La Liga Predictions and Betting Picks – July 11, 2020

By Ben Morris in Soccer
| July 10, 2020 3:29 am PDT

All six teams playing on Saturday have just three games remaining this season. The 2019/20 La Liga campaign has been one of twists and turns, and there is still plenty to be decided between now and the final day.

Here is the fixture list for July 11.

  • Osasuna vs. Celta Vigo
  • Valladolid vs. Barcelona
  • Atletico Madrid vs. Real Betis

Barcelona kept their title hopes alive with a narrow victory over Espanyol last time out, relegating their cross-city rival in the process. The defending champion faces a tough test against a resolute Valladolid team this weekend. Elsewhere, resurgent Osasuna welcomes Celta Vigo to Estadio El Sadar, while Betis visits Atletico.

You can find my predictions for all of Saturday’s games below, and I also share my best value La Liga betting picks for July 11.

Osasuna to Beat Celta Vigo

Osasuna’s chances of securing a top-half finish were dashed by an unexpected loss to Betis on Wednesday. Los Rojillos had taken ten points from a possible 12 before visiting Seville, but Betis ripped up the form book and inflicted a 3-0 defeat on Osasuna.

Still, Jagoba Arrasate can take confidence from the fact that his team continued to create plenty of goalscoring opportunities in their previous game. The Pamplona outfit may have seen their impressive four-game unbeaten run come to an end, but recent performances suggest that Osasuna should bounce back this weekend.

Celta Vigo recorded back-to-back 1-1 draws earlier in the week, although a draw with high-flying Atletico must be viewed as a great result at the moment. The Sky Blues have only lost two of their eight games since the restart, but four draws have prevented the club from mathematically securing their top-flight status for another year.

In fact, I think Celta will have to wait a bit longer to confirm their La Liga safety. The team has probably done enough to avoid relegation, but Osasuna should be too strong for Oscar’s side.

Barcelona to Beat Valladolid

Barcelona isn’t exactly looking like a title contender right now. The Catalan giant just about managed to keep the pressure on league-leader Real Madrid with an unconvincing 1-0 win over Espanyol last time out, but three draws in their last six outings have seen Barca fall by the wayside.

While the team’s recent performances have been questionable, there is no doubting Luis Suarez’s commitment to the cause. The Uruguayan forward has netted four goals in his previous four appearances, almost singlehandedly keeping his side in the title race. However, Barcelona still needs Real Madrid to slip up to stand any chance of defending their crown. Judging by Los Blancos’ form, that isn’t likely to happen.

Valladolid suffered just their second defeat since the resumption on Tuesday, going down 2-1 to Valencia at the Mestalla. The White and Violets have been in resilient form since the campaign got back underway, and any relegation fears lingering during the lay-off have swiftly vanished.

Needless to say, Valladolid will now be aiming to finish as high up the table as possible. Sergio Gonzalez’s men have favorable fixtures against Eibar and Betis still to come, but I think it will be difficult for them to avoid defeat against a desperate Barcelona team.

Atletico Madrid to Beat Real Betis

Despite being held to a somewhat surprising draw by Celta in midweek, I’m sure that Atletico Madrid will still be extremely happy with how things have gone since soccer returned. Earlier in the season, it looked like Diego Simeone’s side would miss out on a top-four spot. But an unstoppable 13-game unbeaten streak — which includes five wins since the restart — has propelled Atletico to third.

Unusually, the team’s defense hasn’t been at their best lately. But striker Alvaro Morata has kept Atletico ticking over at the other end of the pitch. The 27-year-old has bagged three goals in his last two games, all but guaranteeing his side a place in next season’s Champions League.

Real Betis sealed a rare win over Osasuna last time out, but that was only Los Verdiblancos’ second win in eight games since the resumption. Defeats to Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao, Levante, and Villarreal have left Betis stuck in the bottom half, and the team doesn’t really have anything left to play for in 2019/20.

It has recently been announced that former Real Madrid and Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini will take charge of Betis next season, meaning the club is likely to enjoy a better campaign next term. However, Betis has been below par this year, so I’m expecting Atletico to claim all three points fairly comfortably on Saturday.

La Liga Picks for Saturday, July 11

Now that my predictions are out of the way, it’s time to check out my La Liga betting picks for Saturday’s action.

Osasuna vs. Celta Vigo – Over 2.5 Goals (2.25)

The bookies clearly don’t think this will be a high-scoring matchup, but I’m not sure I agree with their viewpoint. Osasuna has been in good form since the restart, but heavy defeats to Atletico (5-0) and Betis (3-0) prove the team is susceptible to conceding goals.

Meanwhile, Celta hammered Alaves 6-0 before losing 5-1 to Mallorca. The Sky Blues have been wildly unpredictable in recent weeks, meaning they could easily score and concede on Saturday. The both teams to score market only offers odds of 1.80, so going with over 2.5 goals makes more sense.

Valladolid vs. Barcelona – Barcelona to Win and Under 3.5 Goals (2.00)

Not only do odds of 1.30 for the away win suggest that Barcelona should win this game, but the bookies have priced the Valladolid win at 9.00! Backing Barca to win isn’t the worst bet in the world, but I think we can do better than that.

Quique Setien’s side has been far from convincing lately and only just managed to scrape a 1-0 victory over bottom club Espanyol in midweek. Considering that each of Valladolid’s eight games since the restart have produced under 3.5 goals, I think Barcelona will record a low-scoring win at Estadio Jose Zorrilla.

To make sure you get the best odds, I highly recommend checking out the top-rated online soccer betting sites.

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