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French Open Betting Preview for 2019

| May 17, 2019 12:00 am PDT
French Open Betting Preview

I already shared an early betting preview of the 2019 French Open, including picks and predictions for both the men’s and women’s singles.

That was more than two months ago, so I feel it’s time to see what the latest French Open betting odds are and how things have changed since.

The 2019 Roland Garros will start on May 26th, so the eyes of the tennis world are already focused on the big favorites.

Those favorites include a lot of familiar faces but also some emerging stars that will be eager to leave their mark in French Open history.

Let’s not waste any more time and jump straight to my French Open 2019 predictions.

Previewing the 2019 Men’s French Open

Here are the odds for the favorites in the men’s singles bracket of the 2019 French Open.

Rafael Nadal2.20
Novak Djokovic3.00
Dominic Thiem5.50
Alexander Zverev17.00
Roger Federer21.00

Rafa Nadal is still the favorite, but the odds are now higher. He was my top pick, but the movement in the price for my second choice, Dominic Thiem, is unreal. You could get 13.00 for him to win the French Open in 2019 in March, and that’s down to only 5.50 now!

I hope some of you followed my initial pick. Let’s take a look at each favorite individually before sharing my final predictions for the current moment.

Rafael Nadal

For the first time in years, Rafael Nadal actually looks vulnerable on red courts. The King of Clay suffered a couple of unexpected defeats, which is the reason why the price for him to win has increased up to 2.20. It was under 1.90 only two months ago.

It all started after the Mexico Open when Rafa had issues with his right hip. He was forced to retire from the tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami.

The Spaniard returned to play in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, two events that he has dominated throughout the years. Nadal’s performance there was below his best, as he reached the semi-finals of both competitions, only to lose them both.

His movement and serve were far from optimal, which suggests that he is not at 100% physically. The good news is that Rafa has enough time to get in shape, and he still had a couple of good games in both competitions.

I expect him to be better in the Madrid Open and hit peak form for the 2019 Roland-Garros. As it stands, I have some doubts about his condition, but the price of 2.20 is tempting.

If Nadal performs well in Madrid, the odds will certainly drop back to the 2.00 mark or so. This is why I feel now is the time to place a wager on Rafa to win the French Open 2019.

Even in his current form, he is among the best players on clay. If he improves slightly, he should be the big favorite to once again win the Roland-Garros.

Novak Djokovic

The world number one Novak Djokovic is having a great year. He already won the Australian Open and currently holds all Grand Slam titles, with the exception of the French Open. The Serbian player will be eager to once again triumph in Paris and simultaneously hold all of the Majors at the same time.

I’m under the impression that Djokovic has adopted a strategy that’s similar to what Roger Federer has been doing for most of his late career. Nole is skipping some tournaments to preserve energy. His main target is to win as many Grand Slams as possible.

The only competition on red he entered this season was the Monte Carlo Masters. He was knocked out in the quarter-finals and didn’t show much. Djokovic won’t be playing in other tournaments before the 2019 French Open.

I believe that his schedule is so light because he is focused solely on the Roland-Garros. The leader in the ATP rankings wants to peak physically in Paris.

Considering the price of 3.00, Djokovic looks like a viable choice. His form in 2018 and 2019 suggests that the Serbian master is one of the people who could take full advantage of any slump by Rafa Nadal.

The desire will be there, and we already know that the skills are.

Dominic Thiem

The price for Dominic Thiem to win the 2019 French Open was 13.00 just two months ago, and this was probably the best value bet out there. As I already said in my early preview of this year’s Roland-Garros, he seems bound to win the trophy at some point of his career.

The Austrian’s performance since then makes me think such a triumph might come earlier than expected, like… this year. Thiem was capable of capturing his first Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells and followed that with another victory in Barcelona, beating Rafa Nadal in straight sets on the road to the final.

The confidence of the Austrian is certainly sky-high, and he already reached the semi-finals and the final of the Roland-Garros in 2017 and 2018 respectively. He could very well go one step further this time around, too.

Unfortunately, too many people see that now, and the price for Thiem has dropped too much. You can currently back him at 5.00, which is not enough, in my opinion. He has the skills to challenge Nadal and Djokovic, but the experience and fighting spirit of both men are on another level.

The Rest of the Field

With all my respect to the rest of the players in the men’s singles of the 2019 French Open, I don’t think that any of them have a realistic chance of winning the tournament.

Guys like Federer, del Potro, Zverev, and even the young prodigy Tsitsipas can be dangerous and will probably have deep runs. However, they will come up short against Nadal, Djokovic, or Thiem. Furthermore, they will probably have to beat two of the three on the road to the title, and this simply doesn’t look possible right now.

French Open Men’s Outright Winner Betting Pick

I strongly believe that the 2019 French Open will be decided between the three guys I talked about the most so far. If Nadal can hit top form, he should be able to take the Roland-Garros home once again.

If he doesn’t, Djokovic is the most likely winner. I think the world number one is desperate to grab the trophy and will be close to his best.

The only guy who seems capable of upsetting those two is Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is made for clay courts, but he doesn’t have the experience on such a level.

Considering the available prices, I think that it’s between Nadal and Djokovic. If you want to play it safe, you can back both of them. The odds of 2.20 and 3.00 respectively allow you to do that and still register a profit.

If you want to stick to only one guy, it has to be Rafa Nadal. He is the best player on clay the world has ever seen and is still close enough to his top form.

