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Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo Preview and Pick – Is Eye Too Strong for Calvillo?

| June 9, 2020 4:43 am PDT
Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo Preview and Pick

Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo headlines UFC Fight Night this Saturday, June 13. A real pick’em, this bout will take place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas behind closed doors on what should be another exciting night of fights.

Former flyweight title contender Eye welcomes strawweight contender Calvillo to the women’s 125-pound weight class, in search of another win. And while I can understand how some fans are a little underwhelmed by this headliner, it should be a good fight.

The latest Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo odds found on the top UFC betting sites suggest that it will be very close. These two are among the toughest ladies on the UFC roster, with just one KO loss between them from a combined 33 fights. And that loss was Eye’s head kick defeat to the incredible Valentina Shevchenko.

Eye is ranked as the number-one contender at 125-pounds. Needless to say, she could find herself back in the title mix with a win over Calvillo this Saturday. A tough volume striker, Eye has certainly looked the part since moving up to 125 pounds.

But can the dangerous Calvillo make her flyweight debut one to remember, at the expense of her opponent?

Here’s my pick for the fight. Check it out before I take a look at the latest Eye vs. Calvillo odds, the best bets for the fight, and close with my thoughts on who wins. 

Eye vs. Calvillo – Who Wins This Fight?

  • Jessica Eye by Unanimous Decision

Eye is the better striker — Calvillo holds the advantage in grappling. Either way, I’m expecting a close fight that might come down to a couple of basic factors.

I have some detailed thoughts on this fight below that you might find interesting. I’ll explain my rationale for picking Eye over Calvillo once I have shared the latest odds and best bets for the fight.

So, what do you make of the odds below?

Latest Eye vs. Calvillo Odds

Jessica Eye to Win-120
Cynthia Calvillo to Win-110

Eye heads into this fight as the slight betting favorite over Calvillo. This one should be as tight as those odds suggest.

Eye has opened as an underdog in every single fight she has had since her fight with Bethe Correia at bantamweight in September 2016. Not surprising, given the caliber of some of the opponents she has faced since then.

But out of a stellar cast featuring Kalindra Faria, Jessica-Rose Clark, Katlyn Chookagian, Valentina Shevchenko, and Viviane Araújo, Eye has only lost to Shevchenko. Four wins from five with the only loss to the second-best female mixed martial artist on the planet is not a bad return at all. 

As for Calvillo, this is the first time in eight UFC fights that she has not opened as the bookies’ favorite. Her career loss to date came against former strawweight champion Carla Esparza in December 2017, and the flyweight debutant will be hoping that is still the case at the end of this five rounder on Saturday night.

So, Eye or Calvillo — who are you backing for this fight?  Check out my best Eye vs. Calvillo bets and see if anything catches your, um, eye.

Best Bets for Eye vs. Calvillo

The Eye vs. Calvillo props and specials have not been released at the time of writing, so I cannot give you the odds for most of the bets below. That said, you should get some decent odds for any props given the moneyline is so close.

I would suggest checking out our recommended UFC betting sites regularly to see if the odds have been posted yet. Anyway, let’s look at four bets you should consider for this fight and why.

Jessica Eye to Win

As simple as it sounds. A bet on Eye to win, regardless of the method. So, whether she wins on the judges’ scorecards, by KO/TKO, or by submission, you will win your bet.

The odds on Eye beating Calvillo are -120, which are decent odds for a fighter that has a few advantages over her opponent — most notably striking and experience of fighting at 125 pounds. 

Jessica Eye to Win by Decision

This is a five-round fight, and with that brings the usual questions surrounding the cardio, durability, and experience of both fighters.

Eye and Calvillo have plenty of experience going the distance, but eleven of Eye’s fifteen wins — as well as five of her seven losses — have come by way of decision. I believe she has a better gas tank than her opponent, and at 33, is just one year older. 

Will this count in this fight? I think it just might. Toughness, the ability to control the pace, and familiarity of being in deep waters might help Eye on the judges’ scorecards.

