June Betting Update for the 2021 AFL – Latest Premiership Odds, Brownlow Predictions, and More
We may have only just passed the halfway point, but the 2021 AFL season has already dished up plenty of drama.
I mean, who expected Melbourne to be atop the ladder after 13 matches? Did you really believe that Collingwood would be struggling near the bottom? And who could have predicted Richmond’s slump?
Naturally, the bookmakers’ AFL odds have changed drastically since the start of the year. I thought it would be a good idea to take an up-to-date look at all the main AFL betting markets and see if we can find some value in the latest prices.
In this post, I cover the minor premiership, premiership, Brownlow Medal, and Coleman Medal markets before sharing my AFL predictions for the remainder of the season.
If that sounds good to you – keep reading!
Who Will Win the AFL Minor Premiership in 2021?
Let’s start by checking out the latest 2021 AFL minor premiership odds.
Holding a four-point lead at the summit, Melbourne is the bookmakers’ current favorite to clinch the minor premiership.
Sitting just behind the Demons, both the Bulldogs and Cats are expected to push the present frontrunners all the way.
The minor premiership odds for 2021 then take a big leap to Brisbane and Port Adelaide, with both sides trailing Melbourne by eight points.
At things stand, West Coast, Sydney, and Richmond would have to produce a remarkable winning streak to be crowned minor premiers.
This is what the current AFL ladder looks like.
|2021 AFL LADDER AFTER 13 MATCHES|
Let’s take a closer look at the 2021 AFL minor premiership favorites.
Can Melbourne Hold On?
Only four teams have secured more minor premierships than Melbourne in AFL history. But with their most recent triumph coming all the way back in 1964, the Demons haven’t tasted success for over half a century.
Still, Simon Goodwin’s men are doing their best to break the club’s curse.
Despite suffering just their second defeat of the season to a weak Collingwood side last time out, the Demons have played some eye-catching footy this year.
Perhaps most importantly, Melbourne has already claimed the scalps of some huge minor premiership rivals in 2021. Having gotten the better of the Bulldogs, Geelong, Richmond, Sydney, and Brisbane, Goodwin’s team is in pole position.
Could the Dogs or Geelong Overtake the Dees?
The Doggies kicked off the campaign with six straight wins but have since lost three of their previous seven outings. Funnily enough, their most recent defeat came at the hands of Geelong.
By contrast, the Cats lost three of their opening seven matches before stringing together a six-game winning streak. Chris Scott’s men have gathered some serious momentum in recent weeks.
Not only do the Dogs have the best offensive record in the league (1263), but they also boast the second-tightest defense (873). If they remain strong at both ends of the field, they could chase down the Deemons.
Brisbane and Port Have Their Work Cut Out
It’s safe to say that Brisbane is still paying the price for a poor start to the season. The Lions lost three of their first four games, although they have only suffered one defeat in their last nine encounters.
There is no denying that Brisbane missed the influence of Lachie Neale earlier in the campaign. The 2020 Brownlow Medalist missed a series of matches through injury but has recently returned to give his side a noticeable boost.
Meanwhile, the reigning minor premiers have struggled for consistency throughout 2021. Having lost three of their previous seven games, Port could struggle to defend their crown.
Latest 2021 AFL Premiership Odds and Analysis
Okay – enough about the minor premiership. Here are the latest odds for the 2021 AFL Grand Final winner.
As you can see, the Aussie rules betting sites view Geelong and Melbourne as joint frontrunners to secure the AFL premiership in 2021.
Brisbane, Richmond, and the Bulldogs are all priced at 6.00 to win the Grand Final, leaving Port Adelaide and West Coast just outside the group of 2021 AFL premiership favorites.
Although the bookies have included every team that still has a mathematical chance of sealing a top-eight finish, it makes sense to only analyze the realistic contenders here.
Does History Give Geelong the Edge Over Melbourne?
After finishing as runners-up last season, the Cats know what it takes to reach the Grand Final. Plus, Geelong has made it to four finals in the past 13 years – lifting the trophy in 2009 and 2011.
