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Guide to Betting on Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane – Predictions and Picks for UFC 270’s Main Event

| January 7, 2022 8:54 am PDT

The biggest question in MMA right now is who wins the Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane fight?

It’s something that bettors, perhaps more than any group of people, want to know the answer to. Now, we will get to find out who prevails in this clash of the titans at UFC 270 on January 22.

But if you’re planning to make money betting on Ngannou vs. Gane, that’s not something you can afford to wait for.

I’ve made my mind up about who wins and will be sharing my predictions for Ngannou vs. Gane with you, below. I have made my picks, so you can expect to find my top bets for Ngannou vs. Gane as well as some supporting commentary to box it all up.

So, if you’re wagering on the UFC’s biggest heavyweight fight of all time, keep scrolling to find out my thoughts.

Latest Odds for Ngannou vs. Gane

Francis Ngannou’s Odds to Win-105
Ciryl Gane’s Odds to Win-115

The UFC heavyweight champion, Francis Ngannou, is a moderate underdog ahead of UFC 270.

If you’re betting on the champ to win, Ngannou’s odds to beat Gane come in at -105. That means a $105 wager will return $100 in profit if he comes through with a 17th victory in his 20th fight. Those odds are mighty appealing, given that “The Predator” was pretty much deemed unbeatable following his demolition job of Stipe Miocic in 2021.

Gane’s odds to beat Ngannou are -115 with BetOnline. Unbeaten in ten straight fights, “Bon Gamin” stopped Derrick Lewis in August to win the interim heavyweight strap. He’s not stopping there, however, and is eyeing up the unified title currently held by his former teammate. 

I’ll be sharing more odds for Ngannou vs. Gane a little later. I’ve put together my top picks for the Ngannou-Gane fight that cover a wide range of markets beyond the moneyline. So, stick with me for those if you’re planning on wagering props for UFC 270’s main event.

Before we do that, it makes sense to get my predictions out of the way. So, here goes.

Predictions for Ngannou vs. Gane

  • Winner: Francis Ngannou
  • Predicted Method of Victory: KO/TKO
  • Predicted Round: 2

I can assure you that my Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane predictions have caused me my share of headaches.

This fight is a tough one to call. Ultimately, making a pick for Ngannou vs. Gane is easy — make a choice, flip a coin, or just pick one of two pieces of paper out of a hat. The difficult part is explaining the how and why behind your selection.

As you can see from my Ngannou vs. Gane predictions, I am going for a stoppage win for the champion. The reason why is that his power is just phenomenal, and I cannot back against it.

The Tale of the Tape
Status Francis Ngannou Ciryl Gane
Age 35 31
Record 16-3-0 10-0-0
Height 6’4″ 6’4″
Weight 250lbs 245lbs
Reach 83″ 81″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.54 5.37
Striking Accuracy 41% 57%

Gane is a special fighter, but he is not unsusceptible to being touched. He will take at least one major shot from Francis and this could effectively dictate the course of the contest. When it comes to landing that ferocious right hand, Ngannou must be lucky just once; Gane has to be lucky all of the time. 

I believe Gane will escape the first round but will be caught in the second and ultimately knocked out. A bold prediction? I don’t think so. This is a 50/50 fight that will come down to power or technical skill. I’m going with power.

I go deeper on things later. First, though, let’s see the top bets you can place on Ngannou vs. Gane with the leading MMA sportsbooks.

The Top Bets for Ngannou vs. Gane at UFC 270

Depending on who you bet on at UFC 270, the following bets might not be up your street. 

By now, you’ll know that my obvious betting pick for Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane is a win for the champion. But does it make sense to bet on Ngannou to win when the most likely scenario where he wins the fight involves a knockout?

If there is more money to be made by backing The Predator to stop Bon Gamin, that’s the way to go, right? In this scenario, yes.

Fight Goes Over 1.5 Rounds (-162)

Six of Ngannou’s 19 fights, win or lose, have ended in the first round.

Logically, that’s a major reason to look at playing the under here at odds of +120. But Gane is very different from the fighters that Ngannou has faced before. The only real comparison that can be made between Ciryl and any of the African’s previous opponents would be Stipe Miocic, who Ngannou lost to on the cards (5) and knocked out (2).

The first round will be a feeling-out process between the pair. If you’re betting on Ngannou knocking Gane out in one, it’s not to say that it can’t happen, but it is unlikely. I can see the Frenchman’s footwork and composure helping him past the midway point of the second round.

Ngannou to Win by KO/TKO (+138)

Ciryl Gane’s chances of stopping Francis Ngannou are slim. But perhaps only if you are envisaging him coming out all guns blazing from the get-go. Because, well, that ain’t gonna happen.

