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Highest Win Totals in College Football for 2021

By Dan Vasta in College Football
| July 3, 2021 6:29 am PDT
Highest College Football Win Totals

You know the 2021 NCAA football season is getting closer when win totals surface across the top college football betting sites. The juices are flowing, and it is time to start debating what the experts in the desert have to say.

The best teams are often picked accurately by the prognosticators, but there will always be incorrect picks based on injuries and pure luck. The football is the shape of a prolate spheroid, so weird things will happen when it bounces.

Plus, that is what makes the sport so entertaining.

The unpredictability is always a key component that factors into the bonkers fall weekends we witness. Right when you think a team cannot be beaten and looks as if they are going to drop a 50-burger, they get upset and have their entire season ruined on a fall Saturday.

The teams below are mostly the premiere contenders going into the 2021 college football season, but there are a few that may surprise you.

The win totals are based solely on the regular season totals only. Every team in America in a normal season will play 11-13 regular-season games.

Without further ado, here are the highest 2021 college football win totals for the regular season via the best college football betting sites, along with my picks.

Alabama Crimson Tide Win Total – 11.5

  • Over 11.5 wins (-105)
  • Under 11.5 wins (-125)

This is now a third straight season (excluding last season due to shortened season) that the Crimson Tide win total is at 11.5, leaving any room for an upset.

Nick Saban has an over, under, and a push in those three totals at 11.5 wins. Alabama has both the over and under currently set at -113, which would be worse value than in their last few seasons.

Alabama has been favored in 80 straight games and 152 of its last 153 meetings. Yes, you read that correctly. Alabama is never an underdog – well, rarely. It truly is a spectacle to witness all these games they have been favored in.

The last time we saw Nick Saban’s Tide as an underdog was in 2015 on the road against Georgia. The Tide cruised to a 38-10 victory as a one-point underdog that day.

The prior game they were an underdog to that matchup was in the 2009 SEC Championship game against Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. Alabama won that game 32-13, and many argue that was the turning point for the elite dynasty of a program that ‘Bama has been.

They have also thumped the unranked foes. One would have to go back to 2007 in a loss against Louisiana-Monroe, where the Tide were upset at home. Since then, Saban has won 98 straight games against unranked foes.

The Tide reload with the best of them, and they have an athletic signal-caller with Bryce Young leading the way. Not everyone is sold on him, of course.

Young and the Tide now have Bill O’Brien as their new offensive coordinator, but they won’t turn into jobbers overnight. This team is arguably the best squad in the trenches still, and their depth is impressive.

The schedule is favorable, and I am not sure which team can knock them off, at least in the regular season. Texas A&M could be the toughest, but a new quarterback makes life tough when going up against Saban.

Miami, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, and Auburn are all respectable teams. However, they all have weaknesses, and we have seen Saban take advantage of any issues that a squad carries.

The Aggies should be the highest squad they see in the regular season against an SEC opponent, but Miami might be the other challenger on paper.

The Canes are getting closer to becoming a Top 10 squad, and they have an experienced roster. Their defense was carved up against Oklahoma State in their bowl loss, and that will make it even tougher on them when they go up against Alabama.

I would lean barely over on this win total and get accustomed to Saban having a few finishes that could come down to the wire.

This team will be borderline great yet again, but they likely won’t be the best Saban team ever. The confidence should develop as Young gets more experience under center, but there will always be stars that emerge unexpectedly when Nick Saban is coaching the Crimson Tide.

  • Pick: Over 11.5 (-105)

Clemson Tigers Win Total – 11.5

  • Over 11.5 wins (+105)
  • Under 11.5 wins (-135)

Excluding last year due to the shortened season, Clemson has been at either 11 or 11.5 for a win total the past few years.

Those were, of course, the freshman and sophomore seasons of Trevor Lawrence, which resulted in two national championship appearances with a win over Alabama and a loss to LSU.

