It is important to remember that this is only a Brownlow PREDICTOR. Yes, it is a useful tool. But it would help if you didn’t base your Brownlow Medal prediction solely on the projected votes.
Latest AFL Brownlow Medal Odds with Contender Analysis and Prediction (2022)
As we near the midway point of the 2022 AFL home-and-away season, it feels like the ideal time to weigh up the current AFL Brownlow odds.
With Round 11 right around the corner, Melbourne sits eight points clear atop the AFL ladder with a 100% record. Naturally, superstar Demons such as Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are among the top AFL Brownlow Medal contenders.
But if the latest 2022 AFL Brownlow odds are to be believed, Carlton’s Patrick Cripps and Brisbane’s Lachie Neale are well placed to claim the best and fairest award this year. Can they maintain their early-season form throughout the campaign?
Today, I will be analyzing all the leading contenders and profiling a handful of potential sleepers to keep an eye on. Before getting to my updated Brownlow prediction, we need to check out the latest odds.
Updated AFL Brownlow Odds for 2022
Most of the top Aussie Rules betting sites view Patrick Cripps (3.75) as the current Brownlow favorite. The 27-year-old has starred this season, helping Carlton pick up eight wins from their first ten matches.
According to the AFL Brownlow betting odds, Lachie Neale (4.25) is the second favorite. The Brisbane midfielder won the award in 2020 and has been one of the league’s most consistent players ever since.
Clayton Oliver (6.50) and Christian Petracca (7.00) are in the mix, too, having guided Melbourne to ten straight wins this year. Andrew Brayshaw (9.00) completes the top five after a stellar start to the season with Fremantle.
Is Clarry in Brownlow form? 😈 pic.twitter.com/0BV1DUfh5J— 7AFL (@7AFL) May 21, 2022
As we head into Round 11, Sam Walsh (13.00) and Callum Mills (17.00) remain in contention for the award. Touk Miller (26.00) and Bailey Smith (26.00) bridge the gap between the favorites and outsiders.
You may have noticed a couple of previous winners among the current top 20. Reigning Brownlow Medalist Ollie Wines (67.00) and 2016 winner Patrick Dangerfield (81.00) will surely be eager to upset the 2022 AFL Brownlow odds.
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Predicted Brownlow Medal Leaderboard Ahead of Round 11
Now that you’re up to speed on the latest AFL Brownlow odds, why not check out the AFL’s official “Brownlow Predictor”?
Thanks to the official AFL website, you can track the predicted Brownlow votes throughout the season. Of course, this is only a rough guide. But the tool can help when it comes to making your AFL Brownlow Medal pick for 2022.
This is how things stand ahead of Round 11.
|BROWNLOW PREDICTOR GOING INTO ROUND 11|
|Jack Steele||St Kilda||11|
|Bailey Smith||Western Bulldogs||10|
|Touk Miller||Gold Coast||9|
Interestingly, Oliver – the bookies’ third favorite – leads the AFL.com.au Brownlow predictor. Although Brayshaw is the bookies’ fifth favorite, he sits just behind Oliver and level with Cripps on 16 votes.
Neale and Petracca find themselves fourth and fifth, respectively, followed by Keays, Mills, and Steele. Smith and Miller round out the top ten.
Anyway, now that we’re up to speed on the Brownlow odds and predicted votes, it’s time to look at the current leading contenders for the award.
Top 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal Contenders
As per the current AFL Brownlow Medal odds, five players are priced below 10.00. I think we can class them as the favorites, right?
Although Cripps and Neale are the frontrunners as things stand, Oliver, Petracca, and Brayshaw will all fancy their chances of closing the gap between now and the end of the season. But who will win the 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal?
Patrick Cripps (3.75)
When I published my pre-season Brownlow Medal betting preview, Cripps was priced at 34.00 to win the award. Fifteen players were favored ahead of the Carlton midfielder, but a lot has changed since then.
“Crippa” has been immense this year, averaging 27.8 disposals, 17.3 handballs, 7.3 total clearances, and 5 tackles. In terms of the league, he ranks seventh for handballs and eighth for total clearances.
Thanks mainly to Cripps’ exploits, the Blues find themselves third on the ladder – level with second-place Brisbane on 32 points. Crucially, they are also 12 points inside the top eight. That means a first-finals appearance since 2013 is well and truly on the cards.
Let’s not forget that Cripps won the Leigh Matthews Trophy in 2019. He also picked up his third John Nicholls Medal that year and his second All-Australian call-up.
If he carries on the way he’s going, he could add the most prestigious individual honor of all to his collection.
Lachie Neale (4.25)
As we head into Round 11, Neale ranks third for total clearances, third for handballs, and fourth for disposals. That tells you everything you need to know about this guy’s ability.
The busy Brisbane midfielder averages 31.4 disposals per match in 2022, emphasizing his importance to the team. With Neale dominating the field, it is no coincidence that only one side sits above Brisbane on the ladder.
After finishing joint-third in the 2019 Brownlow standings, Neale won the 2020 award in record-breaking style – collecting an average of 1.82 votes per match. Granted, he struggled for consistency in 2021. But he is now back to his best.
