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Farmers Insurance Open Preview – Will Tiger and Rory Contend at Torrey Pines?

| January 20, 2020 10:21 pm PDT
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview - PGA Tour Odds and Predictions

Tiger Woods is scheduled to make his PGA Tour season debut this week in La Jolla at the Farmers Insurance Open. Likewise, Rory McIlroy is set to tee it up in for the first time since Thanksgiving, not to mention we’ll see Jason Day in competition for the first time since he missed the cut at Mayakoba.

I won’t have the privilege of working the locker room at this event as I have in the past, but that hasn’t deterred me from breaking down the action. The betting odds are out, and DraftKings is hosting some massive tournaments.

My 2020 Farmers Insurance Open betting preview will highlight the following markets.

  • Odds
  • Sleepers
  • Winner Prediction
  • Matchup Picks
  • DFS/Lineup Advice for DraftKings

Also, this guide to the South Course at Torrey Pines might pique your interest.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been able to capitalize on discrepancies and net a solid profit, so let’s try and keep the train moving in the right direction. 

2020 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Some of the top golf betting sites installed Rory as the favorite at +600, although he’s sitting at just +500 to win at BetOnline (displayed below). With so many world-class players in San Diego this week, you’ll notice some favorable pricing as you start sifting through the numbers.

Who Offers Value?

When I saw that Marc Leishman was sitting at +5000 to win the Farmers Insurance Open, I almost did a double-take. The 36-year-old Aussie didn’t play great in San Diego in 2019 (T-43rd), but he finished 8th here in 2018 and 20th in 2017.

And let’s not forget that Marc lost in a playoff at the 2014 Farmers Insurance Open.

Leishman took last week off and should be well-rested, and he should be motivated after seeing a fellow countryman prevail at the Sony Open. Perhaps the best part about his alluring line is that we can capture some serious upside without risking a lot of money.

A Farmers Insurance Open Sleeper to Consider

If you like Cameron Champ at +6600 this week, you’re going to love him at +7000 over at MyBookie. After getting off to a slow start last week in the desert, the bomber played bogey-free golf over the weekend en route to finishing in 21st place. Also worth noting, Champ ended the American Express ranked 2nd in GIR and 7th in total birdies made.

Riding the theory that Cameron garnered some confidence over the final 36 holes in La Quinta, I’ll be taking a stab that he finds the winner’s circle at Torrey Pines.

My Betting Pick to Win the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open

After coming oh-so-close to correctly pegging Abraham Ancer to win last week (at +4000), I’ll stay on theme and target another up-and-coming International star.

Sungjae Im is going to win this season. It’s only a matter of when and where.

The 2018/2019 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is fresh off shooting 18-under-par (T-10th) at PGA West, but the fact that he finished 3rd in putts per GIR is what really stands out. Few guys strike the ball as consistently solid as Sungjae does, which bodes really well at a layout that puts a premium on ball striking.

Currently slotted 7th in the FedEx Cup Points standings, I’m predicting Im makes a giant leap this Sunday.

Pick
  • Sungjae Im
    +2800

Farmers Insurance Open Matchup Picks to Target

As I’ve consistently stated, betting golf matchups is going to give you your best opportunity to turn a profit week in and week out. To take that a step further, going after the “plus-money” head-to-heads is the best way to stay ahead of the juice.

Patrick Reed vs. Sungjae Im

Patrick Reed -135
Sungjae Im +115

I’ll keep this short and sweet. I would have been thrilled to back Sungjae Im vs. Patrick Reed at even money. The fact that XBet let me grab hold of Im at +115 had me enthralled. Reed missed the cut at the Sony Open and has never finished better than 13th at Torrey Pines.

On the other hand, Im hasn’t missed a cut since July and is quickly turning into a phenomenal player. Basically, there’s no way I’m going to ignore the value attached to Sungjae in this spot.

Pick
  • Sungjae Im
    +115

Xander Schauffele vs. Hideki Matsuyama

Xander Schauffele -125
Hideki Matsuyama +105

It’s hard for me to bet against Xander Schauffele in any situation, but this is a unique scenario. As stellar as Xander has been during his young career, the South Course at Torrey Pines hasn’t been too friendly to him. Schauffele missed the cut in his first three appearances at his hometown event and tied for 25th in 2019.

Flip the coin and you’ll see Hideki has fared extremely well at this layout. (3rd in 2019, 12th in 2018). Matsuyama has done everything but win over the last few months, and nothing suggests his solid play will slow down.

Pick
  • Hideki Matsuyama
    +105

Harris English vs. Russell Knox

Harris English -125
Russell Knox +105

Harris English burst out of the gates in the fall portion of the season, but he’s hit a rough patch over his last two starts. English missed the cut at the RSM Classic and tied for 48th last week in La Quinta. I’m fully aware that Harris has performed favorably at this venue before, but I also know he missed the cut in the 2019 edition.

Russell Knox hasn’t done anything special as of late, but he’s connected on nine consecutive cuts and ranks 22nd on the PGA Tour in GIR. Knox finds himself #111 in the world rankings while Harris clocks in at #199.

