Early Odds and Contender Analysis for the 2022 AFL Premiership Winner

| October 5, 2021 6:44 am PDT

The 2021 AFL season may have only just finished, but did you know that you can already bet on the 2022 AFL premiership winner?

Almost immediately after Melbourne’s Grand Final victory over the Western Bulldogs, the bookmakers released their odds for the AFL premiership winner in 2022.

Although the new season doesn’t start for almost six months, there is no harm in attempting to find value in early 2022 AFL premiership odds. In fact, that is exactly why I created this post.

Not only do I discuss the AFL odds for the 2022 premiership winner, but I also analyze all the leading contenders for the flag.

Can the Demons defend their crown? Will the Dogs go one better next year? Or could it be time for a new name on the E. L. Wilson Shield? Let’s find out.

Early 2022 AFL Premiership Odds

Here are the early odds for the 2022 AFL premiership winner, courtesy of the best Aussie rules betting sites.

You probably won’t be surprised to learn that Melbourne is the bookies’ favorite to win the premiership in 2022. The Demons were the best team in the comp last season, during both the regular season and finals series.

Having finished as runners-up in 2021, the Bulldogs are expected to challenge for the flag once again. Brisbane is also among the favorites after producing another solid campaign last time around.

Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney, and Richmond are relatively evenly priced, with GWS and West Coast sitting just outside the group of obvious frontrunners.

At the opposite end of the bookies’ 2022 AFL premiership odds list, North Melbourne is the clear outsider following a dreadful 2021 campaign.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2022 AFL Premiership betting favorites.

Will the Demons Retain the Flag in the 2022 Premiership?

  • Club: Melbourne Demons
  • Last Season: Premiers
  • 2021 Ladder Position: 1st
  • Last Premiership: 2021

The Dees achieved a phenomenal double last season. After clinching their first minor premiership since 1964, they went on to end their 57-year premiership drought in style.

Simon Goodwin’s men secured a giant 74-point victory over the Dogs in the 2021 Grand Final, notching 140 points of their own. Despite trailing by three goals midway through the third quarter, they kicked 16 of the last 17 goals to seal the flag.

Christian Petracca clinched the Norm Smith Medal, capping off a remarkable individual campaign. He collected a record-equaling 39 disposals in the final, underlining his undeniable ability.

Alongside Petracca, stars like Bayley Fritsch, Clayton Oliver, and Max Gawn shone throughout the season.

Thankfully for the Demons, their star players are only going to improve. At 29, captain Gawn just keeps getting better, while Petracca (25), Fritsch (24), and Oliver (24) have yet to reach their prime.

When you consider what these guys achieved last season, 2022 could turn out to be a another hugely successful year for Melbourne Football Club.

The Bulldogs Will Be Out for Revenge in 2022

  • Club: Western Bulldogs
  • Last Season: Runners-Up
  • 2021 Ladder Position: 5th
  • Last Premiership: 2016

It’s safe to say that 2021 was a rollercoaster ride for the Doggies.

After winning nine of their opening ten games, the 2016 premiers lost six of their final 12 regular-season outings – including each of the last three – and ended up slipping out of the top four.

Luke Beveridge’s boys bounced back during the finals series, dispatching Essendon, Brisbane, and Port to reach the showpiece. However, they were ultimately outclassed by Melbourne.

Player Goals
Josh Bruce 48
Aaron Naughton 47
Marcus Bontempelli 31

Granted, the Dogs were unlucky on the injury front last season. Not only did they lose top goalkicker Josh Bruce to a ruptured ACL in August, but they also struggled without captain Marcus Bontempelli for a number of matches.

If they can keep everyone healthy in 2022, there is no reason why the Bulldogs can’t challenge for the flag.

Regardless of big-name players such as Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae, all eyes will be on Bailey Smith next year. The 20-year-old midfielder just enjoyed a stellar breakout season and could hold the key to his team’s success in 2022.

Can the Lions Finally Go the Distance for the 2022 Premiership?

  • Club: Brisbane Lions
  • Last Season: Semi-Finals
  • 2021 Ladder Position: 4th
  • Last Premiership: 2003

Following another promising campaign, Brisbane has now registered three consecutive top-four finishes. The Lions ended up second on the ladder in 2019 and 2020 before finishing fourth last season.

In that time, however, Chris Fagan’s side has failed to reach the Grand Final – falling at the semi-finals on two occasions and the preliminary finals once.

It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Brisbane has choked when it comes to getting over the line in recent years. Although the Queenslanders have produced a series of solid seasons, they invariably falter when it matters.

The Lions reached four straight Grand Finals between 2001 and 2004, winning the first three. Since then, they haven’t been able to get the job done.

Sure, Brisbane boasts a strong team. I mean, Jarryd Lyons and Lachie Neale are among the best midfielders in the comp, while Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher kick goals for fun.

But the real challenge for Fagan’s men in 2022 will be getting to the Grand Final.

The Cats Must Pick Themselves Up if They Want to be 2022 Premiership Winners

  • Club: Geelong Cats
  • Last Season: Preliminary Finals
  • 2021 Ladder Position: 3rd
  • Last Premiership: 2011

Having lost the 2020 Grand Final to Richmond, the Cats would have been desperate to avoid further heartbreak in 2021. Unfortunately, they made it all the way to the prelim finals – only to suffer a humiliating 83-point loss to Melbourne.

