Predicting the First EPL Manager Fired in 2022-23

By Ben Morris in Soccer
| July 19, 2022 7:48 am PDT
EPL Managers Fired, Ralph Hasenhuttl, Jesse Marsch, Frank Lampard

Which Premier League manager will get sacked first next season? This question invariably pops up before the beginning of every EPL campaign.

We all know England’s top-flight soccer league is stacked with world-class players but it is also full of ruthless club owners. As a result, managers often pay the price when on-field results start to go south.

Last season, Watford parted ways with Xisco Munoz after less than two months. Across the course of the previous campaign, a total of ten managers lost their jobs. That tells you everything you need to know about the cut-throat nature of the league.

Thanks to the best Premier League betting sites, the odds for the first EPL manager fired in 2022-23 have landed. With the new season set to kick off on August 5, it’s time to make your predictions.

Let’s start by checking out the bookies’ prices. I will then analyze all the top contenders and outsiders before providing my prediction for which Premier League manager will be fired first in 2022-23.

Odds for First EPL Manager Sacked in 2022-23

Southampton’s Ralph Hasenhuttl (5.50) is the bookies’ early frontrunner in the 2022-23 Premier League sack race. Although the Austrian is widely regarded as a good coach, his team has failed to live up to expectations in recent seasons.

Leeds United’s Jesse Marsch (7.00) and Everton’s Frank Lampard (7.50) are also among the favorites. Lampard and Marsch are still relatively new to their roles, having been appointed in January and February, respectively.

Other Premier League managers that could get sacked first in 2022-23 include Marco Silva (8.00) and Brendan Rodgers (8.50). Silva manages newly-promoted Fulham, while Rodgers manages Leicester City.

In truth, plenty of EPL managers are at risk of being fired first next season. Scott Paker, Eddie Howe, and Bruno Lage are all priced at 11.00, with Patrick Vieira, Thomas Tuchel, and Mikel Arteta at 15.00.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola are out of harm’s way at 67.00. As the odds for the first EPL manager fired in 2022-23 suggest, Klopp and Guardiola’s jobs are practically safe.

So, who will be the first Premier League manager sacked next season? Before we take a closer look at the bookies’ favorites, make sure to head to the top soccer sportsbooks to place your bets on the odds for first EPL manager fired.

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Why Is Hasenhuttl Favored to Be Fired First Next Season?

  • Odds: 5.50
  • Club: Southampton
  • Joined Club: 2018
  • Last Season: 15th

I’m not surprised that many of the best UK betting sites expect Hasenhuttl to be the first Premier League manager fired in 2022-23.

Six months after the Austrian’s appointment, the Saints finished 16th in the 2018-19 table. Granted, they climbed to 11th place in 2019-20. But they head into the new campaign on the back of two straight 15th-place finishes.

That means Hasenhuttl has led Southampton to three bottom-five finishes in four seasons. It is rare that an EPL manager is given that much leeway.

Games Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against GD Win %
158 55 38 65 216 256 -40 34.81

As the table above details, Hasenhuttl’s record as Southampton manager is not pretty. Having registered 55 wins, 38 draws, and 65 losses, the former RB Leipzig boss has a win rate of just 34.81%. The -40 goal difference is also a major cause for concern.

The Saints finished the previous campaign in dreadful form, winning just one of their final 12 EPL games. After ending the season on a four-game losing streak, many believed that Hasenhuttl would be relieved of his duties. However, he kept his job.

If the Saints pick up where they left off last season, the Southampton hierarchy will have little choice but to part ways with Hasenhuttl.

Will Marsch Be the First EPL Manager Sacked in 2022-23?

  • Odds: 7.00
  • Club: Leeds United
  • Joined Club: 2022
  • Last Season: 17th

When in February, Marsch was handed the seemingly impossible task of replacing the godlike figure who ended Leeds United’s 16-year absence from the Premier League.

Given Bielsa’s status among the Leeds fanbase, Marsch was not a popular figure when he arrived at Elland Road. Nevertheless, the Americans managed to save the club from relegation.

Across the final 12 games of the 2021-22 campaign, Marsch oversaw four wins, three draws, and five losses. Thanks to a last-gasp victory over Brentford on Matchday 38, Leeds finished one place and three points clear of the relegation zone.

However, the new season will bring even more challenges for Marsch. As one of the lowest-ranked teams in the EPL, Leeds looks destined to endure another difficult campaign. Again, relegation is a real possibility.

Time will tell whether Marsch is up to the task. If Leeds makes a solid start to the season, the manager will be fine. But he could be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2022-23 if his team fails to hit the ground running.

Bob Bradley is the only other American to have managed in the Premier League – and he lasted just 85 days before getting fired. Hopefully, Marsch won’t follow in his countryman’s footsteps and become one of the worst EPL managers of all time.

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Could Lampard Be the First EPL Manager Fired Next Season?

  • Odds: 7.50
  • Club: Everton
  • Joined Club: 2022
  • Last Season: 16th

In all honesty, I’m still trying to figure out whether or not Lampard is – or can become – a top manager.

There is no doubting Lampard’s ability as a player, of course. Having won three Premier League titles and scored countless goals across his career, the Chelsea legend is undoubtedly one of the greatest players in EPL history.

That said, his managerial record is nothing to write home about. Following difficult spells at Derby County and Chelsea, the 44-year-old was tasked with keeping Everton in the Premier League last season.

When Lampard arrived at Goodison Park in January, the Toffees were in 16th place. Despite dropping as low as 18th place in April, they managed to avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth.

So far, Lampard has registered eight wins, two draws, and 11 losses as Everton manager – meaning he has a win rate of 38.10%. It goes without saying that he will need to improve that record in 2022-23 – and fast!