Lawrence was setting records and demanding the attention of his teammates as soon as he started taking significant snaps under center.

Losing a once-in-a-lifetime player is never easy to replace, but it is always helpful when a five-star is the next man waiting in line. Lawrence leaves Clemson in the top three in career passing yards, touchdowns, total offensive yards, and total touchdowns. He was a legend and has added to the major success that the Tigers have achieved over the last decade.

It helps to have a legendary coach, as well.

Dabo Swinney has been getting top-three talent in America for at least five years now, and there should be no shock that the win total is this high. The schedule is super favorable without Notre Dame on the schedule, and North Carolina is not on there either (for the regular-season schedule).

I love the Tigers yet again due to the stifling defense that Brent Venables has led since 2012. He has been considered one of the premier defensive coordinators in the country for a long time. The production from that side of the ball has kept the Tigers in the running for a national championship almost every season as of late.

I also love the fact that Clemson has hit the Over in every season since 2011, where we have seen them between 7 and 11.5 wins. Just look at the records they’ve put together since then.

  • 2011: 10-4
  • 2012: 11-2
  • 2013: 11-2
  • 2014: 10-3
  • 2015: 14-1
  • 2016: 14-1
  • 2017: 12-2
  • 2018: 15-0
  • 2019: 14-1

I am wary of this win total that is set at a whopping 11.5 wins, though.

It really will come down to the first game of the season against Georgia. A defensive slugfest is what that game will turn into, and Clemson does not need that game as much as Georgia does.

That does not mean a whole lot, though, and the Tigers are slight favorites (-4) via the best sites for betting on college football. The ‘Dawgs have had the top-ranked run defense for two years running, and nothing seems to be stopping them.

Without Travis Etienne, the backfield could be a slight weakness for the Tigers and an advantage that Georgia takes full advantage of in that game.

I won’t bank on a Georgia win just yet. Still, that game of the year matchup looks like a pure toss-up game. I will not consider it as a playoff quarter-final where the loser is out by any means. Both teams can still make the playoff, but clearly, the loser will have their work cut out for them, and the winner can springboard the game towards a potential undefeated season.

You are better off wagering on the actual game than a win total that could blow up in your face on Labor Day weekend. A loss would lock the under, and a win would not officially lock up the over either.

It is tough to have that much patience, but if you believe Clemson is the best squad entering the season, then nobody is stopping you from making the bet.

I would consider passing and wagering on their season opener instead. My official pick is to stay away or lean on the under. The Clemson Tigers should be a fantastic team that likely reaches the College Football Playoff yet again, but they should have a blemish on their record along the way.

  • Pick: Under 11.5 (-135)

Ohio State Buckeyes Win Total – 11

  • Over 11 wins (-120)
  • Under 11 wins (-110)

The Buckeyes have been one of the greatest programs in the history of college football. They have been as dominating of a program as just about anybody in the last decade or so, excluding Alabama and Clemson.

We have seen them at 9 or more projected wins since 2005 with a 7-3-3 over cashing for bettors.

The Buckeyes have been dominant on both sides of the ball, and the schedule is once again favorable for a deep run into a potential New Year’s Eve trip to the College Football Playoff.

They have some of the best odds to win the whole thing in 2021, too. Check out where they slide in with the top-5 this year at BetOnline.

  • Alabama (+260)
  • Clemson (+500)
  • Oklahoma (+650)
  • Ohio State (+675)
  • Georgia (+700)

The toughest game of the season for Ohio State in the regular season might just be their last game. Laugh all you want since the Buckeyes have won eight straight over the Maize and Blue, but there aren’t too many other comparable games.

On paper, a date at the Horseshoe against Oregon and Penn State could be a challenge. I would argue a trip to Bloomington against the Hoosiers will bring the best out of them after nearly losing to them last season.

Ohio State will have home-field advantage in the majority of their tough games per se, but that last one at the Big House could be relatively competitive. At least it could be competitive since the last decade has been one-sided.

