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Early Ballon d’Or Odds and Predictions for 2021

| May 10, 2021 7:46 am PDT

The 2020 Ballon d’Or was cancelled due to the impact of the COIVD-19 pandemic on the soccer calendar, with L’Équipe deciding not to present the award for the first time since 1956.

But as European soccer begins to return to some sense of normality, the most prestigious individual accolade in world soccer will be handed out this year.

The winner will not be announced until December. However, you can already bet on the 2021 Ballon d’Or. With over half the year remaining, there is no harm in looking at the odds and making some Ballon d’Or predictions, right?

So, join me as I check out the 2021 Ballon d’Or odds, analyze the betting favorites and sleepers, and share my predictions.

2021 Ballon d’Or Winner Odds

Here are the current Ballon d’Or winner odds for 2021.

All the leading online sportsbooks currently view Kylian Mbappe as the frontrunner to win the 2021 Ballon d’Or. The PSG star is enjoying a standout year and is destined for big things.

Having led Manchester City to the UEFA Champions League final, Kevin De Bruyne is also expected to challenge for the award, as is Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski.

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have won 11 of their past 12 Ballon d’Ors between them, so it is no real surprise to see them near the top of the 2021 Ballon d’Or odds list.

I assess all the leading contenders below.

Analyzing the 2021 Ballon d’Or Betting Favorites

Let’s take a closer look at the 2021 Ballon d’Or favorites.

Kylian Mbappe (3.25)

Widely regarded as the heir to Messi and Ronaldo’s throne, it is surely only a matter of time before Mbappe gets his hands on the iconic golden trophy.

The question is – will Mbappe win the Ballon d’or in 2021?

After reaching the Champions League final last season, PSG fell to Man City in the semi-finals this year. Still, Mbappe’s game has continued to develop.

The speedy forward can humiliate the best defenders on the planet. I mean, the 22-year-old bowed out of the UCL with a record of eight goals and three assists this season, so he is clearly a special talent.

As his stock continues to rise, Mbappe’s Ballon d’Or price could even go down as the year goes on.

Kevin De Bruyne (7.00)

Over the past few years, De Bruyne has established himself as one of Europe’s top performers. Now, he is arguably the most complete midfielder in the game.

The silky Belgian has played a starring role in Man City’s journey to the Champions League final, bagging three goals and four assists along the way.

If he can guide Pep Guardiola’s side to UCL glory, he could easily be the Ballon d’Or favorite by June.

Then again, if City’s loses to Chelsea in the final, De Bruyne’s odds may rise.

There is no doubting De Bruyne’s talent, but it feels as though his chances of winning the Ballon d’Or could depend on his team’s success.

Competition Games Goals Assists
Premier League 24 5 11
Champions League 7 3 4
EFL Cup 4 1
FA Cup 3 1 1

Robert Lewandowski (7.00)

Many believe that Lewandowski was robbed of the Ballon d’Or last year.

The lethal striker scored a whopping 51 goals in 43 appearances during the 2019/20 campaign, leading Bayern Munich to the Champions League, Bundesliga, and DFB-Pokal treble.

In any other year, those kinds of numbers would almost certainly have seen Lewandowski scoop the prize, yet the 32-year-old was ultimately deprived of the opportunity.

Unfortunately, he has missed several important games through injury this season. But if he continues to score at a rapid rate, he simply cannot be ignored in the Ballon d’or voting.

Lionel Messi (7.50)

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Lionel Messi posting an outrageous number of goal involvements year after year.

As things stand, the Argentine wizard has chalked up 36 goals and 14 assists in 44 appearances this season. Let’s not forget there are still a few more games for him to add to his tally, too.

By their own high standards, Barcelona hasn’t enjoyed the best year. However, that has not stopped Messi from being the standout act in Spanish soccer.

While his best days are arguably behind him, nobody would be shocked if Messi won the Ballon d’Or in 2021. After all, he has won six of their previous 11, while no player has won more in the history of the award.

Could this be Messi’s last season at Barcelona? The 33-year-old has been linked with a move away from Catalonia, and you can bet on his next club.

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Cristiano Ronaldo (8.00)

The 2020/21 campaign may not rank among Ronaldo’s greatest ever seasons, but the ageless megastar is still banging in goals at a staggering rate.

Now 36, the five-time Ballon d’Or winner has shone in a somewhat average Juventus team this season – racking up 34 goals in 40 appearances so far.