David Moyes managed Everton for more than a decade between 2002 and 2013. Since Moyes’ departure, the club has appointed seven permanent managers and four interim managers in less than ten years.

If Everton’s recent managerial history is anything to go by, Lampard won’t be given much time to transform the Toffees.

Other Premier League Managers That Could Get Sacked First in 2022-23

While Hasenhuttl, Marsch, and Lampard lead the bookies’ 2022-23 Premier League sack race odds, plenty of other EPL managers are at risk of being fired first next season.

Let’s look at the other likely contenders, who are priced between 8.00 and 11.00.

Marco Silva (8.00)

Fulham dominated the Championship last term, scoring 106 goals before winning the title. Still, it is worth remembering that the London club has suffered relegation from the Premier League in two of the past four seasons.

Managers of newly-promoted teams are always in danger of losing their job early in the EPL season. If Fulham struggles at the beginning of the campaign, don’t be surprised if Marco Silva bears the brunt of the owner’s frustration.

Brendan Rodgers (8.50)

Although Brendan Rodgers is among the bookies’ Premier League sack race favorites, I can’t see him being the first EPL manager fired in 2022-23.

Granted, Leicester endured a below-par 2021-22 campaign – finishing in 8th place. But having secured back-to-back 5th-place finishes in 2019-20 and 2020-21, Rodgers is more than capable of revitalizing the Foxes next season.

Scott Parker (11.00)

Like Marco Silva, Scott Parker manages a newly-promoted side. Naturally, that puts Parker among the Premier League managers that could get sacked first next season.

Funnily enough, Parker was Fulham’s manager when the club suffered relegation from the EPL in 2020-21. The up-and-coming coach bounced straight back with Bournemouth, but there are still plenty of doubts about his ability to manage in the top tier.

Eddie Howe (11.00)

Big things are expected of Newcastle United in 2022-23. As a result, there is pressure on Eddie Howe to take the team to the next level. Let’s not forget that Newcastle now has the richest club owners in world soccer.

Howe transformed the Magpies last term, guiding them away from relegation trouble and into mid-table safety. But if the 44-year-old fails to build on the foundations that he set, he could find himself looking for a new job.

The 2022-23 Premier League title odds suggest that Newcastle is the biggest threat to the traditional “Big Six.” Consequently, Howe will be under even more pressure to succeed.

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Bruno Lage (11.00)

Bruno Lage made an eye-catching start to life at Wolves, losing just eight of his first 24 games as an EPL manager. However, the Wanderers fell off a cliff towards the end of last season – losing nine of their final 14 games.

Wolves ended the previous campaign on a seven-game winless run, recording two draws and six defeats in the process. If they pick up where they left off last season, Lage could become the first Premier League manager sacked in 2022-23.

Games Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against GD Win %
42 17 7 18 47 46 +1 40.48

High-Profile EPL Managers at Risk of Being Fired Next Season

Due to the merciless nature of the Premier League, no manager is completely safe. Okay, maybe Klopp and Guardiola. But even managers of the highest-ranked clubs are only a handful of bad results away from losing their job.

With that in mind, it only makes sense to look at the top Premier League managers that could get sacked first next season. Priced between 15.00 and 34.00, the following managers are definitely worth considering.

Thomas Tuchel (15.00)

Earlier this year, my colleague, Zarko Naric, ranked Thomas Tuchel at #4 on his list of the world’s best soccer managers in 2022. There is no denying that Tuchel is among the top managers on the planet, but that doesn’t say that his job as Chelsea boss is 100% safe.

The Blues head into the 2022-23 campaign under new ownership, having been taken over by American businessman Todd Boehly. At this stage, nobody is quite sure how Boehly will take to his new role.

After winning the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League, Chelsea finished 3rd in the Premier League last season. If the team’s high standards begin to slip in the coming months, Tuchel could pay the price.

Mikel Arteta (15.00)

Arsenal could – and probably should – have secured Champions League soccer last season. The Gunners spent a large portion of the previous campaign in the top four, but they ended up finishing two points shy of the UCL places after losing six of their final 12 games.

Ultimately, Mikel Arteta failed in his quest to get Arsenal back into the Champions League. The Spaniard is already walking on thin ice – and the ice could break if the Gunners make a bad start to the 2022-23 season.

Erik ten Hag (34.00)

Could Erik ten Hag really be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2022-23? I know it may seem like a crazy idea, but Manchester United is a crazy club at the moment.

The Dutchman only arrived at Old Trafford in May, meaning he is the newest manager in the Premier League. But since Man Utd is widely regarded as the biggest soccer club in the world, he is already among the EPL managers at risk of being fired.

The Red Devils have appointed five permanent managers and three interim managers since Alex Ferguson ended his 26-year reign in 2013. This suggests that ten Hag won’t be afforded much time to get things right.

Predicting Which EPL Manager Will Get Sacked First in 2022-23

So, which Premier League manager will get fired first next season?

As things stand, Ralph Hasenhuttl is the bookies’ favorite to be the first EPL manager sacked in 2022-23. However, I can see the Saints sticking with their boss for the foreseeable future.

The Saints won just one of their final 12 games last season, suffering nine defeats along the way. If the powers that be wanted to fire Hasenhuttl, they would have pulled the trigger at the end of the previous campaign.

Therefore, I’m steering clear of Hasenhuttl and backing Leeds United’s Jesse Marsch as the first managerial casualty of the 2022-23 Premier League season.

Despite saving Leeds from relegation last term, Marsch has yet to prove himself in the EPL. The club’s owners were not afraid to fire Bielsa, so they won’t think twice about parting ways with Marsch if the team makes a bad start to the new campaign.

It is also worth noting that Marsch will be without two pivotal players next season. Following Raphinha’s transfer to Barcelona and Kalvin Phillips’ move to Manchester City, Leeds looks destined to struggle.

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