By contrast, the Demons’ last Grand Final appearance came back in 2000, while their last premiership triumph was in 1964.
Of course, Goodwin’s men have proved they can compete with the strongest teams in the league this season. But when it comes to going all the way, the Cats’ know-how arguably gives them the upper hand.
Never Write Off the Tigers
Only three things are certain in life: death, taxes, and Richmond stepping up to the plate in the AFL finals series.
By their own high standards, the Tigers are enduring a below-par season. Still, they remain inside the top eight and have managed to pick up three wins in their last five matches.
The Tigers have won three of the past four Grand Finals (2017, 2019, 2020). However, they finished third on the ladder in each of their premiership-winning campaigns. They rarely end the regular season at the summit, yet they invariably rise to the challenge of knockout footy.
With veteran Jack Riewoldt kicking goals for fun and young gun Shai Bolton enhancing his growing reputation every week, Richmond looks a good bet for the premiership at 6.00.
|RICHMOND’S RECENT AFL DOMINANCE|
What About the Other Contenders?
Geelong, Melbourne, and Richmond aside, the Dogs and the Lions are the other leading candidates to win the Grand Final this year.
The Doggies secured the premiership in 2016 but have failed to finish higher than seventh since then. That said, Luke Beveridge’s men have looked unbeatable at times this season, with guys like Marcus Bontempelli (more on him in a minute), Jack Macrae, and Josh Bruce starring.
Brisbane reached four straight Grand Finals between 2001 and 2004, winning the first three. However, Queenslanders haven’t had an awful lot to celebrate for the best part of two decades.
If Neale can stay fit and key performers such as Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, and Jarryd Lyons continue to shine, the Lions could end their drought this year.
Who Will Scoop the 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal?
It’s time to check out the 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal odds and assess the bookies’ current favorites for the award.
As the odds for the 2021 Brownlow Medal suggest, the race to be crowned the AFL’s best and fairest player is wide open.
Let’s take a closer look at the Brownlow favorites for 2021.
Marcus Bontempelli (3.50)
According to the official AFL website, Marcus Bontempelli has accumulated more rating points than any other player this season. The gun Bulldog finds himself 10.3 points ahead of Dustin Martin and 26.7 points clear of third-place Max Gawn.
The Bont has been everywhere for the Dogs this year – kicking important goals, making countless tackles, while captaining his side to ten wins in 13 matches.
Having kept a keen eye on Bontempelli’s performances in 2021, I’m not surprised to see him at the top of the bookies’ Brownlow Medal odds list.
Clayton Oliver (5.00)
It is no exaggeration to say that Calyton Oliver is operating on a completely different level to the majority of his rivals at the moment.
The 23-year-old sits atop the contested possessions charts, having racked up 22 CPs more than his nearest challenger – Rory Laird. On top of that, he has also notched the fifth-most disposals in the league.
With the Demons eyeing their first minor premiership in almost 60 years, Oliver’s match-winning displays will continue to be noticed.
Christian Petracca (7.00)
Alongside Oliver, Christian Petracca has been immense for Melbourne this season. As well as booting 14 goals from midfield, the 25-year-old has chalked up the most kicks for his side and also sits second on the Dees’ disposals leaderboard.
Petracca’s all-round game makes him one of the top 2021 Brownlow contenders. If the Demons continue to win games of footy, expect Petracca to be right at the heart of the action.
Ollie Wines (7.50)
Sitting third and fifth in the league’s disposals and contested possessions charts, respectively, Ollie Wines has almost singlehandedly kept Port Adelaide’s top-eight dreams alive at times this year.
The Port star has continuously outshone teammates like Travis Boak and Charlie Dixon this season, underlining his unrivalled consistency.
Analysis and Odds for the AFL Coleman Medal in 2021
Here are the current 2021 AFL Coleman Medal odds.