Taking all of this into account, I’m captivated by the idea of investing in Russell with the bookies laying the juice. In other words, go ahead and sign me up!

Pick
  • Russell Knox
    +105

Farmers Insurance Open DFS Advice for DraftKings

Playing DFS golf at DraftKings can always be beneficial, but this week, in particular, stands out. Imagine spending five bucks to enter a lineup of six golfers, and the winner’s take was $100,000.

Well, you no longer have to imagine thanks to the PGA Tour King of the Pines GPP. Follow along as I highlight the golfers you should be targeting.

  • Top-Tier = Players priced at $9k and up
  • Mid-Tier = Players priced from $7,500 to $8,900
  • Low-Tier = Players priced from $6,000 to $7,400

Thanks to a handful of world-beaters being present and accounted for, we have some dependable names available at a discount. 

Justin Rose – $10,300

We haven’t seen Justin Rose on the PGA Tour since the WGC in Shanghai in early November, so some may approach “Rosy” with caution at Torrey Pines. I wonder if those same people know that Justin finished runner-up this past week at the SMBS Singapore Open. Surely they remember that Rose won the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Rather than anchor your lineup around Rory, Rahm, or Tiger, opting for Rose as your lead dog will give you a chance to stand out.

Xander Schauffele – $10,100

Xander Schauffele tends to rise to the occasion, and he should be a perfect fit at the South Course. The San Diego native and former Aztec golfer has no weaknesses to speak of, meaning he won’t get exposed like so many others will around the devastatingly tough layout.

Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900

Matsuyama finished 3rd at the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open and 12th the year before. Speaking of finishing 12th in a golf tournament, Hideki hasn’t placed outside of the top 12 in any of his last five events. In fact, the Japanese sensation has finished 16th or better in nine of his last ten starts, so there’s hardly any versions of him disappointing this week.

Sungjae Im – $9,100

Although we can go ahead and pencil Sungjae Im in for a top 25 right now, I think he could perform even better. The only knock on the 21-year-old’s game is the fact that he can be a streaky putter, but as I pointed out in my “predicting a winner” segment, Im found a grove with his flat stick last week. Landing on page one of the leaderboard almost seems imminent at this point. 

Scottie Scheffler – $8,800

Scottie Scheffler apparently hasn’t needed any time getting used to life on the PGA Tour. All Scheffler has done since earning his card at the end of the summer is rack up four top 10s and more than $1.3 million in earnings. After finishing solo third a week ago, he’ll be hungry to get right back in contention.

Lanto Griffin – $7,900

Looking for a fast riser in the Official World Golf Ranking? How about PGA Tour rookie Lanto Griffin, the winner of the Houston Open back in October? Lanto has proven to be the opposite of a one-hit wonder, amassing eight top 25s in ten starts thus far. Expect him to continue his good play in La Jolla.

Cameron Champ – $7,800

Cameron Champ is a boom or bust play who is ideal for GPPs this week. Cameron appears to be trending in the right direction coming off a terrific weekend, and his length will be a huge advantage at both the North and South Courses. If Champ gets the putter rolling and can keep his emotions in check, victory #3 could very well be in store.

Bud Cauley – $7,600

It’s always good to try and locate the golfers who played at this tournament the year before, as well as played well the week prior. Enter Bud Cauley.

Bud shot 20-under par and finished 4th at the Desert Classic, coupled with a 13th-place showing at the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Let the casual fans roster Bubba and Phil at $7,500. You are much better off rolling with Cauley.

Denny McCarthy – $7,100

Denny McCarthy teased us last week with stretches of good play, but he made too many big numbers to deliver top-tier value. Now that his price has plummeted $500 and his ownership will be down, it’s the perfect time to pounce.

Cameron Davis – $7,000

Nothing about Cameron Davis’ 29th-place showing at the American Express is going to stand out unless you look underneath the hood. If you dig into the stats, you’ll find that the 6’4” 24-year-old ended the week 2nd in strokes gained: around the green, 3rd in driving distance, and 7th in birdies made.

This kid has all sorts of talent, and it’s evident he arrives in really good form. In Cameron’s two previous starts before last week, he finished 9th (Sony Open) and 3rd (Australian PGA Championship).

Tom Hoge – $6,900

I’m expecting Sepp Straka to be clicked on a whole bunch at $6,900, which is why I prefer a pivot to Tom Hoge. It’s rare that DK would install a guy who finished 12th and 6th respectively over the last two weeks at under $7k, but that’s exactly the case here. Hoge has shot 71 or lower in 10 consecutive rounds.

My Lineup in GPPs for the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open   

  • Justin Rose $10,300
  • Sungjae Im $9,100
  • Scottie Scheffler $8,800
  • Bud Cauley $7,600
  • Denny McCarthy $7,100
  • Cameron Davis $7,000

Going Away

Are you ready to fire some wagers in or what?

Whether that’s betting on a Farmers Insurance Open sleeper to hoist the trophy or tossing a handful of lineups into the biggest GPPs on DraftKings, hopefully this PGA Tour preview helped lay the foundation.

Those who are craving more golf betting online, stay tuned and follow our golf blog. An Omega Dubai Desert Classic betting preview is on its way next.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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