Predictions and Picks for MLB Games on Thursday, June 30th, 2022

By Nicholas Sterling in MLB
| June 30, 2022 8:14 am PDT
MLB logo centered, San Diego Padres logo, New York Yankees logo, and Freddie Freeman

The final day of June will mark the end of my MLB picks. We’ve had an amazing season, holding a 92-64 record through June, with my best bets going 31-20. Hopefully, I’ve earned everyone money as we approach the halfway point of the 2022 season.

We have a small slate of MLB action for Thursday, as the MLB odds have seven games available. The only game without odds is the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays.

Will my MLB predictions close June with a bang? Let’s find out.

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It’s impossible to make my free MLB picks today without exploring where to bet on MLB games. Thankfully, we have a few sites that give you up-to-date odds.

BetOnline Sports is typically my favorite site because they’re the first to post MLB betting odds. I’m not exclusive to BetOnline Sports, as every site publishes the odds a day before the games. From there, it’s all about finding the most value.

Mobile betting has been on the rise in the last few years. Feel free to check out the best baseball betting apps to make your MLB predictions.

MLB Odds for Thursday, June 30th, 2022

  • Twins (+134) vs. Guardians (-145), O/U 8
  • Braves (+118) vs. Phillies (-128), O/U 8
  • Yankees (-113) vs. Astros (+103), O/U 8.5
  • Brewers (-125) vs. Pirates (+115), O/U 8.5
  • Reds (+108) vs. Cubs (-118)
  • Padres (+110) vs. Dodgers (-120), O/U 8
  • Athletics (+184) vs. Mariners (-201), O/U 7.5

The Cleveland Guardians open the day as the favorite. They’ve been strong against the spread, covering 53.5 percent of their games. Cleveland and the Minnesota Twins have been around .500 with the run total.

It’s all about the run total for the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia leads the majors with a 42-31-2 mark, but Atlanta is fifth at 39-33-1. Do your MLB betting picks have a high-scoring game?

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros have a combined 77-73 record against the spread. Both teams are among the league leaders at going under the run total.

I didn’t expect the Milwaukee Brewers to be slight favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Perhaps it has to do with the Brewers having the third-worst record against the spread.

Unfortunately, we don’t have MLB odds for the Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs run total. I can tell you neither team has been strong against the spread. Cincinnati’s 35-40 record is fifth-worst in the majors.

Unsurprisingly, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers rank top 10 against the spread. More surprisingly, they are bottom ten at going over their run total. How does your MLB picks today view this matchup?

The final matchup of the day features the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners. Neither team has been great against the spread, with Oakland carrying the sixth-worst mark. Both teams have favored the under this season.

Top MLB Predictions for Thursday’s Games

  • Twins Over Guardians
  • Phillies Over Braves
  • Yankees Over Astros
  • Brewers Over Pirates
  • Reds Over Cubs
  • Padres Over Dodgers
  • Mariners Over Athletics
Milwaukee Brewers logo

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians have been going back and forth for the AL Central lead. Minnesota is starting to gain separation, and my MLB expert picks have them scoring the win. I expect a competitive pitching matchup.

We should see a fun NL East battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia won’t have Bryce Harper after he underwent thumb surgery, but starter Aaron Nola has a 0.90 ERA in his last four starts.

Last week, we saw a competitive four-game series between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. New York earned a split despite going 16 innings without a hit. My MLB free picks have them scoring the win.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a narrow lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. Milwaukee has been playing much better than the Pittsburgh Pirates lately.

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 5-1
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-6

The other NL Central matchup on Thursday features the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs. Both starting pitchers have been inconsistent, so I’m taking the value with the Reds. That’s how to approach my free MLB picks if you’re unsure.

I’m taking an upset with the San Diego Padres defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers. The latest 2022 NL MVP odds had Mookie Betts and Manny Machado as top contenders, but neither player is healthy.

Joe Musgrove should bounce back after a rough start.

The Oakland Athletics have the worst record in the majors. Logan Gilbert has cooled off after a hot start, but Oakland has little hope. Seattle should score the win as they pursue a wild-card spot.

Best Bets for the MLB Games on 6/30/22

Padres to Win+110
Brewers vs. Pirates Over 8.5 Runs-120
Yankees to Win-113

My MLB best bets have been struggling lately. Hopefully, we can close my MLB baseball free picks with a bang.

The San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers loses its luster without Manny Machado and Mookie Betts. Neither team has been great lately, holding a combined 10-10 record in their last 20 games. Padres starter Joe Musgrove gives the Padres the advantage.

Musgrove is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing a season-high six runs against the Philadelphia Phillies. Still, he allowed two or fewer runs in his other 12 starts. Dodgers starter Mitch White has a 4.25 ERA. That should give San Diego the upper hand.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a slight favorite despite having a much better record than the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think that’s the case because of the pitching matchup. Check out the numbers.

Stats Adrian Houser (Brewers) JT Brubaker (Pirates)
ERA 4.50 4.14
WHIP 1.45 1.43
Walks 30 31
Strikeouts 57 76

The high ERA helps the chances of this game hitting the over. The WHIP would be the biggest concern if I were a fan of either team. They are allowing way too many base runners to win games.

Will we see another exciting matchup between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros? New York started and ended the series with a walk-off, but Houston pitched a combined no-hitter. They held the Yankees hitless for 16 straight innings.

It’s not often you find the Yankees as a slight favorite. Houston has been playing well lately, but the Yankees have the offensive advantage.

New York and Houston rank first and second in bullpen ERA. Both starting pitchers have produced quality numbers. The Yankees’ offense gives them the upper hand.

Best MLB Player Props for June 28th, 2022

Joey Gallo Under 0.5 Hits+140
Luis Severino Over 6.5 Strikeouts+106
Freddie Freeman to Record an RBI+150

My MLB expert picks have the New York Yankees scoring the win, but it likely won’t be a product of Joey Gallo.

Gallo has struggled in his second season with the Yankees, hitting .167 with nine home runs and 18 RBIs. New York’s great offense has masked his struggles, but it’s hard for a Yankees fan to miss. Gallo is in the midst of the worst stretch of his career.

I wouldn’t count on him turning it around on Thursday. He’s 0-7 against the Houston Astros in 2022.

New York may not beat Houston because of Gallo, but starting pitcher Luis Severino should play a key role. Severino has a 3.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts. His strikeouts have been on the rise lately.

Over the last five starts, his 44 strikeouts trail only Dylan Cease and Charlie Morton. That includes a seven-strikeout game against the Astros. That’s the lowest strikeout performance in his last five starts. I expect another strong performance as Severino helps the Yankees score the victory.

Freddie Freeman has been dealing with off-the-field issues surrounding his agent, but his bat has been on fire lately.

Freddie Freeman
  • .395 batting average
  • 3 home runs
  • 12 RBIs
  • 8 runs

His 12 RBIs since June 19 lead the majors. Freeman has been swinging a hot bat. You would think it’s a tough matchup with Joe Musgrove, but Freeman has had his number.

Freeman is 6-15 with a home run and three RBIs against Musgrove. This will be their first matchup of 2022, but Freeman went 2-2 against Musgrove on September 26, 2021.

Please visit the top MLB betting sites to bet on Thursday’s MLB action.

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