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DFS Picks for the 2021 NFL Championship Round
The 2021 NFL Conference Championship Round is set. The league’s top seeds advanced last weekend and will host games to decide who gets to play in the Super Bowl.
I took a look at the early 2021 NFL Championship Round odds to get a feel for what to expect, and now it’s time to hand out some daily fantasy football advice.
Allen Lazard was a fantastic value play last week while paying up for Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce ended up being a good call. My lineup may have fared better had it not been for a concussion to Lamar Jackson.
There is still a chance to win big with a two-game slate coming up. Join me as I break down my favorite NFL DFS picks, sleepers, and lineup for the 2021 NFL Championship Round.
Top NFL DFS Picks for Championship Round
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers ($6.5k)
- Aaron Jones, RB, Packers ($6.5k)
- Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills ($7k)
- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($8k)
- Kansas City Chiefs Defense ($3.1k)
The Buccaneers made Aaron Rodgers look bad the last time he faced them, but the likely NFL MVP is just too cheap.
Tampa Bay can rush the passer and force turnovers, but the strength of their defense comes in stopping the run. That will likely force the Packers to air it out more than they prefer, but that could have its perks against a secondary that allowed over 4,200 passing yards and 29 passing scores on the year.
If Rodgers can avoid turnovers (unlike he did in the first matchup), he could thrive in this spot.
I don’t love Aaron Jones in regards to a brutal matchup against a stellar Tampa Bay run defense. However, the Bucs didn’t do a good job against pass-catching backs on the year.
Green Bay should look to get their dynamic back the ball however they can, and a little extra PPR value (plus the cheap price tag) makes Jones stand out during the Championship Round.
Davante Adams is a stud and under-priced at $8k. I’m going to go ahead and assume we all know he’s good by now, though.
Diggs could go overlooked with Adams and Tyreek Hill on this slate, but he shouldn’t. He’s the cheapest of the three elites, and he has just as much upside. He’s a lock for me in the game with the highest total of the weekend.
If you only pay up for one stud Chiefs pass-catcher, make sure it’s Kelce. He’s pricey, but he is by far the best tight end to own on this slate. He also racked up 22.5 fantasy points the last time he faced the Bills.
I am not super high on any defense this week. However, the Chiefs are at home, and they host a Bills offense that doesn’t run the ball well. That could make Josh Allen more one-dimensional, and it’s always possible his past bouts with turnovers pops up here.
Championship Round NFL DFS Sleepers
- Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers ($6.1k)
- Ronald Jones II, RB, Buccaneers ($4.6k)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers ($3.9k)
- Rob Gronkowski, TE, Buccaneers ($3.2k)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense ($2.7k)
Brady is the cheapest quarterback on the board, so he makes my NFL DFS sleepers list almost by default.
The 43-year old put up 40 passing touchdowns during the regular season, though, and he’s topped 22+ fantasy points in five straight games. He wasn’t really needed the last time he faced the Packers, but that might change, and he arguably has the most talented supporting cast in the playoffs.
Jones is probably the main reason why the Packers should fear the Buccaneers. Green Bay has shown an improved ability to contain the run, but Jones absolutely murdered them earlier this year.
Ronald Jones vs. Packers— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 18, 2020
? 113 rushing yards
? 2 TDs
? 26.1 PPR fantasy points pic.twitter.com/WzTJp5PQ2i
He also ran angry last week, and if the Bucs are smart, they’ll feature him in this matchup. Due to his upside and the perceived beatable matchup, he is way too cheap.
All eyes will be on Davante Adams, while Allen Lazard was the breakout star in Green Bay’s first playoff game. However, the Buccaneers are vulnerable down the field, and it may take the Packers’ third-best wide receiver to move the needle here.
Paying for Kelce is surely the best route at tight end when building out your NFL Conference Championship DFS lineups, but he’ll be as chalky as it gets.
There could be some merit in fading him or at least pairing a second cheap tight end with him. Either strategy could be useful, and Gronk is the ultimate punt.
