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Early Odds and Analysis for Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith

| November 20, 2020 5:39 am PDT
Canelo Callum Smith Early Betting Preview

Canelo Alvarez makes his first appearance inside the ropes this year against Britain’s Callum Smith. The fight is scheduled for December 19 in Texas.

The WBA (Super) and The Ring super middleweight titles are on the line on the night, in what should be a very intriguing contest.

Mexico’s pound for pound superstar, Canelo, recently severed ties with Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions. Just days after that news broke, the multiple-weight world champion announced this fight with Smith. Since then, fans have been asking the same question — can Smith beat Canelo?

I’m going to look to answer that question today. What’s more, I’ll be analyzing the early odds for the fight to see if there is value in the opening odds.

If you’re looking to learn more about Canelo vs. Smith, keep reading.

Early Odds for Canelo vs. Smith

Canelo Alvarez to Win-450
Callum Smith to Win+320

Canelo’s odds to beat Smith are currently -450 with the best online sportsbooks.

The Mexican is favored to hand out another miserable night for Liverpool’s Smith family, having pummeled the body of older brother, Liam, to win the WBO light-middleweight championship in 2016.

Callum Smith will be the sixth Brit Canelo has fought in his career and the third brother from a famous boxing family. The flame-haired bruiser defeated Matthew Hatton — younger brother of former world champion, Ricky Hatton — back in 2011.

Smith’s odds to beat Canelo come in at +320.

I’m certain that there will be a fair amount of cash put on the Englishman in this fight, especially from his fellow countrymen. But his stock has also fallen in recent times, which will invariably put others off.

Betting against Canelo has proven to be a bad idea on 53 of 56 occasions. Can Smith upset the bookies this time though, and become just the second man to officially win against the Mexican since Floyd Mayweather’s masterclass in 2013?

As things stand, I don’t see any value in Smith’s odds. However, I believe Canelo’s odds will shorten to around the -1100 mark by fight night, at best. For perspective, Canelo’s odds against Daniel Jacobs — a fighter that many believed could beat him — opened at -278 before closing at -1250.

If you’re betting on Canelo to win, it will definitely be better to take his odds now.

How Canelo Can Beat Smith

There are more paths to victory in this fight for Alvarez than Smith. I think that is both clear and obvious.

Aside from being an excellent all-round boxer, Canelo also excels in the art of choosing his opponents wisely. If he didn’t think he could win this fight, he simply would not have taken it. At least that’s the view of many fans around the world. And my perspective is not much different.

But if you look at the multi-weight world champion’s last five fights, you can’t help but say “wow.” Canelo has fought Gennady Golovkin twice, Rocky Fielding, Daniel Jacobs, and Sergey Kovalev. That’s nothing to shake your head at.

Remove Fielding and you have four top-class opponents. Golovkin had never been beaten until he lost their first fight. Sure, he probably won that fight, but that’s by the by. Jacobs looked very poor and Kovalev was tired and over the hill.

Still, the names look impressive.

I can see Smith’s name added to Canelo’s list of victims. I think the Mexican’s pressure and inside games will be far too much for Smith to deal with. He’s going to target the Scouser’s body and take his legs away early before stopping him somewhere around the 7th or 8th.

How Smith Can Beat Canelo

It’s difficult to have a lot of faith in Callum Smith after his performance over John Ryder in November 2019.

Smith, as I saw it, lost that fight. However, controversy ensued when Smith was named as the winner. The polite way of putting it was that fans were seriously pissed.

When the dust settled, the discussion turned to how Smith didn’t look great at all over a guy that is not world level. Never mind on par with a guy like Canelo Alvarez.

Now, you can look at the fight and probably make a decent case for it being a draw. But it would require one hell of a PowerPoint presentation, free beer, and various other mind-altering chemicals to get most fans on your side.

Smith had his moments in that fight. However, Ryder bossed the distance and fought an excellent inside fight with pounding shots to the midriff, as well as some nice hooks and uppercuts.

Ryder, like Canelo, stands at 5’9″. The pound for pound boss will be encouraged by that, even though his reach is shorter at 70.5″ to Ryder’s 72″.

Remove Smith’s ability to work off a lengthy jab and throw straight shots all night, bully him up against the ropes, and there is very little that he has left. This is disappointing, as I was looking forward to seeing this fight a while back. I still am, of course, but the shine has been taken off things a little.

Perhaps Smith had a night off against Ryder. Maybe he was too complacent, and we’ll see a better display from him against Canelo. But I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on it, and that’s usually the best indication of your faith in a fighter.

Will Canelo Beat Smith?

I’m not prepared to give my answer to that question until I’ve had a chance to produce a full breakdown of the fight.

But from what you’ve already read above, it’s probably clear that I’m leaning towards Alvarez. Of course, that should hardly be a surprise, should it?

Canelo is regarded as the number one pound for pound fighter on the planet by many. Other than two very close fights with Golovkin, he hasn’t looked close to being beaten. And for so long.

You never thought a ginger would be the face of boxing, right? But he is. What’s more, he’s an excellent fighter and businessman that does not believe in giving up even the most minute of advantages to his opponents. On the contrary, you’ll find that many of his opponents are often the ones giving up the advantages.

Daniel Jacobs, like Kovalev, had a rehydration clause in his contract. Smith, like Kovalev, has been given limited time to prepare for the fight. So, the chips are once again stacked in favor of Canelo.

Still, I will be back with a full preview for anyone looking to bet on Canelo vs. Smith. I’ll answer all pertinent questions about the fight in that piece, so keep your eyes on our picks section for that. I’ll be including odds and best bets for Canelo vs. Smith, plus much more, in the breakdown that will be published on December 4.

More Boxing Odds, Bets, and Predictions

Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith goes down on Saturday, December 19 in the Lone Star State of Texas.

If you’re betting on the fight, I’ll be hitting you with a full preview that should cover everything you need. As I mentioned already, you can expect to get your hands on that on December 4 in our picks section.

But this isn’t the only fight to look forward to. We a couple of big fights to get your wagers down on. I’ll leave you with my pick of the big boxing fights coming up, as well as a couple of potential bouts, below.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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