A loss there would be a push, but I don’t see the Buckeyes losing a game this regular season, and the Over would be the play to make without much juice involved.

I will gladly lean on an offense that features two future NFL starters at wide receiver with a pair of NFL tackles that will protect an inexperienced but talented quarterback. Ohio State has a few options under center as well, so life in Columbus for Ryan Day should continue to be friendly in 2021.

  • Pick: Over 11 (-120)

Oklahoma Sooners Win Total – 11

  • Over 11 wins (-115)
  • Under 11 wins (-115)

Lincoln Riley and the Sooners have been an offensive juggernaut that not many can match up with.

Spencer Rattler is the preseason Heisman favorite (+550) which is not what the rest of the Big 12 wants to hear. Even if you don’t think he wins, there’s no denying he’s among the top 2021 Heisman Trophy contenders this season.

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More good news for the Sooners is almost unfair, and the skill players should feast on the competition.

The Sooners will be decent-sized favorites to start the season out at 10-0 before hosting a potential Top 10 Iowa State squad. They follow that up with a trip to Stillwater for Bedlam, but those first 10 games are all favorable. They then have TCU at home and a matchup in Dallas against the Longhorns.

Those won’t be cakewalks by any means, but Oklahoma should be about one to two touchdown favorites for both of those games. This offense has a shot at leading the FBS in scoring among power-five teams, and I would bank on them being balanced enough to have their way with everybody on their schedule.

I will take the Over with the Sooners at 11 wins. Sit back and enjoy the show because Oklahoma has been as entertaining as any team for as long as Riley has worn the headset.

  • Pick: Over 11 (-115)

Georgia Bulldogs Win Total – 10.5

  • Over 10.5 (-135)
  • Under 10.5 (+105)

The Georgia Bulldogs are scrapping and clawing in search of their first national championship since 1980. JT Daniels gives them a puncher’s chance to be that winning quarterback on a team that will have plenty of obstacles ahead of them.

The depth is up there for Georgia, with all the teams ranked among the top in the nation, but their defense is what can separate them from the rest. Their top-ranked rushing defenses the last two seasons have been phenomenal, and allowing them to lose one game and still hit the over here is a solid advantage towards them.

The schedule is favorable for a program with a win total of 10.5 wins or more over the last three full seasons (2017, 2018, 2019). UAB, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt are between three and four touchdown-plus games that heavily favor the Bulldogs.

This is one of the better Over wages among these top college football teams that I favor due to an elite defense and an All-American caliber with a bevy of weapons.

Hosting Arkansas and Kentucky with a road trip sandwiched in between against Auburn is also manageable.

After their bye week, they have their annual battle against the Gators. That game has determined the winner of the East with a trip to Atlanta against Alabama more times than not for the last decade. Missouri, Tennessee, Charleston Southern, and Georgia Tech will all be potential blowout victories to close the season.

The schedule does not have many landmines, so really, it is all about the Gators.

Florida looms large towards the end of the season, but Auburn on the road and Kentucky at home seem to be the toughest stretch. That is very favorable for SEC standards. Take the Over here and start celebrating if Georgia can pull off a win in their opener against Clemson.

  • Pick: Over 10.5 (-135)

North Carolina Tar Heels Win Total – 10

  • Over 10 (-140)
  • Under 10 (+110)

Per SportsOddsHistory, this will be the highest Tar Heel win total ever projected.

The ACC Coastal will likely come down to Virginia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. Sam Howell is a superstar quarterback could end up being the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Due to Howell, this offense should flourish this season despite the losses of key players at both wide receiver and running back.

Mack Brown is a Hall of Famer and has already shown a ton in Chapel Hill. Life is always easier when you have a superstar signal-caller. He had a ton with Texas, and he has another in Howell.

For the Over to hit here, UNC must avoid any upsets. I like their chances, but the season opener looms large. Virginia Tech will be a very respectable team, and a loss there could put the Heels in jeopardy with a trip to Notre Dame and a home date with Miami.

