English Premier League Betting Picks for September 29th – October 1st

| September 27, 2018 12:00 am PDT
EPL Predictions and Betting Picks

The last batch of English Premier League picks was a mixed bag. I probably overestimated Fulham a bit, as the side didn’t manage to beat Watford at home.

The game ended 1-1, but it was a tale of two halves. The visitors opened the scoring and should’ve closed the match before the interval, while Fulham equalized and could’ve won it at the end. The good news is that Burnley put four goals past Bournemouth, so the over 2.5 goals line was covered with ease at the end.

The final result of the weekend was one bet won and one lost, for a slight profit. While this is not ideal, it is still acceptable, especially if you consider how well the season has started.

It’s time to move on to the next EPL weekend. As always, I will check the odds offered by the best betting sites and share my free picks for this matchday.

West Ham vs. Manchester United

Let’s start with the main betting markets offered for this game.

West Ham to Win4.20
Draw3.40
Manchester United to Win1.83
Over 2.50 Goals1.85
Under 2.50 Goals1.98

I’m a bit surprised by the price for Manchester United to win. The short-term trends are quite different for both clubs, as the Red Devils failed to win at home against Wolves last time around and were dumped from the Carabao Cup by Derby County at Old Trafford.

This certainly increases the pressure on Jose Mourinho and his squad. The Portuguese will be furious with the performances of most players who received the chance to impress him.

At the same time, West Ham finally managed to win a game in the English Premier League, beating Everton two weeks ago. The good performance continued after the side was the first team not to lose against Chelsea in the last round of the EPL.

The other popular betting market seems more balanced. The line of 2.50 goals makes sense, and I would say that the odds are pretty fair.

West Ham

The Hammers had a terrible start in the English Premier League, losing all of their first four games in the competition. I would say that the side didn’t play that bad; it was simply one of those runs when nothing goes your way.

Fortunately for all West Ham fans, the side managed to recover and start winning points. The impressive victory away at Everton was followed by a respectable point against a strong Chelsea team at home.

The supporters probably won’t be ecstatic about the negative tactics employed by Pellegrini against Chelsea, but West Ham earned a point against the leader in the league.

This performance should give the Hammers enough confidence that they could get something from the game against Manchester United, who are having all sorts of problems.

The big question is if Pellegrini will get the tactics right. West Ham played with plenty of men behind the ball and defended deep against Chelsea. Such an approach worked well, as the Blues have some issues finding goals once Eden Hazard is neutralized.

This is their main weakness, but Manchester United is an entirely different opponent. If the manager decides to play in the same way, he risks missing out on the opportunity to pressure the shaky defense of the Red Devils.

I feel that Pellegrini will pick a more balanced approach and try to create more opportunities, especially since Marko Arnautovic is expected to return from injury. This is one of the most crucial factors in this game, as the big man is the main threat West Ham has right now, especially since the likes of Andy Carroll, Manuel Lanzini, and Javier Hernandez are still injured.

If Arnautovic is out from this match, I expect the Hammers to defend deep and try to hit the opponent on the counter. Either way, they should have a solid chance to at least draw this game against a Manchester United team that is far from its best.

Manchester United

For a moment, it looked like the problems were behind Manchester United and Mourinho would be getting a break. The shaky start of the season was followed by three wins in a row, against Burnley, Watford, and Young Boys.

Many expected that this could open the door for a solid streak of results, but the team failed to win against Wolves at home last week and was knocked out of the Carabao Cup by Derby Country on Tuesday.

As a result, the atmosphere at Old Trafford is once again intense, and all the issues that showed their ugly head at the start of the season are back. According to the rumors, Paul Pogba wants out, Alexis Sanchez is nowhere to be seen, and the defense simply can’t cope.

Nothing seems to be working right now. We’ve been over this recently, but Mourinho has to find a working solution for the defense.

Without stability at the back, Manchester United will struggle to mount a genuine title challenge, and even a spot in the top 4 might be out of the question.

It’s worth noting that the Red Devils currently have no excuses. There are almost no injuries in the squad, so Mourinho can rely on pretty much every player he has. Despite his moaning about the lack of signings, this group is not that bad.

The Portuguese manager simply seems lost. He can’t work with younger players like Martial and Rashford, stars like Sanchez and Pogba look lost, and there isn’t a single member of this team that is playing at his best.

