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DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori

| December 3, 2020 2:15 am PDT
DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori

Last week’s UFC event was flipped on its side before it ever began. I got weird by going with Derrick Lewis as my contrarian hammer last week, but then his fight with Curtis Blaydes got taken off the fight card.

That took an amazing card down considerably, but you should have still been able to use some of my MMA DFS picks.

Miguel Baeza was a hit with a submission win, and I also nailed a solid value with an Anderson dos Santos submission win of his own. Anthony Smith saw his fight elevated to the headlining act, and he responded with a submission victory, as well.

Kai Kamaka and Spike Carlyle did not deliver as pricey studs to go along with three winning MMA DFS picks, and of course, we know Lewis didn’t even fight.

It’s not easy to get a perfect string of fighters. If it were, we’d all win the MMA milly maker every week. Or we’d tie for first, anyways.

Speaking of which, here are some tips for winning in MMA DFS, beyond what I offer each week.

My goal is to give you as many winners as possible, offer some insight, and from there, you can decide how to build MMA DFS lineups.

Things didn’t go quite as planned last week, but we have another big event with some underrated bouts coming. Join me as I break down my favorite plays in my MMA DFS picks for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori.

Jack Hermansson ($8k)

This is that rare week where the headlining acts are not priced through the roof. You can get Jack Hermansson at just $8k at DraftKings, and Marvin Vettori is just $200 more.

That makes sense, as most UFC betting websites have Hermansson priced as a mild +113 favorite (or something similar).

Vettori is probably the more exciting (and younger) fighter, so I get the love. He’s mostly a submission guru, though, and a lot of his recent bouts have gone the distance.

Due to a potential lack of upside in the DFS realm, I prefer the cheaper Hermansson. He’s a bit more balanced with 11 career KOs, and we also know he has an exceptional floor game.

He’s known for his elite conditioning, and he’s as confident of a fighter as they come. This is a guy that submitted David Branch and Gerald Meerschaert, and his lone loss since 2018 came by the hands of the vicious Jared Cannonier.

For the most part, I think Hermansson’s main weakness at this point is just a heavy hand at the wrong time, and that isn’t something he really has to be so concerned with in this spot.

Adam Haynes details why you should like Hermansson a bit more eloquently in his Hermansson vs. Vettori betting preview, but I just think he’s way too cheap and offers too much upside compared to the guy he’s facing.

Ovince Saint Preux ($7.8k)

There is always a chance that the aging OSP gets dropped in his fight against an undefeated and rising Jamahal Hill.

Of course, I tend to think he’s just a grizzled veteran who doesn’t make many mistakes, and Hill is a raw youngster who may be getting a bit too big for his britches.

That’s the natural course of a hotshot UFC fighter looking to blossom into a superstar, but the only way Hill doesn’t look silly here is by silencing one of the UFC’s best gatekeepers.

Adam Haynes goes into more detail as to why we shouldn’t expect Hill to live up to his odd favorite billing in his Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jamahal Hill betting pick, of course.

I just like the value here, and OSP reminded us all that he still has the punching power to be a force.

I’ll stop short of guaranteeing a KO win in this spot, but OSP is a highly-skilled, disciplined, and balanced fighter. I’d much rather side with him getting a victory (in some fashion) rather than Hill.

Roman Dolidze ($8.7k)

Lastly, we have Dolidze, who feels like one of the best bets going into UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori.

Dolidze is a bit of a brute, as he’s savagely finished each of his seven opponents to this point. He’s done it with his hands or on the ground via submission, and he’s yet to get tripped up (7-0, 1-0 in UFC).

He’s not the most experienced fighter on this card, but he has passed the eye test at every turn and could be a star in the making.

Johan Allan Arte is a worthy foe with nine career KOs, but he has some flaws to his game – especially on the canvas. The tough part is this fight could be won in a lot of different ways, but the easiest path to a win for Dolidze may come on the ground.

That’s simply where Arte’s most glaring weakness seems to be, while his fighting style is also a bit too reckless at times. I think Dolidze either takes advantage of his issues on the ground or catches him being overly aggressive on his feet.

Top MMA DFS Lineup for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori

  • Jack Hermansson ($8k)
  • Ovince Saint Preux ($7.8k)
  • Roman Dolidze ($8.7k)
  • Jordan Leavitt ($9.2k)
  • Jimmy Flick ($8.5k)
  • Justin Jaynes ($7.6k)

I am looking for some type of a combination of safety and upside on this card. I think we get a perfect blend with my first three MMA DFS picks.

Hermansson, OSP, and Dolidze feel like the more complete and powerful fighters in their matchups, and they also could end their respective fights early.

No matter where you go from here as you build your MMA DFS lineups for this weekend, I think that core is a fantastic starting point.

This card doesn’t have too many other fights that I think I can say I’m super confident about, but I really like Jordan Leavitt and Jimmy Flick to get the job done.

Leavitt is a skilled submission artist who has yet to taste defeat, and he’ll be trying to take down a guy in Matt Wiman that is near the end of his career. He’s also lost three of his last four and is the inferior fighter on the mat.

Speaking of mad floor games, Flick is about as good as they come. He’s proven to have a weak chin (4 KO losses), but 13 of his 15 wins have come via submission.

If his fight with Cody Durden gets to the floor, I don’t see it ending any way but with a Flick submission.

Jaynes is the last guy in. You’ll need to punt somewhere to wrap up this group, and while I am not crazy about him, he’s a rock-solid fighter who has finishing ability.

He put that on full display when he TKO’d Frank Camacho in his UFC debut, and he has 13 finishes to his name. Gabriel Benitez (10 submissions) could be a real problem if this thing goes to the ground, but I don’t mind taking a shot at Jaynes at this price if he can avoid the takedowns.

This is not the easiest week to try to piece together a perfect lineup of MMA DFS picks, but it’s always fun to try. I’d start with my core daily fantasy MMA picks, and if you like this lineup, feel free to fire it into a GPP.

Whatever you do, good luck, and enjoy the fights!

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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