Having booted 41 goals in 2021, Harry McKay is the bookmakers’ clear frontrunner to finish as the AFL’s top goalkicker this year.
With 34 goals to his name, Jack Riewoldt is the second favorite here, while Taylor Walker – who has 37 goals under his belt – completes the top three.
Let’s take a quick look at the present goalkicking leaderboard.
|CURRENT COLEMAN MEDAL LEADERBOARD|
|Josh Bruce||Western Bulldogs||37|
|Ben King||Gold Coast||34|
Josh Bruce’s price of 13.00 seems extremely generous, especially when you consider that only McKay has kicked more goals than Bruce this season.
It feels as though Tom Hawkins (17.00) and Ben King (21.00) are a bit too far behind to make a charge for the Coleman Medal.
I analyze the frontrunners below.
Harry McKay (2.38)
The only man averaging over three goals per game this season, McKay is in the form of his life right now. The Blues may be languishing towards the bottom end of the AFL ladder, but Big H hasn’t let his team’s iffy form impact his individual displays.
It is worth noting, however, that Carlton looks set to miss out on a top-eight finish. Will the Blues’ seemingly inevitable shortcomings see McKay miss out on the Coleman Medal?
Jack Riewoldt (8.00)
Just like McKay, Riewoldt is standing out in an underperforming team this year. Averaging 2.6 goals per game, the Richmond forward has showed everyone exactly what he is capable of in 2021.
Prior to the start of the campaign, Tom Lynch was the oddsmakers’ favorite to finish as the league’s top goalkicker this year. But Riewoldt has outshone his teammate and given himself a genuine chance of scooping the prize.
Let’s not forget that Riewoldt already has three Coleman Medals in his silverware cabinet (2010, 2012, 2018).
Taylor Walker (8.00)
Although Taylor Walker has played one game fewer than both McKay and Riewoldt, the Adelaide key forward has still managed to rack up 37 goals this season – three more than Riewoldt and only four less than McKay.
If the Crows can rediscover their early-season form and book a spot in the finals series, Walker will almost certainly close the gap on McKay.
My 2021 AFL Predictions
Right – I am going to wrap things up with my AFL predictions for the remainder of the 2021 season.
Minor Premiership – Melbourne
The Demons have come from nowhere this year and suddenly find themselves leading the race for the minor premiership. If their recent results are anything to go by, they could easily finish atop the ladder.
Ultimately, you cannot ignore Melbourne’s record against the top teams in the AFL this season. The Dees could have slipped up against the likes of Geelong, Richmond, Brisbane, and the Dogs, yet they managed to dispatch all their title rivals.
For that reason, Melbourne is my pick for the 2021 AFL minor premiership.
Premiership – Geelong
It feels like Geelong is growing into the season, and when it comes to hitting the ground running in the finals series, momentum is key.
After winning four of their opening seven matches in 2021, the Cats are currently enjoying a six-game winning streak. Having seen off Richmond, Port, and the Bulldogs in that time, they will be brimming with belief.
With tons of experience in the team, Geelong is my AFL premiership pick for 2021.
Brownlow Medal – Clayton Oliver
While it would not be a shock if Bontempelli clinched the Brownlow Medal, I think Oliver’s price of 5.00 offers far better value. After all, the Melbourne superstar has been his side’s best player this season and has arguably improved as the season has progressed.
With the Dees on course to be named minor premiers, it makes sense that I back Oliver to win the 2021 Brownlow Medal.
Coleman Medal – Jack Riewoldt
At the end of the day, Riewoldt knows exactly what is takes to win the Coleman Medal. The experienced Tiger has finished as the AFL’s top goalkicker in three of the past 11 seasons and seems to have rediscovered his best form this year.
Yes, Riewoldt trails McKay by seven goals at the moment. But McKay’s odds of 2.38 is too low to bother with. Instead, I’m backing Riewoldt at the tasty price of 8.00.
That concludes my 2021 AFL betting update. If you like betting on individual matches and want some more AFL predictions, make sure you head over to our Aussie rules picks section.