The only explanation is that the manager is struggling to motivate his players and get the best out of them. Mourinho needs to change this fast, or he risks losing his job sooner or later.

Betting Pick and Prediction

You probably know where I’m heading at this point. The troubled Manchester United will have to face a solid West Ham side that has regained some confidence recently. If Marko Arnautovic is fit, I would even suggest that placing a wager for the Hammers to win at 4.20 is a solid opportunity.

Still, I prefer the more balanced approach here. The Asian handicap is set at +0.5 goals for the Hammers, which is available at the price of 2.00 at BetOnline. This seems like the best option for me, even if Arnautovic doesn’t make it. A 2-1 win for the Hammers with him in the lineup or a 1-1 look like the logical correct score predictions.

The only thing that concerns me is that Manchester United won its last 3 games away from home. We might be witnessing a scenario in which the pressure of the home crowd is actually harming the team’s performance.

I’ve seen that before – for example, in the 2016-2017 Arsenal season. The Gunners played much better away from the Emirates because the atmosphere was worse at their own stadium. I suspect this could be the case with Manchester United, but the bet is still worth the risk.

PICKWest Ham +0.5 AH 2.00

Newcastle vs. Leicester

Here are the betting odds the bookies offer on the mainstream markets for the EPL game.

Newcastle to Win2.43
Draw3.15
Leicester to Win2.93
Over 2.25 Goals1.89
Under 2.25 Goals1.98

On paper, this is a clash between a team that sits at the bottom of the table and a solid mid-table side. This is why the odds suggest a close game in which the home advantage balances things out and provide Newcastle with the slightest of advantages against Leicester. As you will see below, I don’t think that’s entirely correct.

The other popular market is set at 2.25 goals, which makes sense. The hosts rely mostly on their defense, while the Foxes are neither super prolific up front nor too leaky at the back. To be fair, I don’t think there is any value in the odds for this option; it seems quite balanced.

Newcastle United

The manager Rafa Benitez and the Newcastle supporters were disappointed by the passive transfer summer. Many believe this could lead to a relegation come May, and the start of the season seems terrible.

Newcastle sits at the bottom of the English Premier League with only two points after six games. This sounds terrible, but a deeper look shows a completely different picture. The four losses of the team were with a scoreline of 1-2 against Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Chelsea.

Basically, Newcastle was defeated only by top-6 teams and could’ve easily gotten something out of those matches.

Some poor finishing and bad luck were among the reasons why the Magpies don’t have a couple points more right now, but I don’t think anyone expects miracles against oppositions of such quality.

The other two games of the side were 0-0 draws against Cardiff and Crystal Palace away from home. I would say that’s not half bad either, so the points tally of Newcastle is a bit misleading.

A closer look shows a team that has a solid defense and is hard to break. Rafa Benitez managed to build a side that works hard and is well-organized at the back. The defense will be Newcastle’s main weapon, and I feel that teams like Leicester will struggle to find openings.

At the same time, the Magpies struggle to create many chances up front, but they did find the net a couple of times this season already. One of the issues is the injury of Salomon Rondon, who is doubtful for this match.

The side will rely on the likes of Joselu and Ayoze Perez to create and score goals. While they are not the most reliable attacking players out there, they could punish the likes of Leicester.

Leicester

If Newcastle’s record looks worse than the quality of the squad, I feel it’s exactly the opposite for Leicester. The team has won three matches so far. The last victory against Huddersfield was deserved, but that’s not the case with the first two.

The inability of Southampton and Wolves to score, combined with some luck, is the main reason Leicester has 9 points so far.

The team has been largely unconvincing in all aspects of the game. The defense of the Foxes allows the opponents to create too many chances, while the side struggles up front. If there’s one bright side, it’s the efficiency in front of goal.

Leicester may not have many opportunities to score, but the strikers of the side have been capable of finding the net when it matters the most.

The Leicester strikers will need to be at their clinical best against a Newcastle side that won’t leave many spaces behind. In fact, this looks like a tough match-up for Leicester, as the Magpies look like an uncomfortable opponent when it comes to the styles of the two sides.

Leicester relies on counter-attacks and opposition that keeps more of the ball, and I don’t think that will be the case against Newcastle.

Betting Pick and Prediction

I already mentioned that the under/over goals market doesn’t look promising, so I will pass that. Instead, I feel that the value lies in the odds for Newcastle to find the first win of the season.

