Below are my Churchill Downs picks and tips for today. Post time for the first race on Friday is 1 PM (EDT).
Post Time: 3:36 PM
Distance: 1-1/16 miles
Conditions: For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Race 6 Runners and Odds Forecast
1 Ria Munk, T Gaffalione, 20/1
2 Harmony Victory, F Geroux, 12/1
3 Dreamalildreamofu, S Bridgmohan, 9/2
4 Second Coming, J Graham, 10/1
5 Tempers Rising, J R Leparoux, 5/2
6 Strong Flag, R Santana, Jr., 4/1
7 Curlinesque, B J Hernandez, Jr., 12/1
8 Envoutante, J L Ortiz, 4/1
9 Cherokee Maiden, M Garcia, 8/1
Race 6 Prediction and Pick
I like Envoutante at 4/1, ridden by Jose Ortiz. This three-year-old filly has a brief but meaty record of three money finishes out of four career starts.
Race 6 Tip
At 20/1, Ria Munk, with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, is undervalued. This five-year-old mare has a fair-to-middlin’ record—four money finishes in her nine career starts—but in this race, she’s got the pole position and a veteran jockey in the irons to her advantage.
Post Time: 4:08 PM
Type: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Distance: 7 furlongs
Conditions: For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won $10,000 Three Times Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Restricted, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Four Races Or Claiming Price $80,000
Race 7 Runners and Odds Forecast
1 Rare Form, J Talamo, 8/1
2 Absolutely Aiden, C Landeros, 15/1
3 Boldor, T Baze, 8/1
4 Borracho, J L Ortiz, 6/1
5 Troubling Moon, B J Hernandez, Jr., 5/1
6 Home Base, J Rocco, Jr., 12/1
7 Lexitonian, T Gaffalione, 20/1
8 Hog Creek Hustle, J Rosario, 4/1
9 Minecraft Maniac, M Garcia, 30/1
10 Early Mischief, J Graham, 12/1
11 Bourbon Calling, J R Leparoux, 6/1
12 Manny Wah, SCRATCHED
13 K J’s Nobility, C H Borel, 15/1
Race 7 Prediction and Pick
I’m going to stick with the 4/1 favorite, Hog Creek Hustle, ridden by Joel Rosario. With nine money finishes out of 15 career starts (three of them wins), this colt can do it, and Rosario is the winningest jockey in this race.
Race 7 Tip
It appears to be all or nothing for Absolutely Aiden. In 10 career starts, this four-year-old colt has had five money finishes—all five of them wins. His 15/1 odds in this race seem a tad steep, because I think Chris Landeros in the irons could pilot him to another win.
Hog Creek Hustle
Post Time: 4:40 PM
Distance: 5 furlongs (turf)
Conditions: For Three Year Olds And Upward. If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five Furlongs
Race 8 Runners and Odds Forecast
1 Ghoul, D Cohen, 8/1
2 Dubini, J Castellano, 15/1
3 Real News, C J Hernandez, 8/1
4 Totally Boss, F Geroux, 3/1
5 Wilbo, C J Lanerie, 15/1
6 Bulletin, R Santana, Jr., 8/1
7 Wellabled, A Jimenez, 8/1
8 Heartwood, SCRATCHED
9 Leinster, T Gaffalione, 4/1
10 Extravagant Kid, J Rosario, 7/2
11 Carotari, J L Ortiz, 8/1
Race 8 Prediction and Pick
Again, I’m sticking with the 7/2 favorite in this race—Extravagant Kid, with Joel Rosario aboard. This seven-year-old gelding moneyed 30 times in 41 career starts—13 of them wins.
Race 8 Tip
At 15/1 moneyline odds, you might not think that Wilbo has a record virtually identical to that of the favorite, but he does. Out of 40 career starts, this eight-year-old gelding finished in the money 29 times—13 of those wins. And with Corey Lanerie aboard, it could happen again.
You can also find plenty more regularly updated horse racing betting picks here.
J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).
Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with poker, blackjack, and slots.