Here are the games where the Tar Heels will be major favorites in.

  • Georgia State
  • Virginia
  • Georgia Tech
  • Duke
  • Pitt
  • Wake Forest
  • Wofford

Those are six games the Tar Heels should score 40-plus points in.

Games against Florida State and NC State could be trap games, but the overall talent should take over in the fourth quarter.

The three main games that some people may call for the upset will be against Virginia Tech (road), Miami, and Notre Dame (road)—barring a collapse and losing any of those games before the big three would be a shock. North Carolina would then need to win two of those three monster showdown games to hit the over on the win total.

I love the chances North Carolina has with this wager and am confident with this Over. An 11-1 regular season is a strong possibility, and I won’t rule out a 12-0 regular season with a potential undefeated matchup with Clemson.

The expectations are higher than ever before, and there is a reason for optimism in the final season (most likely) of Sam Howell.

  • Pick: Over 10 (-140)

Cincinnati Bearcats Win Total – 10

  • Over 10 (-115)
  • Under 10 (-115)

Luke Fickell and Desmond Ridder are among my favorite coach and quarterback combinations in the FBS. The amount of winning these last few seasons has shown how far this program has come. This is a tough total despite the major success the Bearcats have had.

The non-conference schedule is what dictates this win mark. A trip to Bloomington and Notre Dame could be two losses before October gets here.

The talent the Irish have certainly would make the Bearcats an underdog on the road, and the Hoosiers could also be a field goal favorite or so as well. I will lean with the power of five schools in these matchups (ACC/Independent; call Notre Dame what you will).

I feel this is a push and won’t rule out an upset in American Athletic Conference play, albeit I won’t be banking on an additional loss there in terms of the regular season.

This is the favorite to represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six bowl game, but being a bonafide threat to the College Football Playoff seems too tough to overcome based on their schedule.

Cincinnati has one of the highest 2021 college football win totals, but the Bearcats also are tough to trust. This one may be best left avoided.
  • Pick: Push

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Win Total – 10

  • Over 10 (-115)
  • Under 10 (-115)

The experts project the final double-digit squad in the desert to have major success.

Coastal Carolina came out of nowhere last season, picking up major victories over the likes of Kansas, BYU, and Appalachian State. Few will forget that tense game with the Cougars, either.

This year’s schedule is not as tough in the non-conference slate, but I do question the Chanticleers since they will have a massive target on their backs.

Grayson McCall and Isaiah Likely are fantastic players that could play at the next level. Likely is a lock to become a Sunday player,  becoming an All-American candidate at tight end, who possesses tremendous hands to go along with his NFL size (6-4, 245 pounds).

There are just a handful of games that should be highly competitive, and for the Over to cash in, Coastal would have to win about three of them. Hosting Kansas early in the season is a likely victory but going on the road against Appalachian State and Georgia Southern will be easier said than done.

Both of their Sun Belt counterparts gave them great games that came down to the fourth quarter, where the defense of Coastal proved to be the difference. I am more hesitant on those games than others, so I will call for a few losses this season.

I would stay away on this wager, as I foresee a push with a projected 10-2 regular-season record in my forecast.

  • Pick: Push

Betting on College Football Win Totals in 2021

A lot goes into betting on college football win totals. Even more so if you want to do so successfully.

The biggest thing, though, is eyeing value. You can usually see an advantageous win total immediately, so if the numbers just don’t add up, that may be the time to look for a different bet.

Targeting win totals for the elite college football teams is another tip to hold onto. Betting on big years out of Clemson, Alabama, and the like isn’t that bold – you just need to avoid something crazy.

It also helps to pay attention to coaching changes, player turnover, and schedules. Hopefully, this breakdown of the highest college football win totals in 2021 helps you decide how to bet on the best teams.

For NCAA football betting assistance when the season starts, be sure to check out our college football picks page.



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