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DFS Picks and Recommended Lineup for the 2021 NASCAR Pocono Organics CBD 325

| June 25, 2021 8:57 am PDT

Kyle Larson can’t be stopped, it seems. The #5 car has been on an insane tear of late, winning an absurd four straight races.

I’ve bet against him in recent weeks, using the logic that this hot run can’t possibly keep up. With his price inflating to $12.5k and Larson heading into an event he’s never won; I don’t think I’ll stray from that line of thinking.

He’s unsurprisingly the top projected driver going into the 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325, of course, and he’s also favored to win at the top US sports betting sites.

That’s all great, but Larson is one of the chalkiest drivers going into this weekend’s race. For that reason, I am out.

But which drivers can you trust in? Let’s break down my core NASCAR DFS picks and top lineup to find out.

Ryan Blaney ($10.2k)

Blaney is not cheap, but you’re getting a lot of wiggle room with one of the best drivers on the circuit, as he’s starting from the 27th slot on Sunday.

I get if you’re not interested in someone starting that far back, but even if he doesn’t win, any amount of success is going to make him a smash play.

Blaney finished 38th his last time out, but was 5th at the All-Star Race, and has been 17th or better in six of his last seven races.

Pocono Raceway has been relatively kind to Blaney, too. He’s averaged a 12.6 finish here in 10 starts, and he even won this event in 2018.

The price feels steep based on what he’s done in 2021, but Blaney is an elite driver, and feels like a great pivot away from the chalky Larson. He also projects well, and should be lower owned than guys Larson, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr.

Aric Almirola ($7.3k)

You may want to take deeper dives than this with all the studs worth considering on this slate, but Almirola feels like an amazing value.

He’s starting out of the 11th slot, which could easily be viewed as good or bad. He’s been pretty competitive when he starts up front this year, though.

Here are his finishes when he’s started inside the top-20 in 2021.

Event Start Finish Fantasy Points
Ally 400 1 4 42
NASCAR All-Star Open 10 1 62
Buschy McBusch Race 400 18 29 2
GEICO 500 14 15 33

Ignore the Buschy McBusch Race. I included that for transparency, but that obviously doesn’t aid my argument in the slightest.

That said, Almirola has otherwise huing tight or excelled when put in favorable spots this season. He’s also done well at Pocono Raceway throughout his career.

Almirola has finished 5th and 3rd in his last two stops here, and he’s also cracked the top-12 in five of his last six turns at this track.

The recent form and history are both strong, and Almirola has one of the best points per dollar projections going into the weekend. I love the value here.

Kyle Busch ($10k)

Busch is another elite option that feels like an incredible discount compared to Larson. He will also garner ownership, but this is chalk I am willing to eat.

His last stop here (38th) went terribly, but he has otherwise thrived here. Take a look at his previous eight runs here.

  • 5th
  • 9th
  • 1st
  • 1st
  • 3rd
  • 1st
  • 9th

That type of dominance is too good for me to ignore. Busch is up front out of the 5th slot, but I won’t let that deter me.

Busch has clearly crushed at Pocono Raceway, but his 2021 form is also fantastic. He has 13 top-10 runs, two wins, and has finished 11th or better in each of his last five races.

He feels like a great bet to push Larson early and often, and his amazing success at this track cements him as one of the top NASCAR DFS picks for this week.

Top NASCAR DFS Lineup for June 27th

  • Ryan Blaney ($10.2k)
  • Aric Almirola ($7.3k)
  • Kyle Busch ($10k)
  • Michael McDowell ($5.6k)
  • Chris Buescher ($8k)
  • Alex Bowman ($8.6k)

Blaney and Busch feel like building blocks this week. I could always be wrong about Larson, but this feels like a terrific “fade the chalk” spot. I might change my tune slightly if he’s contrarian for some reason, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case.

Almirola is probably my favorite sleeper play of the weekend, too. There is more value to be had, though, and I think you can get away with a punt like Michael McDowell.

He certainly feels like the best deep dive in the driver pool, especially when you consider he finished 8th here in 2018. McDowell is also dirt cheap for a guy in a sweet spot (17th), who has also been competitive throughout the year.

McDowell has averaged 27.5 fantasy points in 2021 and has eclipsed 28+ in four of his last five starts. That’s about all we’d need of him to crush this price tag, too.

Buescher is a bit more expensive than I’d normally like, but you’re getting serious wiggle room out of the 25th spot. He’s also fared decently (30.9 fantasy points per race) in 2021, and had a third place run two races ago.

He doesn’t need to cover much ground to pan out, and he’s largely done his job with 23+ fantasy points in four of his last five events. It’s also worth noting that he finished 10th here in 2020, and has cracked the top-16 in three of his last four trips to Pocono Raceway.

Bowman wraps up my top NASCAR DFS lineup for the 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325. He’s an amazing value for a guy that projects fairly well, and also figures to be contrarian.

Being just a few ticks below Joey Logano and Kurt Busch ensure his ownership stays low, yet this is an elite driver who has racked up two wins and 10 finishes inside the top-10 in 2021.

The recent form is strong (9th or better in five of last six races), and he finished 9th here last June.

I am always on the prowl for quality drivers who offer value and upside, and I think this lineup gets that in spades. Busch is necessary chalk, Blaney is a great drop-down from Larson, and the rest of these guys are strong values that either offer upside or will be low owned.

2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 Betting Advice

Let’s start off with the fact that I am fading Kyle Larson in daily fantasy NASCAR, so do what you will with that information.

Maybe that makes you hammer him into your NASCAR DFS lineups – I don’t know. But this hot run can’t go on forever. For the betting realm, he just isn’t worth the risk at +180 over at BetOnline.

That’s a bad price for a favorite in something so volatile as auto racing, so I’d steer clear from it. Larson is obviously ablaze right now, and yes, he’s good enough to win yet again. But from a value and DFS perspective, the fade makes sense.

You can start with Denny Hamlin (+700) and get instant value, and it only gets better from there. My favorite play is Blaney at +1600, but Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are solid options that have won here before, and also come in with compelling odds.

Hopefully, my NASCAR DFS picks help you in some manner. If you seek more betting advice for this weekend’s event, be sure to check out our NASCAR betting picks.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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