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English Premier League Betting Picks for October 5th – October 7th

| October 4, 2018 12:00 am PDT
English Premier League Betting Picks

I’m very happy with the English Premier League free betting picks from last week, as they continued the profitable trend since the start of the season.

My expectations that West Ham would at least draw Manchester United came good, as the Hammers actually managed to win 3-1.

Burnley also did a solid job, beating Cardiff City away from home for another successful betting pick, while Chelsea and Liverpool managed to stay under 2.5 goals at the end.

The only disappointment was Newcastle’s performance, as the Geordies failed to create anything and deservedly lost at home against Leicester.

You can’t have everything, I guess, but three winners out of four picks is always a good return. Let’s hope that the positive streak continues this week, as it is time for the new batch of free betting picks on the English Premier League.

I will take some time looking at the odds offered by the best soccer betting sites and share my free picks for this matchday.

Burnley vs. Huddersfield

Here are the main betting odds for this English Premier League match.

Burnley to Win2.12
Draw3.10
Huddersfield to Win3.60
Over 2.00 Goals1.88
Under 2.00 Goals1.95

Honestly speaking, I’m not sure what I’m missing here. I know that Burnley hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since the start of the English Premier League, but the team is now out of the UEFA Europa League and looking much stronger.

The testimony to that is the two wins in a row that Burnley managed to achieve. Remember that this is a team that finished in seventh place last season, so the potential for a strong performance is there, and I expect a lot from the side.

At the same time, Huddersfield is the worst team in the EPL so far and deservedly sits at the bottom of the table. Under such circumstances, the price for Burnley to win at home should be around the 1.80-1.90 mark, in my opinion. Instead, we get the odds of 2.12, which seems like a gift, but let’s go through the team analysis before making final conclusions.

As for the goals market, the bookies decided to go for the 2 goals line, which is a bit low, but I guess both teams have not been very good at finding the net so far.

Burnley

This is the third week in a row in which I decided to include a Burnley game. The first two were successful, so let’s hope this is the case once again.

The reason is simple, though. The team didn’t have the strength in depth to play twice a week, so the attempt to qualify for the UEFA Europa League ruined the first 5 games or so for Burnley.

I already talked about that, so I won’t go into too many details, but I expect to see the side from last season until the end of the campaign, not the one that started the current one.

If you need evidence that the good performances are returning, simply take a look at the last two games of Burnley. The side trashed the decent Bournemouth team, and then went to Cardiff and grabbed the victory.

While the second match included some luck and some heroics by Joe Hart, it was still a decent display. Burnley stood strong in defense and was efficient up front.

In fact, the improvement in the attacking part of the game is huge.The side is creating more chances, and this results in more goals.

After scoring only three goals in the first five games, Burnley has now found the net six times in the last two.

Another big boost for the manager, Sean Dyche, is the performance of Joe Hart. The former England number one is working hard to rebuild his reputation. Despite some jokes and chants by the opposing fans, Hart looks as focused as ever.

He brings a calm presence at goal that reflects the defenders in front of him. They know that they can rely on Hart, and this could be one of the best transfers of Dyche so far.

Overall, I expect Burnley to keep up the good work from the past couple of matches, and the clash against Huddersfield at home is the perfect chance to get another three points.

Huddersfield

I feared for two teams at the start of the season: Cardiff City and Huddersfield. Seven games after the English Premier League has begun, it looks like those two will be in a desperate fight for survival this year.

Huddersfield failed to improve on last season, and you can tell. The team sits at the bottom of the table with only two points from seven games and the abysmal goal difference of -13. On the other hand, the club did play Manchester City, Tottenham, and Chelsea already, which is part of the problem.

In the other matches so far, Huddersfield didn’t look that bad but was still below par.

Honestly speaking, the Huddersfield team has some decent work rate and discipline but lacks the quality to match the other EPL teams.

The defense often lets the opponent create too many chances from various situations. Some come from open play, while others are a result of set pieces. It’s hard to find consistency in any element right now, which is a huge issue.

At the same time, the team struggles on the other end, too. Only three goals in seven games is not nearly good enough for a club that wants to stay in the English Premier League. That wouldn’t have been that big of a deal if the team was creating chances.

However, Huddersfield sits in the bottom three when it comes to shots mustered. This means that the main problem is not efficiency; it’s creativity. And to be honest, I’m not sure if the manager, David Wagner, could do much more with the current squad.

