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Liverpool vs. Man. City on October 7th – Betting Preview with Prediction and Free Pick

| October 5, 2018 12:00 am PDT
Liverpool vs. Man. City Betting Preview and Prediction

Many believed that there was only one team that could stop Manchester City this year, and that’s Liverpool.

Jurgen Klopp needed some time to install his ideas, but the current squad of the Reds is considered as one of the favorites both in the English Premier League and the UEFA Champions League.

The start of the season confirmed that, as Liverpool won seven games in a row in all competitions and looked invincible in the process. Even when the club wasn’t playing that well, it found a way to get the required result.

This is now over, as Liverpool was knocked out from the Carabao Cup last week, almost lost against Chelsea last Saturday, and was defeated by Napoli in the Champions League.

It was a harsh reality check for everyone around the club, but I’m not sure if that’s a bad thing at this point of the season.

The problem for Klopp is that his team will now have to face Manchester City, arguably the strongest team in England. The reigning champions had their own problems at the start of the campaign but are doing reasonably well so far.

I can’t wait to watch this game, as the clash between Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola always produces exciting games.

However, my main objective will be to analyze both teams, as well as the odds offered by the best EPL betting sites, and see if there are opportunities to make some money.

Liverpool vs. Manchester City Betting Odds

First things first, so let’s take a look at the two main betting markets for this match.

Liverpool to Win2.56
Draw3.20
Manchester City to Win2.73
Over 2.75 Goals1.82
Under 2.75 Goals2.02

The game will probably be close, and the bookies agree. Manchester City is the team with the best squad of 25 players, but Liverpool’s core and the home advantage are the reasons why the odds are so tight. Still, I feel that the reigning champions have the momentum.

As for the goals market, I don’t see a surprise there. The line is high, and the odds for the over 2.75 are lower because this game will feature the two best attacking teams in the English Premier League.

The last five matches between Liverpool and Manchester City produced a total of 21 goals. It won’t be shocking to see a lot of chances on Sunday, considering the kind of players employed by both clubs.

At first glance, it seems hard to find any value, but let’s take a deeper look at what both teams could offer.

Liverpool

At the start of the season, it looked like Liverpool simply couldn’t lose. The team won all of the first seven games in all tournaments.

The major improvement compared to last year was that the Reds actually found a way to win even the matches that weren’t going well.

The defense is the main reason for that, as the new keeper Alisson Becker and the new duo between Joe Gomez and Virgil Van Dijk provide a steady platform at the back.

The players that play in front of them have the confidence that they are not under pressure to score every single chance.However, it was not all perfect.

I would argue that Liverpool was lucky at times because the team wasn’t always dominating the games.

There were moments of pressure that suggested that the Reds would get punished eventually.

The last two weeks showed that Liverpool has a couple of issues that Jurgen Klopp will have to work on. Despite the improvement at the back and the devastating trio up front, the side is not very good at controlling the tempo of the games.

A closer look at some of the matches so far points at the fact that the opponent was often able to fiercely push Liverpool.

If that continues to happen, Klopp’s team won’t be able to find the consistency required to win the title, especially since their main rival has, in my opinion, the best squad in the history of English soccer.

I think the problem is related to the type of midfielders the German likes.

Most of them are hard workers who could run up and down the pitch all day long, but they are not that technically gifted. The likes of Milner, Wijnaldum, and Henderson are the best examples of that.

Every team needs that type of player because the sheer amount of dirty work they provide is exceptional. At the same time, you also have to rely on players who have the soccer brain and technical ability to dictate the tempo.

I think that Emre Can was doing something like that last season, so Klopp decided to sign Keita and Fabinho with the same idea in mind. The former is doing a good impression so far, but the latter is struggling to find a place in the team.

I believe that this will cost Liverpool points and, potentially, the title at the end of the day. You could easily see what I mean in the latest match of the team, the loss against Napoli.

It was a weird game because Klopp sent his best lineup out there, and at the same time, he obviously had in mind the clash with Manchester City.

The tactics deployed by the German suggest that the draw was the main goal, but Napoli was capable of creating a lot of chances. The side was pushing throughout the game, so the late winner brought a deserved victory.

It’s going to be interesting to see how this bad streak will affect the confidence of Liverpool’s team.

I think that most people don’t actually realize how important this game with City is.

A win or at least a draw combined with a good performance will lift Liverpool, so the shaky period should be over soon. However, a loss here might lead to a crisis that could leave the side struggling.

Manchester City

I am not exactly sure what to say about Manchester City. The club was untouchable last season, and the situation is similar so far.

This team is crushing everyone in the English Premier League, and only an unlucky draw is the reason the champions don’t have the maximum number of points available.

The attacking players of Manchester City look absolutely stunning, even without Kevin De Bruyne.

City has scored a whopping 21 goals and is more than capable of creating loads of chances. On top of that, Guardiola is lucky enough to have a bunch of talented players, so he can rotate often and keep everyone fresh and healthy.

If you add the solid display at the back, it’s hard to see how Manchester City will be dethroned. And yet, there is one thing that works against the club. If there is someone out there who’s got Guardiola’s number, it’s Jurgen Klopp.

The German and his boys ended City’s unbeaten streak in the English Premier League and dumped them from the Champions League last season.

The latter was especially painful for Guardiola, as he was desperate to win the trophy with Manchester City.

It’ll be interesting to see if Pep will find a way to beat the gegenpressing we will see once again. The relentless pressure from Liverpool was the main reason why the Reds were successful last year, and I expect more of the same this time around.

Prediction and Betting Pick

I think that the match will be very similar to what we saw last year. Manchester City will have more of the ball, but Liverpool will be deadly on the counter. The Reds will often press high up the pitch, forcing some errors that could open the door.

I don’t think that Pep Guardiola could prevent that, as this is the only weakness of his philosophy. I can’t see the Spaniard changing it, and I’m not sure if he needs to.

Honestly speaking, luck and some bad decisions by the referees played a role last season.

Manchester City will certainly have its moments in this match, and it will be about luck and efficiency. I think it’s an even game, so the fact that the odds for the reigning champions are a bit higher is enough for me to back them.

Going for the straight Manchester City win would be too adventurous, so I will go for the Asian handicap market. The visitors at 0 AH is offered by BetOnline, and the price is 1.98. This looks good to me, as a draw would return the initial stake.

If you’re looking for correct score prediction, I believe that 2-1 in favor of the champions is a likely scenario.

PICKManchester City 0 AH 1.97

Final Words

I have high expectations for this match, as both Manchester City and Liverpool are extremely exciting. The strategy of both managers is to attack and create a lot of chances, so this is not your usually tight game between top teams.

Or at least, I hope it’s not. What do you think about this match? Do you agree with me that it’s as close as it gets, or do you have a favorite? Let me know in the comments below.

Good luck!

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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