With Ngannou, I would be as equally surprised to see him burst out and bull Gane down. He knows how good this man is technically, and that’s not exactly the way to go about business. Instead, he will look to time his former training partner and catch him at a vulnerable moment.

With that said, the longer the fight goes on, the slimmer Ngannou’s chances become. He has a window of two to three rounds to get the job done but must manage his energy efficiently.

Ngannou Wins by KO/TKO in Round 3 (+1600)

The best odds for Ngannou vs. Gane bets, at least my opinion, can be found in some of the combination props for the fight.

If you think about it, this fight is almost certain to come down to one of two things — Ngannou by KO/TKO or Gane by decision. I’ll take Ngannou to KO Gane, thus making up half of this bet. 

There are five rounds in this championship fight. As I see it, the bout will not make it past the third, thus removing the 4th and 5th stanzas from my line of thinking. Gane should be able to navigate through the first two rounds, which leaves us with Round 3. 

Round 3 is the one to go for, as it will likely be important for one major reason. Gane will likely be ahead on the cards by this point, meaning it will be time for Ngannou to shift gears and start to press for openings. I believe the fight ends with a Ngannou stoppage in the third.

Ngannou vs. Gane Picks to Avoid

To increase your chances of winning money betting on Ngannou vs. Gane, I’d recommend looking past the following bets. 

  • Anything involving a Ngannou submission – Despite having four submission wins to his name, Ngannou’s last win on the mat came against Anthony Hamilton in December 2016. He is unlikely to favor his submission game over power from a dominant position on the floor.
  • Anything involving a Ngannou decision – If this fight goes the distance, it’s extremely doubtful that the power puncher will emerge victoriously. His game plan will be to stop Gane, who, in turn, will be looking to outpoint the champ.
  • Anything involving a split decision/majority decision – Should Gane avoid being stopped, he will likely run out a dominant winner on all three judges’ scorecards.

Why Bet on Ngannou to Beat Gane?

Again, the odds for Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane don’t lie. This is as close you will get to a pick ’em fight in this division for a long time. 

Gane is a phenomenal striker and something we have probably never seen before in this division. Scrap that — we have never seen anything quite like this guy. He moves like a welterweight, has a razor-sharp fight IQ, and is pretty much the blueprint for future heavyweights.

Still, I must give the edge to the champion. To say that all Ngannou has is power would be very foolish, especially if you have been paying attention over these last few years. 

Since being exposed as one-dimensional by Stipe Miocic at UFC 220 in 2018, Ngannou has evaporated every fighter put in front of him. Including Miocic, who he knocked out in phenomenal fashion in 2021. 

Opponent Result Round of Victory Fight Time Event
Stipe Miocic Win by KO 2 0:52 UFC 260
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Win by KO 1 0:20 UFC 249
Junior dos Santos Win by TKO 1 1:11 UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos
Cain Velasquez Win by KO 1 0:26 UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Curtis Blaydes Win by TKO 1 0:45 UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2

Amazingly, his total fight time from his last five comes to just 7:54 from a possible 125 minutes. That’s right. It has taken the African heavyweight less than eight minutes from a possible two hours and change to beat those guys above. We’re not talking bums here, either.

So, are we sleeping on Ngannou? Are we falling into the trap, yet again, of hopping on the hype train and getting all carried away with ourselves? While I’d hardly describe Gane as anything resembling a hype job, people are underestimating just how effective Ngannou is.

Remember, Gane has a resume that is nowhere near as impressive as that of his opponent. Sure, he is a completely different fighter, so knockouts aren’t a fair gauge of his talent. But he also lacks the exposure to the high-stress situations that Ngannou is now fully accustomed to.

The pressure is all on Ciryl Gane. His job is to come and dethrone the scariest knockout artist in the history of mixed martial arts. In doing so, he must avoid being hit by a right hand that is, according to UFC President Dana White, the same as being “hit by a Ford Escort going as fast as it can.”

As much as I am a huge fan of Gane, I don’t see this fight ending well for him. Ngannou has matured into a smarter and more patient threat since his last loss, and I believe he will hit a home run in the third. If all goes according to plan, we might have another addition to Ngannou’s greatest knockouts of all time.

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Regardless of whether you are betting on Ngannou to beat Gane or vice versa, I wish you luck. 

This fight has all the makings of a classic and I cannot wait to see how it unfolds. It would be naive to call it a case of power vs. technique, but in truth, it’s not far from the crude reality of the situation. 

As much as Ngannou vs. Gane is the biggest UFC fight to bet on in January, there is life after this one. Read the following piece to find out about the other major fights you can gamble on that are coming our way this month.

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Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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