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Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker Betting Preview – Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets

| June 24, 2020 5:19 am PDT
Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker Prediction and Pick

Dustin Poirier takes on Dan Hooker in what should be an epic headliner this Saturday, June 27. UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker is the fourth card at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas and should be up there with the best events of the year.

You can find Poirier’s odds to beat Hooker, and vice versa, on the top UFC betting sites. The Louisiana native is favored to get the win over the streaking Kiwi, and I will be explaining why that is a little later.

I would be lying if I said that I was 100% confident in backing either man for a convincing win on the night. Truth be told, I can make arguments in favor of Poirier and Hooker emerging with the “W” on Saturday. But I’m not going to sit on the fence here and will be giving you my pick for Poirier vs. Hooker and explaining why that is.

This could genuinely end up being the fight of the year. Depending on certain movements in the division, we could even have a lightweight title shot up for grabs when Poirier and Hooker face off.

So, how about kicking this Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker betting preview off with my prediction for Saturday’s main event?

Poirier vs. Hooker – Who Wins?

  • Dustin Poirier

Poirier was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in his last fight, sure, but you don’t get that far without being a high-level athlete. More than this, the American has the better resume of the two with wins over Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, and Anthony Pettis in his last five fights.

Khabib is the incumbent lightweight champ, while Holloway was the featherweight titleholder when Poirier fought him. Alvarez is the former 155-pound champion, while Gaethje currently holds the interim lightweight title.

While Hooker should never be underestimated, writing a guy like Poirier off is such a terrible idea.

Latest Poirier vs. Hooker Odds

Dustin Poirier to Win-220
Dan Hooker to Win+180

The odds above have been taken from the BetNow sportsbook and are subject to change.

First impressions? Well, if you’re on my wavelength, you might be looking at Hooker’s odds to beat Poirier and considering the value they offer. In certain respects, Hooker could be the value bet of the night.

Poirier enters as the favorite for the first time since his bout with Eddie Alvarez in June 2018. He was an underdog against both Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway in 2019, losing to the champ and beating Holloway for the UFC interim lightweight strap.

One of the most slept-on fighters at 155, Poirier worked his nuts off to get that title shot but came up short. But he has bounced back from losses in the past and has never been defeated while coming off a loss.

Hooker has been favored in the majority of his UFC fights to date and enters this contest with plus money odds for the first time since his bout with Marc Diakiese in December 2017.

The Aucklander will fancy his chances of proving the bookmakers wrong, just like he did that night, but will need a big performance over the toughest opponent of his career if he is to win.

Best Poirier vs. Hooker Bets

I have been looking through our recommended UFC betting sites for the best Poirier vs. Hooker bets. And while there are some very appealing odds out there, I have taken the bets below from the Betway sportsbook.

This week, I’m going for four bets on the main event. Take a look and see if any of the wagers below appeal to you for this fight.

Dustin Poirier to Win -220

The simple choice for me is backing Poirier to win this fight. Regardless of how he gets it done or when he gets it done, if you take this bet, you win if “The Diamond” does. It’s that simple.

Poirier has 12 wins by KO, seven by submission, and six by decision in his career. If you fancy his chances of adding to one of these numbers but aren’t entirely confident of predicting how, this might be the bet for you.

Dustin Poirier to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission +110

Will Poirier knock Hooker out? Perhaps he will submit him? Well, it is tough to call how a fight ends in most cases, which makes this bet a popular one with savvy punters.

Providing Poirier wins via any of the scenarios above, you will win your bet. But if Poirier is beaten, or the fight goes all the way to the scorecards, you will lose your stake.

Dan Hooker to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission +275

I’ll be honest here — if Hooker is to win this fight, I can’t see it coming on the scorecards.

Poirier is a tough cookie and has the better cardio of the two. He has six losses in eleven years as a pro, with just two of them coming by way of decision. Poirier has been knocked out and submitted a further two times, but the last time he lost on the cards was back in 2013.

If you are backing Hooker to win this fight, I would suggest adding this one to your shortlist of bets.

Fight to Last Over 2.5 Rounds (-120)

Cardio will be a major factor in this fight. I don’t see either guy landing a stoppage within the first half of the bout, either.

I would put a few dollars on the fight surpassing the 2.5 round mark.

Why Poirier Wins This Fight

I like Dan Hooker. I have watched him put together a nice run, having evolved from a so-so fighter in his early days. The guy is a big, powerful lightweight with a cool vibe about him, and the division is better with him in it.

But I have to say that Hooker is in for the fight of his life this Saturday at the APEX. Dustin Poirier seems to get little love from casual fans, despite being one of the gnarliest geezers in the promotion. He is a high-level dude with nasty boxing, solid wrestling, and a BJJ blackbelt to boot.

Hooker has the reach advantage in this fight and will be looking to work behind that long, snapping jab to keep Poirier at bay. The Kiwi had a lot of success against Paul Felder when using this tactic, but as his cardio depleted, he found himself taking a lot of punishment with the fists.

Although Hooker got the decision in that fight, it could have easily gone the other way. I scored the fight in favor of “The Irish Dragon” and was surprised when the judges’ scores were announced.

Like that fight, Hooker is going to want to circle around Poirier and pick him apart from the outside. To do so, he will be looking to use leg kicks and teeps to keep the fight at his range but will have to work even harder against the American.

How Poirier Wins This Fight

I see this as a very close contest until Hooker runs out of steam. Poirier has been in there with some absolute killers in the past, taking everything they have had to dish out before outworking them and stopping them once the damage has been done.

Poirier has a lot of pop behind his shots and is one of the most creative guys with his hands operating in the lightweight division. He is smart enough to use distance management, feints, and takedowns to break Hooker’s rhythm and present openings to land big shots.

Hooker will not be able to live with Poirier in the later rounds, especially if the former puts in the bodywork early on.

My prediction is Dustin Poirier by KO/TKO in Round 4.

Will Poirier Beat Hooker?

Well, you have my pick for the main event on Saturday’s card, and I hope I have done a good job of explaining my reasoning.

Poirier is still an elite lightweight and will continue to put the work in as long as he has a future in the sport. All eyes will be on the Louisianan, who makes his return to the Octagon having been beaten by Khabib Nurmagomedov last year.

Will it be a winning return for Poirier? Well, we will find out this weekend.

Heads up — I’ll be covering more UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker bets, odds, news, and predictions on our UFC betting blog. So, you know what to do!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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