A remarkable run of 11 wins in 12 games between early May and late July even saw Geelong challenge for the minor premiership. They ended up losing two of their final three regular-season outings, though.

Following defeats to Port and Melbourne during the finals series, the Cats lost four of their last six matches. Needless to say, they could struggle to pick themselves up in 2022.

Between 2007 and 2011, Geelong reached four Grand Finals in five years – triumphing on three occasions. However, they have only managed to qualify for the showpiece in one of the past ten seasons.

Can the likes of Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Hawkins galvanize the team to go again next year? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Player Team Goals
Tom Hawkins Geelong 62
Bayley Fritsch Melbourne 59
Harry McKay Carlton 58

Could 2022 Be Port Adelaide’s Year for the Premiership?

  • Club: Port Adelaide Power
  • Last Season: Preliminary Finals
  • 2021 Ladder Position: 2nd
  • Last Premiership: 2004

Port Adelaide will head into the 2022 season on the back of successive top-two finishes, so it could be argued that they have been the most consistent team in the AFL over the past couple of years.

The South Australians got their hands on the minor premiership in 2020, edging out Brisbane thanks to their superior percentage. Last time around, they finished just two points shy of Melbourne.

Still, it is worth remembering that Port has been knocked out in the prelim finals in each of the previous two seasons – and that means they haven’t reached the Grand Final since 2007.

With Ollie Wines – the 2021 Brownlow Medalist – on their side, the Power will be confident of going one better in 2022. Wines enjoyed a phenomenal season on a personal level, finishing ahead of Bontempelli and Oliver in a record-breaking count.

If stars such as Travis Boak and Charlie Dixon can match Wines’ level, Port could be difficult to stop next year.

Potential 2022 AFL Premiership Sleepers

Now that we’ve analyzed the favorites for the AFL premiership in 2022, it’s time to take a quick look at some outsiders that could upset the AFL odds next year.

Here are three potential 2022 AFL premiership sleepers to consider.

Richmond Could Make a Comeback for the 2022 Premiership

We all know that Richmond failed to live up to expectations last season.

Following a period of total domination, the Tigers finished all the way down in twelfth place – missing out on the finals for only the second time in nine years.

Having won three Grand Finals in four seasons between 2017 and 2020, you can bet your bottom dollar that Richmond will be back with a bang in 2022.

Regardless of the team’s struggles last season, guys like Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton remained consistent throughout the campaign. With Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch also booting goals at a rapid rate, Damien Hardwick’s side will almost certainly make a comeback next year.

The Giants Could Rally in 2022 as the Premiership Winner

Over the past few years, Greater Western Syndney has always been there or thereabouts come the business end of the season.

The Giants secured their sixth, top-eight finish in seven years last season, building on their run to the Grand Final in 2019. Although they failed to make it past the semi-finals, they certainly know what it takes to cause a stir.

GWS is powered by an exciting bunch of youngsters, with Jacob Hopper (24), Tim Taranto (23), and Harry Perryman (22) all under the age of 25. They are now one year wiser and will be eager to go even further in 2022.

Keep an Eye on the Bombers for the 2022 Premiership Winner

Essendon endured a relatively inconsistent 2021 campaign, recording 11 wins and 11 losses during the regular season. However, they ended on a three-game winning streak and punched their ticket to the finals.

Although they were ultimately outplayed by the Dogs in the elimination finals, they gave a good account of themselves towards the end of last season.

The Bombers may have finished eighth on the ladder, but it is worth pointing out that only three teams – Brisbane, Bulldogs, and Sydney – booted more points in 2021.

If goalkickers like Jake Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Cale Hooker, and Peter Wright can pick up where they left off last season, Essendon could ruffle more feathers next year.

Betting on the AFL Premiership Winner in 2022

At this early stage, it is obviously difficult to predict exactly what will happen during the 2022 AFL season. After all, the 2021 campaign has only just finished.

Still, there is a ton of useful information that we can take from last season to help us bet on the 2022 AFL premiership winner.

I don’t think anybody can argue that Melbourne wasn’t the best team in the comp last season. The Demons won both the minor premiership and premiership in a commanding fashion, suggesting they could be set for a period of dominance.

Having lost the 2021 Grand Final, the Bulldogs will almost certainly be in the mix again next year – as will Brisbane and Geelong.

At 9.00, Port Adelaide feels like a worthwhile early pick for the 2022 AFL premiership. The 2020 minor premiers almost finished atop the ladder for a second consecutive year last season and will have the 2021 Brownlow Medalist on their side next year.

You should consider some of the outsiders, too. Clubs like Richmond, GWS, and Essendon will fancy their chances of upsetting the AFL odds in 2022.

Finally, don’t be afraid to back more than one team to clinch the flag. There are some realistic contenders with big prices, so you could still make a nice profit even if one of your selections doesn’t make it.

For more general advice about how to pick the AFL premiership winner, check out our complete guide to futures bets. This guide contains lots of helpful tips for picking the winner of any sporting event or tournament.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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