Juventus has missed out on the Scudetto for the first time in ten years, but Ronaldo looks set to finish as the top scorer in Serie A by some distance. There really is no stopping him!

Although CR7 has clinched four of their past seven Ballon d’Ors on offer, I think he would have to do something spectacular between now and the end of the year to challenge the likes of Mbappe and De Bruyne for the award.

Competition Games Goals Assists
Serie A 30 27 2
Champions League 6 4 2
Coppa Italia 3 2
Suppercoppa Italiana 1 1

Ballon d’Or Sleepers to Consider in 2021

Yes, the 2020/21 season is nearly over. But the Ballon d’Or won’t be handed out until December. A lot of can change before then, so it is worth assessing the 2021 Ballon d’Or outsiders, too.

Bruno Fernandes (15.00)

Bruno Fernandes’ impact has been nothing short of immense at Old Trafford. The Portuguese playmaker has notched up 38 goals and 25 assists in 75 appearances for the club – and he is far from finished.

Unfortunately, Manchester United is competing in the Europa League at the moment. But if Fernandes can fire his side to UEL glory and hit the ground running in the UCL next season, he will give himself an excellent chance of upsetting the 2021 Ballon d’Or odds.

Following a stellar Premier League campaign, you probably won’t be surprised to hear that Fernandes is the bookies’ clear favorite to win the 2020/21 PFA Player of the Year award.

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Erling Haaland (21.00)

Just like Mbappe, it feels like Erling Haaland is destined to win the Ballon d’Or sooner or later. But is 2021 too soon?

It is easy to forget that Haaland is still just 20, especially when you consider his ludicrous goalscoring stats. I mean, he recently broke the record for the fewest games to reach 20 Champions League goals – surpassing the milestone in only 14 appearances.

When you look at the odds for Haaland’s next club, it is pretty obvious that almost every major European side wants a piece of the Borussia Dortmund prodigy.

If he leaves Dortmund at the end of the season and starts smashing it for a team like Man City or Real Madrid, his price of 21.00 is likely to plummet. If you are looking for an early outside bet for the 2021 Ballon d’Or, Halland could be your man.

Ruben Dias (34.00)

It is common knowledge that defenders don’t usually win the Ballon d’Or. But if Ruben Dias can cap off a remarkable debut season at Man City by securing the Champions League trophy, he could thrust himself into contention.

The last defender to win the Ballon d’Or was Fabio Cannavaro – and that was back in 2006! Virgil van Dijk finished second in the 2019 rankings, although he was ultimately overshadowed by Messi.

Dias has transformed Man City’s defense into one of the toughest in Europe. As a result, he is now widely regarded as one of the best center-backs on the planet.

When it comes to betting on the Ballon d’Or in 2021, write Dias off at your own peril.

Phil Foden (34.00)

English soccer fans are often accused of overhyping homegrown youngsters. However, I think they can be excused for getting excited about Phil Foden.

The whizz-kid has enjoyed a phenomenal breakout year – contributing 14 goals and ten assists to Man City’s dominant campaign. With the EPL title already in the bag, he has the potential to seal a memorable treble for his side.

Having bagged two goals and two assists in his last five Champions League outings, Foden has proved that he is a big-game player. If City goes on to win the UCL, expect Foden’s Ballon d’Or price to drop dramatically.

My 2021 Ballon d’Or Predictions

I’m going to start with a fairly bold 2021 Ballon d’Or prediction and say that neither Messi nor Ronaldo will scoop the prize this year.

We all know that the two icons have dominated the award for over a decade now. But with the next generation of superstars emerging, it feels like the end of an era.

When it comes to the other favorites, I really like the look of De Bruyne at 7.00. Sure, Mbappe is the bookies’ frontrunner at the moment. But things are likely to change drastically between now and December.

If De Bruyne can clinch Champions League success with Man City and continue to enhance his reputation as the best midfielder in the game throughout the first half of next season, the award could be his.

In my opinion, Haaland and Dias are both solid sleeper options. That said, Haaland is still young, while Dias is a defender.

Of course, age and position should not come into the equation. But history tells us that the Ballon d’Or is generally won by midfielders and forwards in their mid to late twenties.

That is it for my 2021 Ballon d’Or predictions. Remember to check the odds regularly, as this market will fluctuate. Here are the best sites to find odds and bet with.

If you’re looking for more gambling advice like this, check out our guide to betting on soccer futures and outrights.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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  1. Kikomeko shafiq July 13, 2021 at 5:59 am

    Messi wins 2021 ballond,or



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