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MLB DFS and Betting on 5/10 – Odds, Lines, Predictions and Picks

| May 10, 2019 12:00 am PDT
MLB Daily Fantasy and Betting Picks

The transition from smaller Thursday slates to Friday’s is always a difficult one in baseball.

It’s one thing to try to focus on a smaller set of games and gauge the top options, but when you have double the teams playing, things can get confusing in a hurry.

Whatever your process is, my main goal each week is to just make things a bit easier for one day. I like that being a Friday, as it’s the last day in the regular work week and my favorite slate to spend a lot of time on.

Besides, what’s better than strolling into the weekend with fat stacks earned from betting on baseball or nailing a big MLB DFS lineup? Not much.

I can’t make promises in regards to winning, but I’ll try my best. Let’s start things off with a look at today’s MLB odds and work from there.

Early MLB Betting Lines For 5/10

Whether you plan on doing any MLB betting or not, looking at the early baseball lines is good for hitting the top MLB sportsbooks or using it to build winning MLB DFS lineups.

Either way, those odds shape the entire slate and help you see where you want to invest money in every regard.

Let’s get started with a quick look at Friday’s MLB odds at BetOnline.

  • Milwaukee Brewers N/A vs. Chicago Cubs N/A
  • Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) -112 vs. Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) -108
  • Chicago White Sox (+1.5) -162 vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) +142
  • Miami Marlins (+1.5) -140 vs. New York Mets (-1.5) +120
  • Seattle Mariners (+1.5) -110 vs. Boston Red Sox (-1.5) -110
  • New York Yankees (+1.5) -160 vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) +140
  • Detroit Tigers (+1.5) -110 vs. Minnesota Twins (-1.5) -110
  • Texas Rangers (+1.5) +110 vs. Houston Astros (-1.5) -130
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) -155 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) +135
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) +100 vs. Kansas City Royals (+1.5) -120
  • San Diego Padres (+1.5) -130 vs. Colorado Rockies (-1.5) +110
  • Atlanta Braves (+1.5) -170 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) +150
  • Cleveland Indians N/A vs. Oakland Athletics N/A
  • Washington Nationals (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) +100
  • Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) +115 vs. San Francisco Giants (+1.5) -135

One big thing to remember is to be sure how weather is going to impact some of these games.

How the wind is blowing at Wrigley Field could greatly influence how you bet on or use that Cubs vs. Brewers game, while the weather could get you on/off of Coors and other spots.

There are several intense games on the docket, but some offer better value than others. Let’s dive in and see which way you’ll want to be leaning in both betting and DFS circles tonight.

Friday’s Safest MLB Wager

My favorite play on the board last week ended up being the Cleveland Indians as a -140 straight up wager. They ended up beating the visiting Seattle Mariners (2-1), so congrats if you rolled with me on that bet.

This is a huge MLB betting slate and plenty to consider, but of the many solid options I think the St. Louis Cardinals (-145) stand out the most. This isn’t the best value you can go after on the slate by any means, but the point of this section is to get you a win at a solid price.

St. Louis went nuts last night and they’ll again be at home (14-6 at Busch Stadium this year) against a pretty beatable arm in Trevor Williams. Even if the bats aren’t as hot as they were last night, I think the Cards keep the positive momentum going and get a winning streak going.

Top MLB Underdog Pick For 5/10

I pointed to the Mets and Giants as potential upset picks last week and split them right down the middle. There is actually a lot to like in terms of elite betting value on this slate, so I’ll admit you could go in a number of directions when hunting for a MLB upset pick.

While true, nothing looks better to me than the Seattle Mariners (+185) as a straight up underdog over the Boston Red Sox. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound and while he’s good, the Mariners have the righty power to exploit this matchup.

Fenway is not an easy park to pitch in, so feel free to target the Over (9.5, -115) in this one as well.

Other MLB Bets to Target

Seattle is the top MLB upset pick in my mind, but there is more MLB betting value to be had with underdog money elsewhere.

