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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Can Deshaun Watson Keep Up With Patrick Mahomes?
It shouldn’t take much to get excited for a Deshaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes postseason matchup. Watching the Texans battle the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round should get anyone hyped up.
Bill O’Brien and the Texans went into Arrowhead Stadium and knocked off the Chiefs back in Week 6, so there’s no question that Houston has confidence that they can get the job done on Sunday. On the other hand, Kansas City has won six in a row and enters this weekend’s tilt playing their best football of the season.
Noah Davis took a long look at the Vikings vs. 49ers game in great detail, and now he has joined me to generate a Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview. The goal is to figure out where the true betting value lies.
Texans vs. Chiefs Odds
Vegas opened the line for the Houston vs. Kansas City game with the Chiefs favored by 9. But after scoping out the best NFL betting sites, I saw that the odds have risen to KC -9.5. In fact, the bookies at BetNow.eu have bumped the home team to -10, and who knows where the price will be by the time Sunday morning arrives?
Noah and I are going to showcase our Texans vs. Chiefs predictions for who will win, along with our best bets of the game. But first, take a moment first to glance at the data below.
Useful Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Data
Gaining an edge betting NFL games online isn’t as easy as simply following a set formula. There are a lot of i’s to dot and t’s to cross if you want to be completely diligent in your process. To save you some time, I’ve gathered the following against the spread (ATS) figures for you to have at your disposal.
- Chiefs are 13-3 on the year
- Chiefs are 5-3 at home
- Chiefs are 10-5-1 ATS
- Chiefs are 8-4-1 as favorite ATS
- Chiefs are 4-3-1 at home ATS
- Chiefs are 3-2-1 at home as favorite ATS
- Chiefs are 9-3 against AFC
- Chiefs are 8-3-1 ATS against AFC
- Chiefs are 6-4 against non-AFC West teams
- Chiefs are 5-5 ATS against non-AFC West teams
- Over is 8-8 in Chiefs games
- Over is 7-10 in Texans games
- Texans are 11-6 on the year
- Texans are 5-3 on the road
- Texans are 8-8-1 ATS
- Texans are 6-3 as underdog ATS
- Texans are 4-2-1 on the road ATS
- Texans are 4-2 on the road as underdog ATS
- Texans are 9-4 against AFC
- Texans are 6-7 ATS against AFC
- Texans are 7-4 against non-AFC South teams
- Texans are 6-4-1 ATS against non-AFC South teams
- Texans won last meeting (2019 Week 6), 31-24
- Chiefs lead all-time series, 6-5
- Chiefs beat the Colts in last year’s Divisional Round, 31-13
- Texans franchise is winless (0-3) in the Divisional Round
- Andy Reid is 2-5 in the Playoffs as the Chiefs head coach
- Bill O’Brien is 2-3 in the Playoffs as the Texans head coach
First things first, Kansas City’s 10-5-1 mark ATS is tops in the NFL. Likewise, their 8-4-1 mark ATS as the favorite ranks first in the league. Perhaps what is keeping a wager on the Chiefs from being a green-light special is the fact that investing in Houston when they’re an underdog has been a fairly profitable situation.
There’s nothing substantial we can glean about the total, although it’s worth noting that the over has cashed just once in the Chiefs’ last six games.
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Who Will Win?
I’m not going to pretend like there’s tons of value associated with backing Kansas City at -425, but I do feel confident that Andy Reid will be moving on to the AFC Championship game. Looking back at the box score the last time these teams met, it’s easy to scratch your head and wonder how Houston pulled off the upset. Deshaun Watson threw two picks, and Tyreek Hill scored two touchdowns, yet the Texans somehow found a way to upend the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Well, now it’s time for Patrick Mahomes and company to return the favor.
I can rave about Mahomes’ arm talent for days and extoll him for being the most skilled quarterback I’ve ever laid eyes on. I could argue that Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the league or that Tyreek Hill is the most potent deep threat in football. Instead, I’d like to point out that KC’s defense has surrendered just 10.4 points per game over their last five contests. The Chiefs ended the year ranked in the top 5 in interceptions and 11th in sacks, plus they’ve had a full week to rest. While Houston was busy mounting an all-world comeback against the Bills, Andy Reid and his men were getting mentally prepared for their upcoming task.
Start putting two and two together, and I sense the Texans season will come to an abrupt end on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs to Win-425
Noah Davis’ Pick
I’m still not a believer that Kansas City’s defense is suddenly elite (their opponents during that great five-game run were the Chargers, Bears, Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders), but Michael makes a fair point.
The theme is an improved defense that won’t automatically get creamed. Bettors also need to note that Patrick Mahomes wasn’t quite himself in the earlier meeting with Houston, while Damien Williams wasn’t utilized like he will be in this rematch.
All of that said, the Chiefs have the home field edge, and Andy Reid teams are an insane 22-3 coming off of a bye week. There isn’t any value in backing the Chiefs, but a weak return on your bet is better than no return at all.
Kansas City Chiefs to Win-425
Best Bet for Texans vs. Chiefs
Laying 9.5 points might seem like a lot on paper, but I’m going to try and strike while I know the iron is hot. Not only have the Chiefs won their last six games in succession, but they’ve covered the spread in each of those occasions.
Is Kansas City performing above expectations? Are the oddsmakers not respecting the Chiefs enough?
Either way, Clark Hunt’s organization has been very good to me as of late, so I see no reason to not go right back to the well.
Houston expended a whole bunch of energy last weekend storming back against Buffalo, and Deshaun Watson could be missing one of his key components in the passing game. Will Fuller might end up giving it a go, but there’s no way his groin is fully healed, nor can we expect him to anywhere near as explosive as he typically would be.
I pegged the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, and I’m really excited about where the team is currently at. Look for them to march past the Texans in the Divisional Round and be one game closer to advancing to Miami.
Noah Davis’ Top Bet
I love KC to win here, but the Texans did beat them once before and showed again last week that they don’t have much quit in them. Houston very nearly won in New Orleans in week one, they took out the Patriots, and they scored 22 second-half points last week to keep their season alive.
They don’t back down from any challenge, and they have the dynamic offense to at least hang tight in virtually any setting.
Deshaun Watson is the number one reason to like the Texans to keep this game competitive, while the return of J.J. Watt at least sparks Houston’s defense to some degree.
That could lead you to aim high for the upset or bet on the Texans to beat the spread (6-3 ATS as underdogs isn’t nothing), but the real hit for me is the Over.
I know 51 points is not a small mountain to climb, but these two literally hit that mark (55) the last time they faced off, and I firmly believe they’ll do it again.
Texans vs. Chiefs Over 51-110
Even though I like the Chiefs to win this game comfortably, Noah is spot on about the Texans not being the type of team that likes to go down without putting up a fight. Are you in the camp who believes Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to coast to a victory? Or do you think this will be a closely contested battle that will go down to the wire?
We can offer insight. However, picking a side when you bet the Houston vs. Kansas City game is ultimately up to you.
You can read about our thoughts in the other AFC Divisional Round matchup by checking out this Titans vs. Ravens preview, and we’ll release a Seahawks vs. Packers predictions post shortly.