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Formula 1 Betting Preview for the 2019 Season

| March 11, 2019 12:00 am PDT
2019 Formula 1 Betting Preview

The 2019 Formula 1 season is about to begin, so this is a good time to share my betting preview for this year.

I will take a look at the Drivers’ Championship and Constructors’ Championship odds and share my F1 predictions for the season ahead.

But before everything else, let’s see the prices.

As you will see, the bookmakers seem to believe that we should expect some battles between familiar faces and teams.

F1 Drivers’ Championship Odds

Lewis Hamilton+110
Sebastian Vettel+175
Charles Leclerc+450
Max Verstappen+900
Valtteri Bottas+2500

Constructors’ Championship Odds

Red Bull+550

Mercedes should be battling Ferrari, and their respective leading pilots, Lewis Hamilton and Seb Vettel, are the favorites.

Red Bull is right behind them, but no one expects wonders from the team, bar the occasional podium and probably some wins for Max Verstappen.

The truth is, it’s hard to see beyond the big guns, as there have been only two occasions of podiums that didn’t consist of Ferrari, Mercedes, and Renault in the past two seasons. Such a gap is rarely melted so quickly unless there are some radical changes, and this is not the case in the 2019 Formula 1 season.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the F1 Championship odds for drivers and constructors.

F1 Drivers’ Championship Betting for 2019

I believe most of you will be more interested in the drivers, so this is where I’ll start. The aspects I will consider here are simple — how good is the driver, how good is his car, and what is his team status?

Lewis Hamilton +110

It was only natural to see that Lewis Hamilton is the big favorite for the 2019 F1 season. The Mercedes driver has won the championship in four of the last five seasons, including back to back titles in 2017 and 2018.

His triumph last year was particularly impressive, as Hamilton was able to get the job done rather early. The Englishman will be hoping to do the same, and he looks better than ever. The mature version of himself was on display last year, and he overcame some problems in the early part of the season without letting them ruin his concentration.

Hamilton is exceptional in all parts of the weekend — the preparation, the qualifications, and the race itself. He most certainly is in contention, and he is the undisputed number one in a strong Mercedes team, so the price of +110 makes sense.

The biggest question is where Mercedes stands compared to Ferrari. Sebastian Vettel was a mere .003 seconds ahead of Hamilton, but Ferrari has experienced multiple reliability issues during winter testing.

On top of that, Mercedes is certainly a team that knows how to progress during the season. I don’t think there is a big gap in terms of speed right now, so I would say that both teams are close to each other, and it will probably stay that way for most of the 2019 season.

Some may see the price for Hamilton to win as a bit short, but I don’t think that’s the case. Actually, it might be the best betting pick out there, but let’s look at the competition first.

Sebastian Vettel +175

The biggest threat for Hamilton is obviously Sebastian Vettel, and he was the only one who actually challenged Mercedes last year. In fact, a couple of errors by both him and his team, Ferrari, handed their rivals both the drivers’ and the constructors’ championships.

On the bright side, this was the first time Mercedes was truly tested since Formula 1 entered the turbo-hybrid era in 2014. The early signs are that Ferrari will be once again strong this year, probably even stronger than 2018.

The big question is if Vettel and his team will avoid the mistakes they made in the last F1 season. I think the hurtful experience might make both the driver and his crew better.

However, there is another problem with Vettel, and this is the recruitment of young prodigy Charles Leclerc. The German should be the undisputed number one of Ferrari, but if his teammate somehow manages to be ahead after a couple of races, this might change.

And yet, I think Vettel will be eager to prove his worth and win his first title since his early Formula 1 days. After all, many believed he might be the greatest driver ever, but he hasn’t lifted the championship since 2013, and Lewis Hamilton has surpassed him in many aspects.

2019 is a year in which Vettel will have the chance to get back on track, and Ferrari looks set to supply him with a car that should be strong enough to fight Mercedes and Hamilton.

Charles Leclerc +450

One of the drivers that could actually enter the title fight and mess up the plans of the big two is Charles Leclerc. The talented youngster won two Formula 2 Championships before joining the big boys last year.

He was driving for Sauber and finished in the points 10 times in total. Leclerc’s performance inevitably attracted the attention of some of the best teams on the circuit, and he will be driving for Ferrari in 2019.

The performance of the Monegasque in the tests so far is quite solid. He looks extremely mature for his age of only 21 years. We’ve seen many young drivers with speed, but Leclerc adds consistency on top of that, which are the ingredients of a future champion.

At this point, the new Ferrari driver looks destined to eventually win a Formula 1 Championship. It might be a bit early for that, though.

Leclerc is extremely talented, and he will be in one of the best cars in 2019. I’m certain that he will win multiple races. The price for him to become the F1 champion is +450, and it’s tempting, but I don’t think he’s quite ready.

I expect Leclerc to learn a lot and gain invaluable experience that will help him win many races in the near future.

Max Verstappen +900

Another guy that looks like a future world champion is Max Verstappen. The young Dutchman looked like he went backward at the start of 2018 after a couple of wild crashes and mistakes on his side. The incidents served as a wake-up call, and we saw a completely different Verstappen in the second part of the season.

He was among the most consistent drivers, and many believe only Hamilton performed better. Despite the fact that his Red Bull was significantly limited compared to Mercedes and Ferrari, Verstappen was almost able to catch Kimi Raikkonen.