Clayton Oliver (6.50)
If the Brownlow Predictor is to be believed, Oliver is in pole position to claim the award. But if the updated AFL Brownlow Medal betting odds are anything to go by, Oliver is the third favorite.
Either way, the 24-year-old is enjoying ANOTHER standout season.
Last year, Oliver secured his third Keith “Bluey” Truscott Medal in five seasons after guiding the Demons to premiership glory. This year, he has continued to cement his status as one of the top players in the league.
|MOST DISPOSALS (2022 AFL SEASON)|
|Jack Macrae||Western Bulldogs||318|
As the table above details, only one player – Essendon’s Darcy Parish – has racked up more disposals than Oliver in 2022. Consequently, Oliver’s pre-season Brownlow odds have dropped from 10.00 to 6.50.
Christian Petracca (7.00)
Like Oliver, Petracca is enjoying an excellent campaign with Melbourne. Not only does the versatile midfielder/forward rank fifth for disposals, but he also averages 16.6 kicks and 5 marks per match.
Having picked up the Norm Smith Medal for his efforts in Melbourne’s Grand Final thrashing of the Western Bulldogs, Petracca started the 2022 season as the fourth favorite to win the Brownlow Medal. He is still the fourth favorite, but his price has dropped from 9.00 to 7.00.
Petracca’s all-around game makes him a top AFL Brownlow Medal pick. His ability to get touches, kick goals, and do everything in between is pretty much unrivalled.
Andrew Brayshaw (9.00)
It’s fair to say that Fremantle has been the surprise package of 2022 up to now. Very few people expected the Dockers to challenge for silverware this season, but they find themselves fourth – eight points inside the top eight – ahead of Round 11.
Brayshaw has been the star of the show for Freo, making more tackles than any other player in the league. He also ranks sixth for disposals, highlighting his impact on the Dockers’ impressive campaign.
|MOST TACKLES (2022 AFL SEASON)|
|Matt Rowell||Gold Coast||64|
|Brad Crouch||St Kilda||62|
|Josh Dunkley||Western Bulldogs||60|
|Jack Steele||St Kilda||57|
At just 22, Brayshaw already has 86 career matches under his belt. He may seem too young to mount a serious challenge for the Brownlow Medal, but he is more than ready to compete for the prestigious prize.
Sleepers Who Could Beat the 2022 Brownlow Medal Odds
It is important to remember that the season is only ten rounds old. With most of the campaign ahead of us, so much can change between now and the final whistle.
For that reason, we need to analyze the potential sleepers who could upset the odds for the Brownlow Medal in 2022. Having scoured the Brownlow odds, I have picked up three outsiders who could claim the award.
Sam Walsh (13.00)
Only four players received more Brownlow votes than Walsh last season. The young gun enjoyed a phenomenal breakout campaign in 2021, showcasing his talents in an underperforming Carlton team.
However, the Blues have upped their game this year – and so has Walsh. The All-Australian averages 32 disposals, 18.2 handballs, 13.8 kicks, and 4.8 marks in 2022. You can’t ask for much more than that from your key midfielder.
Believe it or not, Walsh is still only 21. If he adds the Brownlow Medal to his Ron Evans and John Nicholls Medals, he could be one of the greatest AFL players of all time.
Bailey Smith (26.00)
At this moment in time, the Brownlow Predictor has Smith in ninth place. But with more than half of the season remaining, he has plenty of time to collect enough votes to challenge for the award.
The up-and-coming Bulldog averages a whopping 33 disposals per match this year, notching 19.8 kicks and 13.2 handballs. Better still, he averages 4.4 marks, 4 total clearances, and 3.9 tackles.
If AFL Fantasy is your thing, you will be interested to learn that Smith has picked up more points per match (118.4) than anyone else in 2022. Of course, AFL Fantasy points do not translate to Brownlow votes. But that gives you an idea of how Smith is performing.
Marcus Bontempelli (67.00)
Prior to the start of the season, Bontempelli was priced at 7.00 to clinch the 2022 Brownlow Medal. In fact, 2021 winner Ollie Wines was the only player favored ahead of Bontempelli to win the award.
Following a disappointing start to the campaign, Bontempelli’s 2022 AFL Brownlow odds currently stand at 67.00. Still, there is absolutely no denying that the four-time All-Australian has the ability to make up ground on the frontrunners.
Let’s not forget that Bontempelli secured the 2021 Leigh Matthews trophy. He was also the second-highest Brownlow vote-getter last year, finishing just three votes behind Wines.
Updated AFL Brownlow Medal Prediction for 2022
According to the latest Brownlow betting odds, Cripps (3.75) and Neale (4.25) are the current favorites to win the award. Granted, it is difficult to argue with the bookies’ viewpoint. But do the frontrunners offer the best value? I’m not so sure.
The defending premiers head into Round 11 with a 100% record, having won all ten of their matches this year. Oliver and Petracca are two of the biggest reasons Melbourne remains unbeaten in 2022.
Make sure you keep an eye on the potential sleepers, too. Many talented players can pick up plenty of Brownlow votes between now and the end of the season.
Finally, if you enjoy betting on the AFL, feel free to take advantage of my regular AFL predictions, betting tips, and picks. I share my predictions and picks for every round, so follow the link below to discover my latest tips.