Here are some of my other favorite MLB upset picks for Friday, 5/10:

  • Milwaukee Brewers +119
  • New York Yankees +143
  • San Diego Padres +160
  • San Francisco Giants +138

Milwaukee heads to Chicago to battle the Cubs in a tense divisional series. The Cubs are in first place and have been very good at home, but these teams hate each other and Milwaukee has enough righty power to potentially get to Jose Quintana.

The Yanks are slowly getting healthy and while I hate the park downgrade and matchup (they face Tyler Glasnow), they still pack some power and have been in good form (6-4 over their last 10).

San Diego is much improved this year and their progressing power in Coors Field is a fun thought. German Marquez isn’t an easy draw, but any lineup can mash in this park. The Padres feel disrespected here.

I also don’t mind the Giants. Luis Castillo could wreck them tonight, but San Francisco could contain the Reds just as easily. A tight 2-1 win for the home team isn’t unrealistic, especially when you note Cincy’s erratic offense and road struggles (7-14 away from home).

MLB DFS Picks For Friday, 5/10

It’s onto the daily fantasy baseball scene we go. You can bet on the plays above or just use my insight and the latest MLB betting lines in your DFS research.

Either way, let’s shift our focus strictly to daily fantasy baseball as I try to piece together a winner over at DraftKings:

Top Pitchers to Consider

There is one obvious stud arm tonight and a slew of viable options beneath him. You should have plenty of options to work with, but these guys are my favorites:

  • Justin Verlander – Houston Astros ($11k)
  • Luis Castillo – Cincinnati Reds ($10.6k)
  • Zack Wheeler – New York Mets ($9.7k)
  • Kenta Maeda – Los Angeles Dodgers ($9.2k)
  • Jake Odorizzi – Minnesota Twins ($8.8k)
  • Clay Buchholz – Toronto Blue Jays ($7.3k)
  • Trevor Cahill – Los Angeles Angels ($7.1k)
  • Dereck Rodriguez – San Francisco Giants ($6.3k)
  • Dylan Covey – Chicago White Sox ($6.2k)

This isn’t to say you can’t use Tyler Glasnow or any of the other solid pitching talents I’ve left out; I just personally don’t love some guys and you need to take stances at some point.

My pitcher pool is what you see here and it’s fair to assume a few of the guys at the bottom are pure price/matchup plays – because they totally are.

I don’t know if I can actually stomach paying almost $9k for Odorizzi, but he’s on the table. I prefer Wheeler in that range, while paying all the way up for JV makes good sense tonight.

Covey is not a reliable pitcher and his downside is baked into his price. But Toronto isn’t good and they just got whiffed 11 times by Kyle Gibson of all people. No, seriously.

Considering these hurlers as you piece together your MLB DFS lineups tonight. Onto the hitting!

Best Bats to Roster

I think there are some obvious spots to attack hitting tonight. Coors Field is one, while lefties versus both Julio Teheran and Lance Lynn is a thing.

Targeting guys like Dan Straily, Homer Bailey, Tyson Ross and of course the aforementioned Covey will all be viable takes as well.

Let’s see how much of that rubs off on my top play at each hitting position at DraftKings tonight:

  • C: Francisco Mejia – San Diego Padres ($3.3k)

Assuming Mejia gets the nod in Coors, he’s too cheap to not use at a weak position.

J.T. Realmuto and Chris Iannetta also stand out as catchers worth spending on, while a full punt with the likes of Martin Maldonado isn’t the worst idea.

  • 1B: Matt Olson – Oakland Athletics ($4.1k)

I’d also flirt with spending on Edwin Encarnacion here, just because he’s on fire (4 HR in last 5 games) and will be at Fenway Park against a southpaw.

That all sounds good, but Olson brings nice pop to the table as well and will face the beatable Cody Anderson, who has allowed a mind-boggling .433 wOBA and .333 ISO to lefties this year.

The sample size is incredibly small, but Anderson has had hard contact issues in the past and will be pitching on the road. Olson hasn’t been back long, but he could be primed for his first dong (or two) of the year.

  • 2B: Tommy La Stella – Los Angeles Angels ($4.3k)

Is La Stella for real? I feel I’ve asked myself this 20 times this year already. He just double-donged in his last game, though, so let’s go for a ride tonight.