Betting Pick and Prediction

I think you know what my betting pick on this one will be already, but let’s make a proper conclusion despite that. All signs indicate that Burnley is finding the right rhythm again, so the club will be winning points at a much better rate from now.

The side is creating chances, scoring goals, and not letting the opponents find the net too often once again. The match against the struggling Huddersfield at home represents a perfect opportunity for Sean Dyche and his boys to get another win, the third one in the league.

I expect the visitors to try and keep it tight. Burnley might have some problems creating many clear-cut chances, but the defense of Huddersfield will eventually crack. I feel that a scoreline such as 2-0 in favor of the hosts is the most likely outcome of this game.

The price of 2.12 for Burnley to win is simply fantastic, so I won’t even look at the other markets. You can find such odds at BetOnline and other reliable bookies.

PICKBurnley to Win2.12

Crystal Palace vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

The first thing we need to know are the prices provided by the top bookies out there.

Crystal Palace to Win2.71
Draw3.05
Wolves to Win2.69
Over 2.25 Goals1.99
Under 2.25 Goals1.84

Wolverhampton has been one of the best teams in the English Premier League so far if we exclude the top six. This is the reason you will see such close odds when the side plays against the solid Crystal Palace away from home.

I completely agree with such an evaluation, as picking the winner in this one seems close to impossible. This is why the match result market is not exactly what I will be looking at in this game, despite the high odds for all three outcomes.

Instead, I think I see a good opportunity in the goals market. The line is set at 2.25, which surprises me a bit. Both teams are more than capable of creating chances, and Wolverhampton even managed more than 100 shots, which is more than teams like Arsenal, Tottenham, and Manchester United.

The side has been dangerous in every single game so far, and only the lack of composure has prevented it from finding the net way more often. The inefficiency of both teams, and Wolves, in particular, is the reason for the good price for over 2.25.

However, I think that the potential for a goal fest is there, but let’s take a deeper look at each team first.

Crystal Palace

I feel that Crystal Palace is one of the teams that is underperforming so far in the season. The start was bright, as Roy Hodgson and his boys managed to win away at Fulham on the opening day, but it all went downhill from there.

Palace lost three of out of five following their opening-day win and only managed to get some points from the matches against the struggling Newcastle and Huddersfield.

This is a team that simply can’t score enough goals. The main reason is that everyone relies too much on Wilfried Zaha.

The manager, Roy Hodgson, recognizes this problem and has urged his players to actually help the youngster. I think that Crystal Palace has better potential and the quality to improve in this area. Since Wolverhampton doesn’t have the most convincing defense, this could be a good game to start.

At the same time, the defense of Palace has been inconsistent as well. The team managed clean sheets against the likes of Huddersfield, Newcastle, and a Fulham side full of new players that barely played each other when the two teams met.

A quick look at the other games so far shows that Crystal Palace conceded twice every single time. Considering the attacking potential of Wolves, it won’t be a big surprise if the same happens this Saturday.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

The supporters of Wolverhampton Wanderers must be in heaven right now. The team has been superb since the start of the season, and only the lack of clinical finishing is the reason Wolves are not in the top 6 or even the top 4 right now.

The manager, Nuno Espirito Santo, continues to show that playing like a Spanish or a Portuguese team can bring results in the English Premier League, even if you don’t have unlimited financial resources.

His team is more than capable of both keeping the ball when required and pushing hard, with more than enough penetration and purpose.

The flexibility of the Wolves system and players is the main reason behind the success so far.

The Wolves side looks equally good when it has to defend deep and play on the counter or when it dominates the possession and has the initiative. I think we will see a mix of both against Crystal Palace, as I expect both teams to have a lot of the ball.

Still, I think that Wolves is the side that will have a better idea what to do with it. I feel that the visitors will create more chances, but their defense will allow Palace to have opportunities, too.

Betting Pick and Prediction

If I had to pick a winner in this match, it would be Wolverhampton. I expect the team to create more chances and play a bit better overall. However, we’ve seen this happen without resulting in a win for Wolves a couple of times this season already.

This is why I prefer to take a look at another betting market. The line for the under/over goals is set at 2.25. This means that if the two teams find the net twice, half of the stake is returned. Three or more goals would bring a win.

