Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFC Title Game Betting Preview
It hasn’t been long since the field for NFL Conference Championship week was made official. In fact, I already took an early look at this two-game slate, first with a breakdown of the early NFL Conference Championship odds.
More content will flow through here, but we wanted to push out a post 100% dedicated to figuring out how to bet on the 2020 NFC Championship game.
This Sunday’s showdown offers a rematch between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Meeting number one was a 37-8 blood bath in favor of the Niners, who went 13-3 and claimed the NFC West division crown.
San Francisco punched their ticket to this game with a fairly decisive 27-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings last week and are now one win from Super Bowl 54.
Green Bay is no slouch, of course. Despite getting rocked by the 49ers earlier this year, the Packers have made a living out of closing out tight games. The green and gold finished the regular season at 13-3 and won the NFC North crown.
The Packers have some positive momentum of their own, too, as they staved off the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional Round, 28-23.
While this is a somewhat familiar matchup — and certainly an iconic one — the big question on everyone’s mind is if the Packers actually have a shot here. Join me as I break this game down in an effort to figure that out, starting with the Packers vs. 49ers NFC title game odds.
Packers vs. 49ers Betting Odds
San Francisco opened as 7-point favorites, but the top-rated NFL bookmakers have increased their advantage since then. I doubt the lines will move much more than this, but to this point, 60% of the bets and 61% of the money are backing the Niners to cover.
It’s possible the sportsbooks try to influence betting action back to Green Bay’s side by thickening the point spread or fattening up the Packers’ moneyline.
Regardless, San Francisco is fully expected to win this game.
If you don’t want to play with the moneyline or point spread, you can also consider betting on the Packers vs. 49ers game total. It’s a really palatable 45 despite the first game hitting this exact mark and the two teams combining for well over this Total if you look at their regular-season scoring averages.
For what it’s worth, the Over has gone just 8-8-1 for the Niners this year and 7-10 for the Packers.
Packers vs. 49ers Matchup History
This is quite the epic NFC title game clash. San Francisco positively waxed the Packers in the earlier meeting this year (37-8), but these games are otherwise typically very close.
Whether it be Aaron Rodgers vs. Colin Kaepernick or Brett Favre vs. Steve Young, these matchups tend to produce a fun game environment and threaten to deliver instant classics.
Just take a look at the last five meetings between these two sides (* indicates playoffs).
- 11/24/2019: San Francisco 49ers 37, Green Bay Packers 8
- 10/15/2018: Green Bay Packers 33, San Francisco 49ers 30
- 10/4/2015: Green Bay Packers 17, San Francisco 49ers 3
- 1/5/2014: San Francisco 49ers 23, Green Bay Packers 20*
- 9/8/2013: San Francisco 49ers 34, Green Bay Packers 28
It’s always good to look at recent history, but all this tells us is these teams have faced off in some big games and they usually get up for these matchups. Context tells us that Green Bay has faced a Kyle Shanahan-led team just twice, and they’ve gone up against Jimmy Garoppolo just one time.
Green Bay has also faced this rendition of an elite Niners defense once, with atrocious results.
Packers vs. 49ers matchup history doesn’t tell us how this weekend’s game will turn out, beyond it potentially being an exact replica of what we saw back in November. However, the 49ers could be in Green Bay’s heads, having won the last two postseason meetings.
Against the Spread and Other Useful Data
You’re going to be on the hunt for any helpful Packers vs. 49ers betting data, simply because this is a tough game to project.
Do we just assume that first meeting is the reality in this matchup? If not, can the Packers actually win this game or beat this spread?
Those are the burning questions, and you’ll need plenty of research to point you in the right direction. To assist you, here’s a look at some ATS data and other numbers that stand out.
