aggressor here, Fournette has some appeal with the Bucs theoretically playing from behind. He could also just be a change-of-pace GPP play, or you could hope he vultures a short TD from Jones.
That, or Jones’ history with fumbling comes back to bite him and we get an elite Fournette at a discount price. The paths to surprisingly good value are actually aplenty here.
Lastly, we can swing for the fences with Brate. He saw three targets last week and converted them into three catches for 31 yards and a score.
Obviously he’s cheap, but he’s the top backup to Rob Gronkowski, too. He’s an elite leverage play on the Gronk and Mike Evans ownership, as he could easily vulture a short score or two.
My Favorite Week 11 MNF Lineup
- Captain: Antonio Brown, WR, Buccaneers ($11.7k)
- FLEX: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers ($11k)
- FLEX: Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($2.2k)
- FLEX: Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams ($6.8k)
- FLEX: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers ($8.4k)
- FLEX: Jared Goff, QB, Rams ($9.8k)
This is a pretty straightforward Monday Night Football DFS Showdown lineup. The approach is clear; the Bucs carve up the Rams through the air with simply too many weapons to cover, and the Rams play catch-up in a losing effort.
I am not particularly drawn to either ground game here. Not only do both sides potentially share the wealth too much in that area, but neither has a great matchup on paper, either.
Ronald Jones II is the priority if you must have a running back, but I probably won’t play that game.
The way to differentiate here is to Captain Brown and also punt with Brate.
As noted, Brate is a really interesting red-zone option, and he’d potentially make paying for Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski a total waste of time.
Both of those guys can make an impact between the 20s, but most of their value this year comes from scoring. If the Rams make an effort to prevent them from being the guys who get it done close to the end-zone, Brate could be a great play at this price.
Brown is just due to pop off. He and Brady have a good connection, and his role is only growing. I think he scores in this game, and the way Brady operates, it’s likely Brown continues to be peppered with targets.
Goff and Reynolds are a fine way to run it back on the other side with the Rams. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp could be great and are totally worth paying for, but Reynolds quietly turned 10 targets into eight catches last week.
With the Bucs likely focusing on Woods and Kupp, Reynolds could get overlooked here.
It isn’t easy to nail the perfect MNF DFS Showdown lineup, but I will try to give you a winning squad each week.
The process starts with pointing out the top Monday Night Football DFS Showdown picks and sleepers, and then just giving you some insight as to why certain options could be worth using.
When it comes to my favorite MNF DFS Showdown lineup, it’s all about personal preference, and how I think this game plays out. Even then, there are still other ways to go, and you should certainly be entertaining the idea of entering multiple lineups into contests.
Whatever you do, I wish you well. If you want to get a little more action on Monday Night Football, check out these two MNF betting posts.