Jessica Eye to Win by KO/TKO

As much as I can see Eye dragging Calvillo to the judges’ scorecards, betting on her scoring a TKO win is not the worst idea in the world.

She has been on fire at bantamweight, beating some of the toughest ladies in the weight class. Sure, she hasn’t earned a stoppage victory since beating Leslie Smith back in 2014, but I wouldn’t completely write off her chances of changing this on the night.

There are a few factors that support anyone’s argument of Eye winning by stoppage. For example, Eye is the heavier fighter with advantages in height and reach. Combine these with the smaller Octagon size and Calvillo’s inexperience at this weight, and there are plenty of questions to be asked.

Cynthia Calvillo to Win by Submission

Calvillo’s submission game is no joke.

Since hooking up with the UFC in March 2017, she has earned three submissions from seven wins. She landed back-to-back rear-naked chokes over Amanda Cooper and Pearl Gonzalez in her first two fights and also put away Poliana Botelho in the same fashion in December 2017.

I’m not sure that she will have the strength to take Eye down at will, but if things go her way on the ground, Eye could be in trouble. 

Eye’s first and only submission loss to date came against Ireland’s Aisling Daly back in 2011.

Why Eye Beats Calvillo

First off, Eye vs. Calvillo is a great matchup, regardless of the lukewarm reception it got when it was announced. But I think the former has the advantages heading into this bout.

And if I am right about that, then the moneyline odds for Eye to beat Calvillo could be well worth taking. That said, I would not deter anyone from having a punt on Eye to win by decision or KO/TKO.

My thinking is this — Eye is proven at flyweight, while Calvillo is effectively making her debut in a senior weight class against the best-ranked fighter not named Valentina Shevchenko. That is a big ask.

The tale of the tape shows us that Eye stands at 5’6″ with a 66″ reach. She holds a two-inch advantage over Calvillo in both the height and reach departments, who comes in at 5’4″ and 64″.

I believe the fight will mostly be competed on the feet, which gives the edge to Eye. Providing Eye can hold Calvillo off and improve on that 50% takedown defense, she should have the right platform to pick off rounds.

Calvillo’s major strength is her grappling, but just how much she can use this to her advantage against Eye remains to be seen. She is not the most attractive striker and can look a little lost when things don’t go her way. And if Carla Esparza could outshoot her on the feet, Eye has every reason to feel confident in this matchup.

Eye’s Striking Gives Her the Edge

Quick hands and lots of volume — that pretty much sums up Jessica Eye’s striking prowess. It might sound simple, but it is definitely effective.

A smart boxer with good combinations, Eye has overwhelmed some quality opponents over the past few years. Wins over Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo were particularly impressive.

So, while this one is a clash between a striker and a grappler, I see Eye’s striking dominating the fight.

Sure, the smaller Octagon size might make it slightly easier for Calvillo to get within takedown range, but she is going to have to eat more shots on her way in, too. And I’m not sure she has the power or feints/setups capable of troubling Eye when it comes to exchanging shots.

Calvillo might be in for a very long night on the outside unless she can find a way to take Eye down and work her on the ground. But doing so will be easier said than done — Eye’s general wrestling prowess is not bad at all, and she is stronger than anyone Calvillo has fought before.

To sum it all up, Eye’s striking, size, and strength should take her to a decision win. I wouldn’t be majorly shocked if she lands a KO/TKO win in the later rounds, but I’ll take her by unanimous decision.

Will Eye Beat Calvillo?

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo is coming up this Saturday, June 13. If it’s even half as exciting as UFC 250 was, we’re in for another treat.

Having covered the odds and best bets for Eye vs. Calvillo above, I will be turning my attention to other fights on the card. Make sure to check out our UFC betting blog for more on the event, including predictions for the all winners on the night and the best bets currently doing the rounds.

So, will Eye beat Calvillo or vice versa? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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