PICKRafael Nadal to Win the French Open2.20

Previewing the 2019 Women’s French Open

Let’s take a look at the odds in the ladies’ bracket.

Simona Halep6.00
Serena Williams8.50
Garbine Muguruza10.00
Elina Svitolina11.00
Naomi Osaka11.00
Petra Kvitova11.00
Sloane Stephens11.00

You can immediately tell by the odds how much closer the women’s 2019 French Open is. There are no big favorites, and we have 5-6 or even more potential winners.

While it’s much harder to make a prediction, the prices allow you to back two or even three contenders at the same time and still get a solid profit. I would say that this is one of the viable strategies for the outright winner market.

Let’s take a look at the different options.

Simona Halep

I can certainly see why Simona Halep is the favorite of the bookies for the 2019 French Open. The Romanian is the reigning champion in Paris and has reached another two finals in the years before that.

She might lack success in the other Grand Slams, but the Roland-Garros is where Halep has been extremely consistent. She is in the prime of her career, and she has the confidence to triumph in Paris.

Halep is an excellent baseliner that can both defend and stay aggressive from deep. Such a style works best on clay courts, and she is certainly among the best out there on that surface.

The price of 6.00 is solid, so I still think that backing Halep is the smart choice.

Serena Williams

The legendary Serena Williams will be 38 this year, but she still is among the contenders when it comes to Grand Slam tournaments. She won one for the last time in 2017, but two finals after giving birth in 2018 suggest that Serena might have more Majors left in her.

The problem is that clay is not her favorite surface. She has the worst record in the French Open in comparison to any of the other Grand Slam tournaments. Serena did win the competition three times during her career, but I don’t think she will do it again.

The experience and power of the American will help her for a deep run, but there are plenty of young and hungry opponents that have a style that’s better suited for the red courts of the Roland-Garros.

I expect Williams to contest the Wimbledon and the US Open, but I don’t think she can win in Paris.

Garbine Muguruza

I mentioned that Garbine Muguruza is one to watch in my early French Open 2019 betting preview. The Spaniard has been wildly inconsistent throughout her career. She usually performs really well in one Grand Slam during the year but fails to impress in the rest.

A look at her previous results shows that Muguruza is most likely to explode exactly in the French Open. She already won the competition in 2016 and even reached the last four in 2018, which was a bad year for her.

Muguruza’s win percentage in Paris stands at 83%, which is exceptional for a 25-year-old. I expect another deep run from the Spaniard, but the odds of 10.00 look about right, so I don’t think backing her makes sense.

She simply can’t play at her best often enough. Further proof of that is the start of the clay season, as Muguruza was beaten by Petra Matic in the very first round of the Madrid Open.

Naomi Osaka

If you are looking for the next legendary tennis player that will succeed Serena Williams as the best of her generation, it has to be Naomi Osaka. The Japanese is only 21 but is already number one in the world and won the last two Grand Slams.

Osaka has a strong serve, a lot of power, and the ability to dictate the tempo from the baseline. She has the perfect skill set for the French Open. This is the reason I backed her in my early preview of the tournament, but her results since are a bit worrying.

The Japanese struggled in her last three tournaments, even retiring in Stuttgart because of an abdominal injury. Another bad sign is that Osaka split with her coach Sascha Bajin after winning the Australian Open.

I still believe that the Japanese athlete is destined for greatness because of her skill and her mentality of a winner. However, it seems like Osaka hit the first slump in her career for multiple reasons. Her shaky form, combined with the changes in her coaching staff and the recent injury, make her a risky pick for the French Open.

The price of 11.00 might be tempting, but I don’t think that the world number one will be at her best.

The Rest of the Field

On the surface, there are plenty of other players that could win the 2019 French Open women’s singles. The likes of Elina Svitolina, Sloane Stephens, and Petra Kvitova should not be underestimated.

And yet, I simply don’t see any value in the odds for them. Svitolina has been struggling with injuries, Kvitova never plays well in Paris, and Stephens is very inconsistent. There are similar reasons to stay away from the rest of the field as well.

French Open Women’s Outright Winner Betting Pick

Ever since Serena Williams gave birth and slowed down a bit, the women’s Grand Slams have been tough to predict. The field is extremely competitive, and there are a number of contenders every time.

The 2019 French Open is not an exception, but I still feel that Simona Halep makes the most sense. The price of 6.00 is decent enough for the reigning champion and three times finalist.

In my early preview, I combined picking her and Osaka, but the Japanese has looked shaky since. I currently don’t see a second player that’s worth a shot, so I will only back Halep this time around.

PICKSimona Halep to Win the French Open6.00

Final Words

There are still a couple of weeks left before the 2019 French Open starts. A lot of the favorites will be playing in Madrid in that period. I will be watching, and I strongly advise you to do the same if you want to bet on the winner.

If you are looking for the best bookmaker for the tournament, you should certainly check out our recommended French Open betting sites.

Another page that should be helpful is our complete Roland-Garros betting guide. It features general and advanced tips on how to make money from the tournament, but also fresh odds, updates, and picks for the current edition. Once the French Open 2019 is underway, you will find a lot of predictions and analysis from my fellow writers and me.

Before that, I would love to see your own betting pick and predictions on this year’s Roland-Garros. Do you agree with my preview, or do you have a different opinion? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below.

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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