The team’s bad start is more a result of the nightmare schedule. Facing four sides from the top 6 would negatively affect the results of any team, so I expect better days for Newcastle in the future.

The solid defense should be enough for the club to stay in the English Premier League, and games like this one are where I expect Benitez and his boys to collect a lot of points.

Still, going straight for the win might be a bit too risky. I prefer the 0 Asian handicap option that will return your stake if the game ends in a draw. The price of 1.77 seems high enough, so this is my final pick for this match.

As for the final score, I feel that something like 1-0 in favor of Newcastle makes the most sense.

PICKNewcastle +0 AH 1.77

Cardiff City vs. Burnley

And it’s time for the odds for the final game I will preview today.

Cardiff City to Win2.43
Draw 3.05
Burnley to Win3.05
Over 2 Goals1.88
Under 2 Goals1.93

It has been a tough start for both sides, as they struggled to perform and collect points. This is the main reason why the bookies see this game as a close one, where the home difference is the main reason why the odds for Cardiff City are a bit lower.

That surprises me, to be honest, as I feel the squad of Burnley is much stronger, and there were other reasons behind the slow start, but more on that later.

What doesn’t surprise me at all are the prices and the line for the over/under goals market. Both sides are having issues finding the net, so don’t expect many opportunities in this game, either. On the other hand, the defenses have been so leaky that you never know.

With that said, let’s take a closer look at each team.

Cardiff City

It’s probably getting boring to say the same thing every time I talk about Cardiff City, but this squad is bound to get relegated. If the manager, Neil Warnock, doesn’t perform a miracle somehow or if the club doesn’t sign at least a couple of players in the winter, the Welsh team will be in the Championship next season.

On the surface, the story of the season so far looks a bit like the one of Newcastle. Cardiff faced three top teams and lost against them all, while the points of the side came in 0-0 draws. However, a deeper look shows that the Welsh side barely had a chance to take something from the game against stronger opposition and conceded a total of twelve goals in three games.

If you add the loss against Bournemouth, and the fact that Cardiff twice failed to take advantage of games where the opponent had a player sent off, the situation looks dangerous.

Cardiff simply lacks the quality to compete, both at the back and up front.

As it stands, Cardiff has the tied worst defense AND offense in the league. The only other side that has comparable stats is Huddersfield, which is the other team that looks doomed.

Frankly, I fear for the Welsh side, and I don’t think the supporters will be happy with the events that lie ahead.

Burnley

The situation around Burnley doesn’t seem that different, as the side sits in the 16th position in the English Premier League, having won only four points in the opening six matches. On top of that, Burnley had a better schedule than Cardiff so far.

And yet, there is a crucial factor that played a role in the problems that Sean Dyche and his boys faced. Unlike the last two seasons, Burnley was involved in the Europa League. The side played in the qualifiers of the tournament, and the manager simply didn’t have the squad depth to stay competitive in the EPL.

I think that Burnley’s elimination from the Europa League was a blessing in disguise.

Once Burnley was out of Europe, we instantly saw a different team that trashed the solid Bournemouth side last weekend. I expect more of the same in the future, as the manager and his players have the potential for a mid-table finish.

They will improve quickly, and an opponent like Cardiff City represents a good opportunity to make up for some of the early woes.

Burnley’s defense should be able to contain Neil Warnock and his men, while the attacking players certainly have an increased confidence after putting four goals past Bournemouth.

Betting Pick and Prediction

I’m a bit tempted to go for the over 2 goals line, as I feel that Burnley alone could guarantee the push, at least. And yet, the price of 1.88 is not high enough for my taste, so I will look elsewhere.

I feel that Burnley is the better team, and the odds simply don’t reflect that because of the issues related to playing in the Europa League. The price of 3.05 for a win represents superb value, in my opinion.

Still, the team will probably need some time to find the best rhythm. This is why I will once again pick a safer option and go for Burnley +0.25 Asian handicap. The price of 1.77 is exceptional if you consider the fact that the draw will bring half of your stake, and the other half will still be a winner.

I expect Burnley to win with a 1 or 2 goals difference, but this safer route seems like the better option.

PICKBurnley +0.25 AH 1.77

Final Words

I have a good feeling about this week, but let’s see what happens.

If you are interested in the match between Chelsea and Liverpool, stay tuned, as I will release a detailed review of the big derby later this week. I feel that there are some opportunities to make money there, too.

Good luck!

Jerry Summer
Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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