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English Premier League Betting Picks for September 22nd – 23rd

| September 20, 2018 12:00 am PDT
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Last week was more than decent, as two of my English Premier League free picks were won, and only one was lost. The start of the season has been generous so far, and most of the results have been positive.

For a start, Bournemouth did a great job beating Leicester 4-2. My main concern was that the host would struggle in front of goal, but they managed to find the net four times out of five shots on target – quite the efficiency!

The other winning pick was the Chelsea victory. The Blues were far from their best against Cardiff at home, but the devastating form of Eden Hazard was enough to cover the -2 Asian Handicap.

The only disappointment came from the fact that I picked Watford not to lose against Manchester United instead of going for the over 2.5. The Red Devils had a solid game and won 2-1, so my wager was lost.

It’s now time to move on to the next round of English Premier League games and the next batch of free betting picks. Let’s hope this week is at least as good as the last one.

Fulham – Watford

Here are the main betting markets related to this match.

Fulham to Win2.39
Watford to Win2.97
Under 2.75 Goals1.94
Over 2.75 Goals1.88

Watford had an exceptional start of the season, but Fulham looks better with every game. This is the reason why the bookies see the game as one of the closest in this week of action in the English Premier League.

Still, I think the home advantage and Fulham’s attacking display are somewhat underestimated, but more about that later.

As for the goals market, I can totally see why BetOnline picked a higher line than the standard 2.5 goals. Both teams are more than capable of scoring, as well as conceding plenty of goals. It’s logical to expect three or more goals in this match.

Let’s take a closer look at each of the teams first.


The newcomer to the EPL did a great job strengthening the squad in the summer. Fulham now has enough quality and depth to secure a place in the league for the next campaign as well.

The beginning of this one wasn’t ideal; the side lost three out of its five games so far. However, two of the defeats came against strong opponents like Tottenham and Manchester City, so I wouldn’t draw too many consequences.

The games against Crystal Palace, Burnley, and Brighton are the ones that will give us more information about the team. Fulham lost the first one at the start of the season, then beat Burnley at home, before drawing away against Brighton.

I think that this team is getting better by the minute, as the new signings needed some time to gel.

As it stands, the likes of Mitrovic, Seri, and Schurrle look formidable. Those guys will score a lot of goals by the end of the season. The Serbian striker is even among the current EPL top scorers with four goals already!

I think that Fulham will be more than capable of creating a lot of chances against teams from the middle and the bottom of the table. Watford fits that description, so the hosts should be able to score some goals.

The biggest problem seems to be the defense. Fulham has conceded at least twice in every single game so far, which can be an issue against a Watford team who’s finding the net twice on average.


I was surprised by Watford, as the team managed to win the first four games in the English Premier League. It took a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Manchester United for the good streak to end.

Despite the solid results, I’m not convinced that Watford is that good of a team.

I would say that this is a side that has been inconsistent in the past couple of seasons, looking strong at times, while losing multiple games in a row in other moments.

The reason behind that is the lack of quality and the rather shaky defense. When the confidence of the team is high, Watford can beat anyone in the league, or at least give them a run for their money. Once the momentum is gone, the team looks woeful at times.

I’m not entirely sure what to expect against Fulham, as one loss shouldn’t be the reason for a collapse. However, I don’t think the Watford defense will be able to contain the opponent, while the attack should find some opportunities to score.

Betting Pick and Prediction

By this point, it is clear that I expect to see a lot of chances and most probably a decent number of goals in this clash. And yet, the prices for the over 2.75 goals market are not high enough to convince me that this is the way to go.

Instead, I’m going to back Fulham to win. The main reason behind that is the exceptional attacking unit of the Cottagers. It should be able to exploit the gaps left by the shaky Watford defense by creating a lot of chances and converting some of them.

Essentially, I expect both teams to have their chances, but I assume Fulham will simply have more and has the potential to score more. This is why a result like 2-1 or 3-1 for the home team would be my correct score prediction.

The price for the home win is 2.39, which is solid enough for me.

PICKFulham to Win2.39

Burnley – Bournemouth

Here’s what BetOnline offers when it comes to the mainstream markets related to this match.

Burnley to Win2.80
Bournemouth to Win2.54
50 Goals2.05
50 Goals1.80

On paper, this clash will see the fifth-best team in the league face the one at the bottom of the table. However, we all know that the gap between the two sides is not that big. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burnley finish higher than Bournemouth in the end.

The bookies also know that, so the close odds were to be expected. The home advantage balances the tie, so the price for both teams is pretty close.

What surprises me is the over/under line. Burnley has been leaking goals with such an ease in the first five games of the season that facing a Bournemouth side that’s more than capable of creating chances seems scary.

More on that later, though, after I provide my detailed thoughts on each of the teams.


Burnley has been a bright example of a club that is stable and progresses well. Hard work and smart management can make up for the lack of a big budget, as Sean Dyche and his boys have shown in the previous two seasons.

This is why many people will be asking themselves what happened with the club and why the team is in the last position in the league.

The main reason for the slow start of Burnley is the participation in the UEFA Europa League.

It’s hard to play twice a week, and Burnley simply doesn’t have the depth to play in Europe on Thursday and then in England on the weekend. This cost the team a lot effort, but Burnley was eliminated from the Europa League.

I think this will slowly help the side regain its confidence and start winning points in the English Premier League. The game against Bournemouth at home will be tough, though, and I’m not sure if Burnley will be able to win it.

The team desperately needs to get back to the basics that were the main reason behind its success in the past two seasons. If Burnley doesn’t manage to do it, Bournemouth is more than capable of punishing every mistake.


I love Eddie Howe and the work he has done for his club. Bournemouth has been trying to play an open and attractive soccer despite the lack of resource at the manager’s disposal. Such a style is usually reserved only for clubs that have a lot of quality players, but that’s not the case here.

Bournemouth is proof that you can play free-flowing soccer without the likes of David Silva, Mesut Ozil, Eden Hazard, or Mo Salah.

The best part is that the club seems to be getting better each year. Despite some issues with the conversion of chances, Bournemouth already has 10 points and sits in 5th place.

Keeping a position in the top 6 or even top 8 seems like a mountain to climb, but a healthy finish in the upper-middle of the table is an achievable goal for the club.

The attacking part of the game is certainly there, but there are question marks over the defense, Bournemouth has conceded seven goals so far, and this will be a problem eventually.

Betting Pick and Prediction

I think that the odds for the full-time result in this game are quite balanced. It seems like Bournemouth has a slight advantage, but it’s hard to predict which team will be able to win at the end. This is why I won’t be touching this betting market or any of the Asian handicaps.

Instead, I will take a shot at the over 2.5 goals option. Bournemouth is more than capable of scoring, while both defenses are leaky. As a result, I can see something like 1-2 or even 2-2 at the end. The price of 2.05 is high enough, so this is my final pick.

PICKOver 2.5 Goals2.09

Final Words

At this point, those are the best betting options for week 6 of the English Premier League. There are other exciting games out there, but none of the odds seem attractive enough for my taste.

Do you have a different opinion? Do you feel that there are some other exciting picks that I might have missed? Feel free to let me know in the comments below.

Good luck!

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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