The youngster even won two races and showed newfound maturity that will certainly benefit his 2019 campaign.

The big question here is what happens with Red Bull this season? The team will start its partnership with Honda, and there are a lot of question marks over the reliability and power of their engines.

Despite putting a lot of miles in testing and Red Bull’s claims, I don’t expect to see the team in contention against the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes. This will harm Verstappen’s chances, and he will struggle at times.

Under such circumstances, I feel that the price of +900 for Max to win the F1 Drivers’ Championship is fair and contains no value.

F1 Drivers’ Championship Predictions and Pick

I will skip the analysis of the rest of the drivers on the circuit. With all due respect, I don’t think any of them has a chance, even Valtteri Bottas. The Fin is a good driver, but he lacks the hunger of great champions like Hamilton and Vettel.

Since I mentioned those two, it seems like it will be between them once again. The price for Vettel is better, and many believe Ferrari currently has a slight advantage over Mercedes.

And yet, Lewis Hamilton had been better than ever in 2018, and Mercedes certainly knows how to improve the car throughout the season. This is why I think the best option here would be to back Lewis Hamilton once again.

The price offered by BetOnline is +110 and is good enough for me. It’s curious that Vettel is available at +175, so you can actually combine those two and guarantee profits if one of them wins. It’s a tempting opportunity for those of you who want a safer approach.

PICKLewis Hamilton+110

F1 Constructors’ Championship Betting 2019

With the drivers out of the way, it’s time to take a closer look at the F1 Constructors’ Championship odds for 2019. The early signs are that this season will be closer than ever, and we might actually see the end of Mercedes’ dominion.

Mercedes -120

The logical favorite in the 2019 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship is Mercedes. The team has won the titles every single time since 2014, but the dominance of the Germans might be coming to an end.

In 2018, they had the lowest number of points, and the gap to the second team, Ferrari, was the lowest compared to the four championships before that. One could argue that the Italian organization had the better car for most of the races, but some poor strategic decisions and mistakes by the drivers left Mercedes off the hook.

And yet, there’s another angle to that, and it’s related to the consistency of the German team. The car stayed both fast and reliable throughout the year, and Lewis Hamilton was fantastic. Valtteri Bottas did contribute a decent number of points as well, especially early on.

We could expect more of the same in 2019, and I’m certain that Mercedes will win plenty of races and stay competitive throughout the season. However, the battle of Ferrari will be close, and I don’t think there will be that many gifts this year.

This is why the price of -120 for Mercedes to win the Constructors’ Championship is far too low for my taste. I don’t think it contains any value, so I will pass, and you should probably do the same.

Ferrari +140

2018 was extremely disappointing for Ferrari, but there were some silver linings. The team did a hell of a job to provide a car that can compete and is even faster than Mercedes on many F1 tracks.

According to many specialists, the team is even stronger now and should be faster than its main rival at the start of the season. I’m not so sure about that, as all teams are trying to sandbag at least a little and hide the true state of their development.

Sure, Ferrari seems like the fastest car out there, but they’ve had some performance issues here and there. This was a problem in 2018, too, so they have to make sure to solve it sooner rather than later.

With the questionable move of Kimi Raikkonen to Alfa Romeo, Ferrari has found a possible advantage in young driver Charles Leclerc. He might be younger than Raikkonen, but the Monegasque’s consistency during his debut season was remarkable.

I honestly feel he could be involved in many podiums in 2019, and I expect him to outscore Valtteri Bottas with ease. This will boost Ferrari’s chances to win the championship, and the price of +140 seems great to me.

Red Bull +550

If there is a third team that might, just might, be involved in the 2019 F1 Constructors’ Championship, it’s certainly Red Bull. The Austrian has been somewhat close behind the two leading organizations and has solid drivers in Max Verstappen and Pierre Gasly.

The problem is that Red Bull is currently a toss-up because the team has switched power suppliers this year from Renault to Honda, the latter of which made waves in 2017 when they were dropped by McLaren for reliability issues and lack of power. We rarely see such huge changes kick off instantly, and despite some encouraging early tests, I expect Red Bull to struggle.

The team might have the speed to compete on certain tracks, but their consistency and reliability won’t be at the same level as Ferrari and Mercedes.

This is why the price of +550 is simply not worth it. I don’t think that Red Bull will stay in the fight for long.

F1 Constructors’ Championship Predictions and Pick

The 2019 F1 Constructors’ Championship will obviously be a two-horse race between Mercedes and Ferrari. As it stands, I feel that the cars of both teams will be on a similar level over the course of the year.

There will be tracks where one of the teams has an advantage, but it should be rather tight in general, which leads me to the idea that the strategies and the drivers will decide the title.

Lewis Hamilton will probably earn slightly more points than Vettel, but I think that Leclerc will beat Bottas.

All things considered, I can’t really split Ferrari and Mercedes, so it’s a 50-50, in my opinion. This makes the choice easy because the odds for the Italian team to win are +140, and the price for their rival is only -120.

Ferrari is my final pick, and this is where I believe the value lies.


Final Words

I can’t wait for the Formula 1 season to start, and a lot of questions will be answered in the first couple of races. We will learn if Ferrari truly is ahead of the competition right now and if Red Bull can actually stay competitive.

What do you expect to happen, and do you agree with my picks? Let me know in the comments below.

Good luck, and remember to stick with trusted online sportsbooks when you’re placing your wagers.

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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