Here’s the reality; La Stella is showing improved power and he gets a big park upgrade at Camden Yards. He’s sporting a gross .301 ISO versus righties in 2019, while he takes on Dan Straily, who so far this year is allowing a .383 wOBA and .317 ISO to lefty bats.

Both sides are due for regression and the numbers don’t always align, but this spot demands we try it. Max Muncy and Ketel Marte also look like fine plays, but are expensive. Jose Altuve ($4.6k) may be too good of a value to get cute anywhere else, too.

A cheap Ian Kinsler ($3.6k!) at Coors Field also can’t be brushed to the side too quickly if he starts.

  • 3B: Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals ($3.8k)

Carpenter is just too cheap. I also love Nolan Arenado as much as anyone else and Eduardo Escobar has a favorable matchup, but dollar for dollar, Carp is the top 3B play.

Trevor Williams isn’t a scary pitcher and he’s having difficulty against lefties this year. Not only is he allowing a .342 wOBA, but his K rate declines by 9% and his walk rate doubles.

This is key, especially against a guy like Carp that can whiff a good deal and doesn’t hit the ball into the dirt that much. This could be a nice spot for Carpenter to let it rip.

  • SS: Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians ($4.5k)

Manny Machado and Trevor Story are in Coors and are excellent spends, while Eduardo Escobar is in a great spot. You can save some cash by pivoting down to Lindor, who is every bit as talented as these guys.

Lindor sees a park downgrade, but he faces an overrated arm in Frankie Montas. Montas can whiff a bit, but he has a harder time against lefties and can struggle with contact. Lindor is a steady hitter who can switch to the left to exploit this matchup. I think he comes out a winner tonight.

  • OF: Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Angels ($4.9k)

I’ve been waiting for the perfect spot to target Ohtani since his return and I think this is it. I love the Halos as a mild to full stack against a beatable pitcher in a great park and Ohtani is part of that.

Ohtani hasn’t been great since returning from injury, but he provided a nasty .344 ISO versus right-handed pitching last year. Eventually that power will come back and I wouldn’t be shocked if we finally saw it in an awesome spot tonight.

Khris Davis ($4.2k) and Josh Reddick ($3.9k) feel like solid value plays if you’re looking to save a bit at one OF spot.

My Optimal Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup For 5/10

I try to mix things up a bit and roll out a team with some chalky plays and a few that could differentiate things in tournaments. My stacks have not panned out at all the past two weeks, but eventually the tide will turn.

Let’s see what my favorite group looks like for Friday night’s massive 14-game main slate at DraftKings.

  • SP1: Zack Wheeler – New York Mets ($9.7k)
  • SP2: Dylan Covey – Chicago White Sox ($6.2k)
  • C: Martin Maldonado – Kansas City Royals ($2.5k)
  • 1B: Matt Olson – Oakland Athletics ($4.1k)
  • 2B: Tommy La Stella – Los Angeles Angels ($4.3k)
  • 3B: Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals ($3.8k)
  • SS: Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians ($4.5k)
  • OF: Khris Davis – Oakland Athletics ($4.2k)
  • OF: Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Angels ($4.9k)
  • OF: Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels ($5.7k)

I’m building around a 3-4 man Halos stack (pivot from Olson to Justin Bour to aim high and make it four) and pivoting off of JV to Wheeler up top. The rest of my guys are value plays and Covey is a risk I think is worth taking at least once in tournaments.

I am taking some risks here and trying to create a roster with the right chalk plays and some contrarian plays that can give me a boost and differentiate my roster in appropriate spots.

Two spots tonight are SP2 and catcher. Things can change based on weather and lineups – and believe me I know how horrible Covey can go – but the upside could be worth the risk.

After all, if Kyle Gibson can dominate the hapless Jays like he did the other day, Covey has a shot.

The rest of this lineup hopefully speaks for itself and if you want to make alterations, just reference my pivots in my blurbs or my pitcher list. Thanks for reading and I wish you luck in your MLB betting and DFS contests tonight!

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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