Gronkowski has 7.3 combined fantasy points over his last three games, but he torched Green Bay for a 5-78-1 stat line earlier this year.
I’d imagine the optimal lineup may have the Buccaneers defense, as well. They’re a great punt simply due to savings, while it’s fair to suggest none of these four defenses deliver an amazing effort.
That said, they’re kind of the most appealing option when you factor in the price. They’re on the road against the league’s top-scoring offense, but they held Aaron Rodgers to 10 points in the previous meeting.
Tampa Bay also picked him off twice (one for a score). Green Bay doesn’t turn the football over, but what if the Bucs have their number? If so, you won’t want them missing from your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Lineup for the Championship Round
- QB: Aaron Rodgers – Packers ($6.5k)
- RB: Ronald Jones II – Buccaneers ($4.6k)
- RB: Aaron Jones – Packers ($6.5k)
- WR: Davante Adams – Packers ($8k)
- WR: Stefon Diggs – Bills ($7k)
- WR: Scotty Miller – Buccaneers ($3.4k)
- TE: Travis Kelce – Chiefs ($8k)
- FLEX: Rob Gronkowski – Buccaneers ($3.2k)
- DEF: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2.7k)
It never feels great to fade the likes of Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen. However, you can’t roster everyone in the same lineup.
I will absolutely play with things once ownership projections come out, and if you want to make changes, just reference my top NFL DFS picks and sleepers.
As things stand, I tend to think the Packers game ends up being a bit more explosive than the Bills vs. Chiefs contest. It’s among my 2021 NFL Championship Round locks, after all.
So is the Bucs hanging tight and beating a 4-point spread as the underdogs. I think the NFC title game is well contested, high scoring, and goes down to the wire.
All of this leads to a lot of exposure to Packers and Buccaneers players – especially if they end up being collectively contrarian.
I’m concerned about the matchup with the Buccaneers, but I was worried about the Rams, too. Rodgers calmed those concerns by dropping 25 fantasy points on the top scoring defense in the NFL.
Rodgers has now put up 25+ fantasy points in each of his last three games, and with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I’ll bet he continues to play pretty well.
Jones is not a guy we have to pay up for, but he’s coming in at a discount. He’s the most expensive running back, though, so it will be very interesting to see if his ownership does drop at all.
I want at least two stud wide receivers. There’s three of them (plus discounted Bucs receivers), so you will absolutely want some. I also want Kelce, who is simply the best tight end available.
If you want to get cute, you can pivot to Gronk (who I love as a punt at Flex) and pay up at Flex and WR3.
Scotty Miller really stands out, though. The Packers probably don’t have anyone that can keep track of him in the slot, and Antonio Brown is iffy for this one.
Bucs wide receiver Antonio Brown is currently undergoing an MRI on his knee.— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) January 18, 2021
Both he and Gronk could end up eating in this spot, as Brown could be out, and Jaire Alexander may contain Mike Evans.
Ronald Jones II is an easy pick for the other RB spot, and I almost hope he doesn’t get the nod as the starter. Ideally, it’d lower his ownership.
Lastly, I still want to save cash with the Bucs’ defense. They have a ton of upside, and there is just no sense in spending up for defense on this slate.
NFL Championship Round Betting Advice
As has been the case in the past, I always like to make note of the direct correlation between NFL DFS picks and NFL betting.
That won’t be the case for every pick or game, but there absolutely is a correlation at times. For instance, if you like exposure to one game, you’re obviously banking on those players doing well and producing points.
Hence, the Over becomes appealing if you plan to bet on the game.
This week, the main correlation is that the Packers vs. Buccaneers game will hit the Over and that Tampa Bay will beat the spread. I found it incredibly shocking that the Bucs were underdogs at all, and four points felt a bit rich.
The Chiefs and Bills have also looked pretty good defensively so far. I still want exposure to those teams in the right spots, but I think that game’s 54 total feels a little high.
There are only two games left, so you really just need to go with the best pricing and trust your gut. If you need a little help betting on these games, check out our NFL picks page.
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