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DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis gives MMA fans a really nice headlining act. The fight card as a whole, of course, is rather underwhelming.
If you’re betting on this event, you’ll want to pick your spots. There could be a litany of traps, and even the final fight may not be quite as obvious as the odds might suggest.
For assistance with all of this, check out Adam Haynes’ UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis predictions. He’s done a magnificent job covering UFC bouts in great detail all year, and his latest UFC Fight Night betting preview is no exception.
I handle things from the daily fantasy MMA side, but you can still go with his UFC Fight Night picks, whether you’re betting or building MMA DFS lineups.
For DFS, we need to piece together a perfect lineup, so it’s almost like a parlay. There is a lot of risk involved, and it usually requires you getting winners in every slot, as well as some pretty big underdogs to come up big.
Last week’s MMA DFS picks weren’t great. Deiveson Figueiredo and Valentina Shevchenko both won, but everyone else performed well below expectations.
UFC 255 was probably my worst card of the year in terms of nailing the underdogs, but you need to try to get some value to pay for the more reliable fighters.
It was certainly a bad week for my MMA DFS picks, but a new event comes to wash the pain away. Join me as I break down my favorite MMA DFS picks for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis.
Kai Kamaka ($9.2k)
Curtis Blaydes is a tough guy to fade, but I won’t be using him in this MMA DFS picks write-up. I’ll provide reasoning for that bold (stupid?) approach in just a bit.
But I’ll start off my UFC Fight Night DFS picks with Kamaka. He’s pricey, but he’s a brilliant pivot off the $9.3k Blaydes, and he was solid in his UFC debut, landing 115 significant strikes.
That ended up being a win in three rounds against Tony Kelley, which earned Fight of the Night honors.
The only thing I don’t love here is that Kamaka is stepping in on short notice.
Kai Kamaka: Steps in against Jonathan Pearce – https://t.co/gRvhnWGnaS— RotoWire? (@RotoWireMMA) November 21, 2020
That could potentially be an issue, but he has good striking and has been gutting out Decision wins left and right.
I am well aware that he’s had issues translating that striking into KOs, but after seeing Jonathan Pearce face planted in his UFC debut and showed some defensive issues, I think this could be a great spot for the talented Kamaka to get his first KO win.
Weird thing? Not many people will feel amazing about paying up for Kamaka. The zero KO wins plays into it, but he’s also a marginal favorite and is clearly unproven.
Give me all the contrarian juice here, as the alternative options just aren’t that amazing.
Derrick Lewis ($6.9k)
I might lose you right here, and I totally get that. Curtis Blaydes is an exceptional wrestler, he’s virtually unstoppable on the ground, and he has an impressive resume.
Heck, Adam Haynes broke this fight down in his Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis betting preview, and his main takeaway was that this was a mismatch favoring Blaydes.
To be honest, I don’t really disagree.
However, as things stand, Blaydes is projected to garner 50% ownership or higher. The far cheaper (and still plenty explosive) Lewis is probably closer to 30%, if not potentially lower.
The main reason is that the odds greatly favor Blaydes. He also hasn’t lost in two years, he’s a takedown maven, and if this fight gets to the ground, it’s probably over.
Also, if the fight goes the way many think it will, there isn’t much incentive in fading Lewis or pairing these two guys together in the same lineup.
Ipso facto, we get a really cheap guy with elite striking and power in a spot where we know he’ll be trying his hardest to end this thing early. And he’s about as contrarian as anyone on this slate (potentially).
The big thing I like about Lewis is that, while the inferior overall fighter in this match, he absolutely has the striking to flip the tables here.
The dude has 19 career KOs.
He’s in good form with three straight wins behind him, too, and his resume is just as promising as Blaydes.
Oh, and if there is a weakness for Blaydes, it’s elite striking. He couldn’t handle Francis Ngannou in either meeting (both TKO losses), and Lewis actually topped Ngannou in a Decision win.
None of this makes Lewis a slam dunk.
There is just a crease there for Lewis to KO this guy early, get you 100+ fantasy points, and shock the UFC world. It’s a major dice roll, but if he’s going to be under 30% owned, he’s quite the hammer play to close out this slate.
Miguel Baeza ($8.7k)
This really isn’t the fight card to feel super confident in too many MMA DFS picks. I think a lot of favorites are going down on Saturday, and you’ll just need to be careful who you pay up for.
One more pricey fighter I do think will be worth the cash, however, is Baeza.
He has looked awesome in his first two UFC appearances, both ending in the second round via stoppage. Baeza is now up to 9-0 for his career with seven KO wins, and he looks like a pretty good bet to keep it rolling against Takashi Sato.
Sato is an imposing 16-3 and is a strong fighter, but the edge in striking probably goes to Baeza, who also happens to have a sneaky good floor game.
I like Baeza to get the finish here, one way or another.
Top MMA DFS Lineup for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
- Kai Kamaka ($9.2k)
- Derrick Lewis ($6.9k)
- Miguel Baeza ($8.7k)
- Anthony Smith ($8.5k)
- Anderson dos Santos ($7.4k)
- Spike Carlyle ($8.9k)
This is a risky MMA DFS lineup, to be sure. Fading Blaydes is cause for dismissal in any MMA conversation, but it’s also a really good idea for GPPs.
Am I at all suggesting Derrick Lewis is some lock? No, and if you’re doing 10 MMA DFS lineups, I’d probably tell you to go the other way (and roster Blaydes) in nine of them.
But per usual, my MMA DFS picks are geared towards tournaments, and I want upside and differentiation. Maybe you can do that while still rostering a chalky Blaydes, but I enjoy living on the edge.
I don’t think guys like Kamaka or Baeza or crazy safe, but they look like rock-solid plays, and they’re in winnable spots. They project well, too.
I’ll roll the dice a bit further with guys like Anthony Smith, Anderson dos Santos, and Spike Carlyle.
I’m not sure Carlyle is all that risky, of course. He’s got the highest fantasy points projection at most MMA DFS sites, and he’s also going to be fairly high-owned.
Anderson dos Santos projects well and shouldn’t have super high ownership. He’s appealing just because of that, but he’s also an experienced, versatile fighter who is a bit of a submission guru.
Something has to break with him and Martin Day both being 0-2 in the UFC, and I just think he’s the more skilled fighter.
Smith is probably going to be seen as the biggest risk in this second wave of MMA DFS picks.
I’m not sure that really should be the case.
He’s as experienced as anyone and brings 33 wins to the table, however, and he can end fights in a number of different ways.
You could say his recent form is poor, but his only four losses in his last 11 fights have come against Thiago Santos, Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Aleksandar Rakic.
He made it to the end of the match with both Rakic and Jones, too, and his TKO defeat to Teixeira didn’t come until round five.
Few fighters are as skilled and as battle-tested. He’s a weathered fighter at 32, but I like him in this spot, and he makes my favorite MMA DFS lineup work.
Like always, you can use this squad as it stands, or you can pivot as needed. You can also blend my MMA DFS picks and Haynes’ betting advice to place bets at the top UFC betting websites.
Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Enjoy the fights!