- Packers are 14-3 overall
- Packers are 11-6 ATS
- Packers are 6-2 on the road
- Packers are 5-3 ATS on the road
- Packers are 3-1 SU as underdogs
- Packers are 3-1 ATS as underdogs
- Packers are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs
- Packers are 11-2 vs. NFC
- Packers are 8-5 ATS vs. NFC
- Packers are 8-3 outside of NFC North
- Packers are 7-4 ATS outside of NFC North
- 49ers are 14-3 overall
- 49ers are 10-6-1 ATS
- 49ers are 6-2 at home
- 49ers are 4-4-1 ATS at home
- 49ers are 10-2 SU as favorites
- 49ers are 5-6-1 ATS as favorites
- 49ers are 4-4-1 ATS as home favorites
- 49ers are 11-2 vs. NFC
- 49ers are 7-5-1 ATS vs. NFC
- 49ers are 9-2 outside of NFC West
- 49ers are 8-3 ATS outside of NFC West
- Packers are 7-4 ATS outside of NFC North
- Packers are 1-1 vs. Kyle Shanahan
- Packers lead all-time series, 36-31-1
- Kyle Shanahan is 1-0 in the playoffs
- Matt LaFleur is 1-0 in the playoffs
Both teams have won a lot of games in a lot of different ways. When you factor in net points and look at their schedules, it’s fair to assess San Francisco was more dominant and had a tougher overall schedule.
Green Bay was in a lot of very close games and prevailed the majority of the time, though.
The other big thing is how these teams fared against the spread in isolated situations. The 49ers usually won games they were favored in, but a 4-4-1 ATS mark at home and 5-6-1 ATS record as favorites is a little troubling.
The Packers have responded fairly well to adversity, on the other hand. Green Bay posted a solid 5-3 against the spread mark on the road and were 3-1 as underdogs, both straight up and ATS.
Green Bay’s lone miss in that regard? A brutal road loss to these very 49ers in late November.
San Francisco holds the overall edge here, but it’s also interesting to note that the teams have split the series with Shanahan in town, and both of these head coaches are undefeated in their first playoff runs (naturally, of course).
Best Bet for Packers vs. 49ers
I already touched on my favorite bet for this game in my NFL Conference Championship lock of the week. Repeating myself has never been an issue for me, though. Just ask my wife.
In all seriousness, I am not a big fan of this point spread. The Niners cleared this and then some in the first meeting, while the Packers have either pushed or fallen short of this point spread in all three of their losses.
Green Bay otherwise played in a lot of close games and managed them well enough to get the victory 14 times. If you believe they win this game, the moneyline is insanely attractive, and the point spread is highway robbery.
I don’t think it’s a fun point spread, even if Green Bay keeps it close. Instead, I love the Over, as this 45 total just feels way to low.
San Francisco’s defense looked rather elite in shutting down the Minnesota Vikings last week, while the 49ers offense only poured in 27 points.
I think the Packers will be markedly better the second time around in this matchup, and with so much on the line — a trip to Super Bowl 54, anyone? — I fully expect them to put forth a better effort than the Vikings just did.
On the flip side, the Niners showed in the previous meeting just how explosive they can be, and Green Bay’s defense is prone to some big plays. I think we get a mild shootout this week, while this Total is simply low in general.
Packers vs. 49ers Over 45-110
Who Will Win This Game?
The second the New Orleans Saints got bounced from round one of these NFL playoffs, I hopped on the 49ers bandwagon. I was never that far from doing so, however, as I predicted San Francisco would win the NFC West before the season began.
San Francisco survives on their aggressive and physical defense, they can burn you with big plays down the field, and they have three running backs who can run all over you.
From top to bottom, they’re simply the better team here, and I don’t see them losing this game. You won’t be getting much value by betting on them to win at -350 at most NFL betting sites, but it’s still the correct wager.
Green Bay has had a terrific season and should show up in this one. They’ll make the Niners sweat initially and perhaps even end up beating this spread, but their inability to play a complete game all year is going to be their undoing against a team that doesn’t make many mistakes.
San Francisco 49ers to Win-350