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How America Is Betting on Super Bowl 54

| January 31, 2020 2:49 am PDT
How is America Betting on Super Bowl 54?

Super Bowl 54 is dressed to impress. On one side is Patrick Mahomes and the potent Kansas City Chiefs. Richard Sherman and a hard-hitting, stingy San Francisco 49ers defense await on the other.

There are narratives galore. Mahomes can finally take his crown as the game’s best quarterback. Kyle Shanahan has a chance to restore glory to a once-proud 49ers franchise.

And this could finally be the year Andy Reid gets that elusive ring.

The hype, talent, anticipation, and matchup in general give way to a virtual pick’em (1-point spread) and a game that has drawn the most betting action in history.

That isn’t betting hyperbole, either.

There are literally over 26 million people betting on Super Bowl 54, and the number is growing. It’s already a record, and with sports betting becoming legalized (slowly, but surely) across the United States, the sky’s the limit.

It’s easy to see the volume, but people are still wondering precisely how to bet on the 2020 Super Bowl. To try to gauge that, bettors should first see how the public is betting on Super Bowl 2020.

Public Betting on the 2020 Super Bowl Point Spread

The Kansas City Chiefs enter Super Bowl 54 as the tentative favorite with a -1 point spread at just about all of the top NFL betting sites.

That’s fairly understandable, seeing as Patrick Mahomes and co. have looked impossible to keep down throughout their playoff run.

Unsurprisingly, the betting public has fallen in love with the Chiefs and this 1-point advantage, with 60% of the bets coming in Kansas City’s favor and 56% of the money going toward the Chiefs.

Given the tiny point spread, this tells us the majority of the betting public thinks the Chiefs are winning this game. Time can change things, but early indications are that the regular people placing bets believe this game will swing KC’s way.

Looking at this from a higher level, there’s some serious action on this point spread. A bettor dropped a massive $550,000 wager on the Chiefs at -1 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas.

That currently slides in as one of the 10 biggest Super Bowl bets for this year and shows the confidence of at least one daring bettor.

There were other high-profile wagers on this point spread, of course.

Using that top-10 list, we can quickly see a $684,000 bet on the 49ers and their +2 point spread at the DraftKings Sportsbook, while another Chiefs bet went for $120,000 at the CG Technology book in Vegas.

Everything is fluid until it’s not, though. That $550k wager tossed on the Chiefs at -1? That was so impactful that MGM had to move the lines.

Naturally, you’ll want to keep an eye out for other sportsbooks doing something similar and also stay on top of how the betting public addresses any other line movement.

Public Betting on the Super Bowl 2020 Moneyline

It’s often a lot simpler to just work with a moneyline, assuming it’s not egregiously out of control.

Luckily, that isn’t the case for Super Bowl 54. The tentative pick’em nature of this matchup has things fairly copacetic with the Niners being mild +100 underdogs and KC operating as -120 favorites.

Despite the tight pricing, the early numbers have favored the Chiefs. That hasn’t stopped some massive bets being placed, though.

The famous “Mattress Mack” is back again, and he dropped a ridiculous $1 million dollar wager on the 49ers to win.

I mean, I’m right there with him and believe the 49ers will win Super Bowl 54, but I don’t have a million smackeroos to lay on this thing. Nor would I, regardless.

Still, the mattress lord pulled another publicity stunt, and this time, it ranks as the priciest wager for Super Bowl 2020 so far. Given the way things have escalated, though, it wouldn’t be all that shocking for someone to trump it.

When looking at Super Bowl 54 moneyline betting, that wager easily leads the way. The second-biggest moneyline bet is also on the Niners ($187,000), while there are also moneyline wagers of $150k (Chiefs), $120k (49ers), and $115k (Chiefs again).

From a high level, San Francisco is dominating the moneyline game based off of one absurd bet. That could end up forcing the top sportsbooks to alter this line, while the floodgates could open for more crazy betting action.

If you drop down to an overall level, most of the action is still on the 49ers when it comes to the moneyline. The overall numbers favor KC, but per the DraftKings Sportsbook, over 55% of the money right now is leaning toward San Francisco’s moneyline.

Of course, there is conflict as to which numbers to trust. Action Network and other wager tracking sites have Kansas City (53%) in the lead when it comes to the moneyline.

Public Betting on the 2020 Super Bowl Total

The other way to bet on the Super Bowl — besides attacking some of the weirdest Super Bowl prop bets out there — is to lay some cash on the game total.

The 2020 Super Bowl does not have a low total, as it comes in with an ever-so-fitting 54 at most NFL betting websites (it’s actually risen to 54.5 for many). That makes some sense, as San Francisco actually ranked second in scoring on the year, and we know the Chiefs can rack up points.

Of course, we can’t be sure if it’ll be Kansas City that runs this game, or the Niners’ elite defense.

So far, the betting public emphatically insists it’ll be more towards the Chiefs. Despite the gaudy total, an insane 85% of the money favors the Over.

Aiding the logic with that wager is the fact that both teams had their games hit the Over in over 52% of their games this season. Oh, and one of the 10 biggest Super Bowl 54 wagers was a cool $110,000 on the Over.

That was back when this game had a 52.5 total, which now seems disturbingly low.

The moral of the story here? Bettors anticipate a whole lot of scoring during Super Bowl 54. You just need to decide whether they’re right or wrong.

Summary

It is very interesting to note a couple of things as we await the arrival of Super Bowl 54.

The flat-out amount of betting action for this game is striking. Nay, it’s historic.

It’s also pretty wild just how confident bettors collectively seem to be that the Chiefs are winning this game. Betting on the spread and moneyline is basically interchangeable (although the moneyline is the vastly better wager for Niners bettors), yet the current percentages tell us that the money and bets favor Kansas City.

As I said, though, it depends where you’re getting your numbers from, and there is also still time for things to lean one way or the other.

So, what do you do with that as a bettor? Possibly nothing. It’s just worth noting what bettors are putting money on and how much of the betting public is leaning one way.

I mean, they don’t say “fade the public” for nothing, right?

Of course, this is all tentative. These insane bets I’ve touched on could end up swaying things, especially since more wagers are sure to trickle in as the 2020 Super Bowl draws near.

Just keep your head on a swivel and factor in as much as possible — while also considering some of the very best Super Bowl 54 bets — before finalizing your wagers.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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