If you consider that the Wolves alone might score two or more, and Palace does have some reserves up front, the price of 1.99 seems quite tempting.

I will take this as my final betting pick because I expect something like a 2-1 win for either team.

PICKOver 2.25 Goals1.99

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Cardiff City

Let’s take a look at the mainstream markets related to the last game I will review today.

Spurs to Win 1.25
Draw5.40
Cardiff City to Win11.50
Over 3.25 Goals1.92
Under 3.25 Goals1.90

It’s easy to see why Tottenham is the overwhelming favorite in this game. Despite the slow start of the talismanic skipper Harry Kane and some inconsistencies, the side is still going strong. Spurs are currently 4th in the league.

Cardiff City, on the other hand, continues the tough run. The side already played the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City, and Arsenal so far. The team lost all of these games, conceding a total of 12 goals in the process.

The only match that was competitive, to an extent, was the home tie against Arsenal. However, the Gunners are in transition, and this is the only reason Cardiff City wasn’t trashed once again. I don’t think the side will have the same luck against Tottenham.

The goals market surprises me a bit. I think the correct line here should be 3 goals, not 3.25. Spurs are not that prolific this season, while their Welsh opponent has scored only four goals so far this season.

With that said, let’s move on.

Tottenham Hotspur

The main story surrounding Tottenham Hotspur has been the rather shaky form of many important players.

Spurs are doing a solid job so far in terms of points in the league, but the performance is not always there. Mauricio Pochettino knows that and has urged his players to improve a couple of times.

There were signs of this in the last game of the English Premier League. Spurs managed to beat Huddersfield comfortably, although this is not exactly the strongest side in the league. Fortunately for them, Cardiff City is on the same level.

This provides Tottenham with the opportunity to win convincingly and gain some confidence. Harry Kane will be eager to keep his good run after hitting a brace against Huddersfield last week. The match against Cardiff provides another opportunity for a similar experience.

I feel that Spurs will certainly put at least a couple of goals past their opponent. At the same time, the defense of the team has been solid for most of the campaign so far, so it should easily cope with the toothless Cardiff attack.

The only potential issue I see is related to the important Champions League game against Barcelona in midweek.

Playing Barcelona just three days before the game against Cardiff will probably force the manager to make some changes.

The backup players will certainly be motivated to take full advantage of every chance they have, though, so this shouldn’t be a major problem. The gap of quality between Spurs and Cardiff will be large enough, no matter what starting lineup Pochettino picks.

Cardiff City

The problems at Cardiff City seems so many that I’m not exactly sure where to start.

The defense of the team is a joke, allowing 16 goals in seven games so far. Neil Warnock simply can’t find a working formula, probably because of the lack of quality in the squad.

Their attack is not much better than their defense, and I honestly can’t see Cardiff scoring enough goals to stay in the Premier League.

The only good news for Cardiff is that it is still very early in the season.

Cardiff has already played a couple of top-6 teams already, and the fixture list should get kinder from now on. The team will probably have better opportunities to actually gain some points.

However, they will have to play against Spurs before that, and I can see another spanking on the horizon.

Betting Pick and Prediction

I was really torn on how to proceed with this match, as I see solid value in two separate betting markets.As I don’t like to place different wagers on the same game, though, I will share both of my suggestions but pick only one.

For a start, I feel the goals market represents a decent opportunity.

I expect Spurs to be solid at the back, so the struggling Cardiff attack should be kept quiet. At the same time, Tottenham has yet to find its best form, so the under 3.25 at 1.90 is certainly a good choice.

However, there is another betting market I like more than that. The odds for the Spurs to cover the -1.75 Asian handicap currently are set at 1.87.

I feel this is fantastic, as even a win with two goals would mean that half of your stake is a winner.

At the same time, if Tottenham wins by three or more, it’s a complete victory. Since I expect a scoreline such as 3-0 in favor of the Spurs, this would be my final pick.

PICKSpurs -1.75 AH1.90

Final Words

This is it for today, but not for the week!

I will soon add a preview dedicated to the weekend’s big game – Liverpool vs. Manchester City on Sunday. Those two are the favorites for the English Premier League title, so I feel the game deserves some special attention.

Make sure to check the full analysis and betting pick tomorrow. In the meantime, feel free to share your thoughts on the other games in the comments section below.

Good luck!

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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