Federated Auto Parts 400 DFS Picks to Target on Saturday, September 12th, 2020
For the second week in a row, you did alright if you went with my NASCAR DFS picks. Last week’s lineup for the Cook Out Southern 500 did better than the previous week’s squad, however, as it totaled 362.50 fantasy points.
That was good for a tie for 8th place in the GPP I entered and was just 17 fantasy points out of the lead.
The hope is to keep delivering winners, and I’ll certainly aim to please again this week when we get to enter NASCAR DFS lineups for the Federated Auto Parts 400.
To help, let’s take a look at three of my favorite NASCAR DFS picks, as well as my favorite lineup.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10.9k)
Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are tied for the best odds to win this race per the top NASCAR sportsbooks, and I tend to think one of them will.
Harvick won last week, though, so maybe it’s Truex’s turn. He won this very event in 2019, and could be poised for a huge bounce-back after finishing 22nd last weekend.
Martin Truex Jr. leads my model for Richmond.— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) September 7, 2020
Drivers with a model rating within a half position of Truex's since start of last year: 13 races, 6 wins, 9 top-5s, 12 top-10s.
Truex had otherwise been sensational on the year. He only has one win, but he’s cracked the top-10 19 different times, and has now finished in the top-5 in eight of his last nine runs.
I think Truex Jr. gets back to the winner’s circle and repeats as champ here. He gives us a little savings when compared to Harvick or Denny Hamlin, and he also offers a little more wiggle room coming out of the 14th slot.
Michael McDowell ($5.4k)
Here’s my favorite punt for the weekend. Things are different this year with this event in mind, but we can still lean on course history, as well as recent form.
Oh, and McDowell is cheap as heck, and let’s me get the drivers I want.
McDowell is running well at the moment. He’s got two top-16 performances in his last two races, and he’s flashed top-10 upside four times on the year. He’s also done pretty well in this event, finishing 21st, 24th, 16th, and 12th in his last four tries.
Is the solid form here to stay? Can we really bank on past production? Who knows, but he’s dirt cheap and he’s probably going to smash this salary.
Brad Keselowski ($10.1k)
There are a lot of great drivers to back, but few have winning upside, and are as consistent as Keselowski.
The guy has three victories on the season, has 21 finishes inside the top-10, and hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August 9th.
He’s also torn it up at Richmond. He won in 2014, but he’s been in the mix to win again ever since. Over his last five Federated Auto Parts 400 runs, he’s finished 4th, 9th, 11th, 4th, and 8th.
Keselowski really doesn’t need some ringing endorsement. However, he’s disappointed (10th and 11th) in his last two races, and he’s expensive. If that drops his ownership slightly, I’m on board 100%.
My Favorite NASCAR DFS Lineup for September 12th
- Martin Truex Jr. ($10.9k)
- Joey Logano ($9.3k)
- Michael McDowell ($5.4k)
- Daniel Suarez ($5.6k)
- Brad Keselowski ($10.1k)
- Jimmie Johnson ($8.7k)
To fill out my Federated Auto Parts 400 DFS picks, I’m also punting with Suarez, and I’m grabbing some nice stability via Logano and Johnson.
Logano has never won this race, but he’s come extremely close. He finished runner-up back in 2017, and he’s been very competitive here, ending 11th, 14th, 2nd, 10th, 3rd, and 6th dating back to 2014.
He’s also been fantastic on the year, as he’s nabbed three wins and cracked the top-10 18 times. Starting up front gives him very little wiggle room, but we know what he’s capable of.
The same goes for Jimmie Johnson, who won back-to-back races here in 2007 and 2008. He hasn’t won since, but Johnson has still given it a go with nine top-11 finishes ever since.
Johnson hasn’t been amazing in his last two races, but he still has top-10 upside and at the 18th spot, gives us a little room for error.
Suarez is my big punt to go with McDowell. He’s obviously a risky play, but he has the potential to crush this price tag. He starts in the 28th slot, which obviously makes him appealing, and he’s dirt cheap.
Oh, and he’s been very good at Richmond.
The 28-year old can easily flop, but in three prior runs in this event, he’s finished 7th, 17th, and 9th. I don’t even know if I expect him to be quite that good, but if past history is any indication, he could be an elite value pick.
More than anything, he makes everything work.
That does it for my favorite NASCAR DFS picks for this weekend. If you want a little help from the betting side of things, check out this week’s NASCAR betting picks.