Free Horse Racing Picks and Tips for Oaklawn on Saturday, May 2, 2020

By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing
| May 1, 2020 4:54 am PDT
Free Horse Racing Picks and Tips for Oaklawn on Saturday, May 2, 2020

Oaklawn finishes up its Spring 2020 Meet in style with a 14-race card that includes two divisions of the Arkansas Derby as well as the Oaklawn Handicap on Saturday, May 2, 2020.

Exciting on their own, the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby running on Saturday are both prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (now scheduled for September 5, 2020).

The folks at Churchill Downs have declared that each of the two divisions will count as a separate race for Road scoring purposes, meaning that each race will award 100-40-20-10 points respectively to the first, second, third, and fourth place finishers in each race.

The weather forecast for Hot Springs, Arkansas, calls for partly cloudy skies and a 10% chance of rain, temps in the mid-80s, and a 10 mph wind.

You can find Oaklawn’s complete list of races, entries and wagering options for Saturday at one of the follow recommended betting sites.

My Oaklawn pick and tips for Saturday are below. If you’d like more free horse racing betting selections for May 2nd, please see the following posts.

RACE 11 – Arkansas Derby (Division I)

  • Post Time: 5:29 PM
  • Purse: $500,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1-1/8 miles
  • Three Year Olds.

Race 11 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Charlatan, M Garcia, 1/1
  • 2 My Friends Beer, D Cannon, 20/1
  • 3 Mo Mosa, K Carmouche, 30/1
  • 4 Gouverneur Morris, J R Velazquez, 9/2
  • 5 Jungle Runner, T Baze, 30/1
  • 6 Shooters Shoot, J Talamo, SCRATCHED
  • 7 Wrecking Crew, F Prat, SCRATCHED
  • 8 Anneau d’Or, J J Hernandez, 6/1
  • 9 Winning Impression, J R Leparoux, 15/1
  • 10 Crypto Cash, C J Lanerie, 20/1
  • 11 Basin, R Santana, Jr., 8/1

Race 11 Prediction and Pick

There will be some disappointed Kentucky Derby hopefuls if the favorite in this race, Charlatan, makes good on his 1/1 moneyline odds. Charlatan is a nominee for the prep races but has thus far not run in a qualifying race, so he has yet to put a single point on the Kentucky Derby scoreboard. Still, a win would give Charlatan 100 points, planting the colt in the top five (yep, it’s that easy!), and a certain place in the starting gate at Churchill Downs in September.

I’m going with Charlatan here, because of jockey Martin Garcia, and because of Charlatan’s short but perfect career record of two starts, two wins.

Race 11 Tip

Look for Anneau d’Or, with Juan J. Hernandez aboard, to sneak in a win at 6/1. This would significantly boost the colt’s KD position (currently #28). That notwithstanding, Anneau d’Or has a solid career record of four starts, three finishes in the money, and one of those a win.

Pick
  • Charlatan
    1/1

RACE 12 – Oaklawn Handicap (Grade II)

  • Post Time: 6:04 PM
  • Purse: $600,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1-1/8 miles
  • Four Year Olds And Upward.

Race 12 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Chess Chief, B J Hernandez, Jr., 30/1
  • 2 Trophy Chaser, S Camacho, 12/1
  • 3 Bravazo, M Mena, 30/1
  • 4 Mr Freeze, J Talamo, 6/1
  • 5 Identifier, S Elliott, 20/1
  • 6 Warrior’s Charge, F Geroux, 8/1
  • 7 Combatant, J Rosario, 4/1
  • 8 Sky Promise, O Mojica, 20/1
  • 9 Tacitus, J R Velazquez, 9/2
  • 10 Captivating Moon, J R Leparoux, 20/1
  • 11 Tax, K Carmouche, 15/1
  • 12 By My Standards, G Saez, 9/2
  • 13 Night Ops, J Castellano, 15/1
  • 14 Improbable, M Garcia, SCRATCHED

Race 12 Prediction and Pick

I like the favorite in this race, Combatant, at 4/1. Ridden by Joel Rosario, Combatant has the record, the experience, and the youth to win.

Race 12 Tip

At 20/1, Sky Promise with Orlando Mojica aboard is very undervalued for this race. With a 28-start career, 15 of which were in the money (7 of those wins), Sky Promise knows what time it is. You might also take a look at Warrior’s Charge, ridden by Florent Geroux, at 8/1. Less of a payday, but not as risky.

Pick
  • Combatant
    4/1

RACE 13 – Arkansas Derby (Division II)

  • Post Time: 6:43 PM
  • Purse: $500,000
  • Type: STAKES
  • Distance: 1-1/8 miles
  • Three Year Olds.

Race 13 Runners and Odds Forecast

  • 1 Finnick the Fierce, M Garcia, 15/1
  • 2 Saratogian, J Talamo, SCRATCHED
  • 3 Storm the Court, F Prat, 6/1
  • 4 King Guillermo, S Camacho, 3/1
  • 5 Nadal, J Rosario, 5/2
  • 6 Code Runner, S Elliott, 50/1
  • 7 Silver Prospector, R Santana, Jr., 10/1
  • 8 Fast Enough, T Baze, SCRATCHED
  • 9 Taishan, D Cohen, 15/1
  • 10 Farmington Road, J Castellano, 12/1
  • 11 Wells Bayou, F Geroux, 7/2

Race 13 Prediction and Pick

With five of the top twenty horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby scoreboard in this race, we can be pardoned for wondering if some aren’t protecting their current slots rather than seeking additional points or a better position on the list. After all, how much will a win here help Wells Bayou—already number two on the Road scoreboard?

In any case, the favorite in the race at hand is Nadal, ridden by Joel Rosario, at 5/2, with King Guillermo (3/1) and Well Bayou (7/2) close behind. It’s hard to argue with Nadal’s perfect career record—three starts, three wins—so I’m not going to. I’m calling this one for Nadal.

Pick
  • Nadal
    5/2

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