I won’t go as far as saying Harvick will win, but I see the logic, and I love him for NASCAR DFS. Why? Because the guy is a monster, and still comes in as just the fourth most expensive driver on the circuit at DraftKings.
That may work into him being chalky, but Harvick’s recent struggles could work to lower interest. I don’t mind, as he’s still been 11th or better in each of his last three races. The guy has won nine times in 2020, and he’s been inside the top-10 on 27 occasions this season.
A two-time winner at this event, it’s high time Harvick gets back on track, and I think he does it this weekend. If he wins, terrific. If not, I think he’ll come very close and make paying up for him worth it.
Michael McDowell ($5.7k)
Ty Dillon wasn’t an amazing NASCAR DFS sleeper pick last week, but he was at least inside the top-25. McDowell can’t even say that, as he’s finished 32nd and 36th in his last two runs.
He hasn’t been reliable lately, but let’s not forget he was 25th or better in seven of his previous eight races. Normally that’s not even a talking point, but when you’re saving salary like this, it’s worth considering.
McDowell has pretty much no upside, but he’s projected to lead the slate in terms of points per dollar (7.9), and he’s at least cracked the top-25 in five of his last 10 races at Kansas Speedway.
On the year, he’s kept himself in the mix, finishing inside the top-20 17 different times. At this price, I think we can roll the dice a bit and just hope he can get inside the top-25.
Joey Logano ($9.5k)
My NASCAR DFS strategy is usually on the stars/scrubs path, so if you want to be more balanced, be sure to make the necessary changes when exiting my NASCAR DFS picks.
That said, I’ll add a second stud with Harvick, as dropping down to McDowell (and other values) can open things up a bit.
You can push your way up to another really expensive driver, but Logano comes in at a discount. He just feels too cheap in a spot where he won back-to-back in 2014 and 2015.
Logano hasn’t won here since, but he’s still fared well at the Kansas Speedway, finishing inside the top-17 in four of his last five runs here. His 2020 season is underrated, too, as he’s cracked 20 top-10’s, and he has three wins under his belt.
He almost got a fourth last week, and his form is good with a top-15 placement in five of his last six races. Logano looks like a great value play that offers elite upside this week.
My Favorite NASCAR DFS Lineup for the Hollywood Casino 400
Kevin Harvick ($10.4k)
Michael McDowell ($5.7k)
Joey Logano ($9.5k)
Cole Custer ($7k)
Erik Jones ($8.4k)
William Byron ($9k)
The other three plays I’m going to get exposure to in my NASCAR DFS lineups are Cole Custer, Erik Jones, and William Byron. You can pay down for a third sleeper to get another stud like Elliott or Hamlin, but I’ll go a little more balanced here.
In my mind, I already have two studs with Harvick/Logano, and when you look at the form of Byron and Jones (both have been inside the top-6 in each of their last two races), I think they offer solid value.
Byron has also crushed at the Kansas Speedway. He finished 10th here earlier this season, as well as 5th in 2019.
He’s been great and has done a good job in this event, but Erik Jones may be an even better play. I’m pairing them, but I would take Jones first, seeing as he’s seemingly so close to notching his second win of the season.
Jones has finished 3rd, 2nd, 8th, and 3rd over his last four events. He’s also been very good at this track, with 5th, 7th, 3rd, 4th, and 7th place runs over his last five tries in the Cup Series.
He’s in terrific form, is a nice price, and is even among Adam Haynes’ top Hollywood Casino 400 sleepers if you want to bet on the race this week.
Lastly, don’t overlook Cole Custer. He may be a bit pricier than you’d prefer, but he cracked the top-10 (9th) last week, and could be ready to make a big run.
The 22-year old has been pretty competitive on the year. He even has a win, along with eight stops inside the top-10, and six finishes inside the top-16 over his last 10 races.
Even better? In his only appearance at the Kansas Speedway as part of the Cup Series, he finished 7th here earlier in 2020. He’s a cheap enough price to easily fit in with this lineup, so I’ll ride the wave and hope he can build off of last week’s momentum.
There is always so much to consider when trying to come away with solid NASCAR DFS picks. Hopefully I steer you in the right direction, but I wish you luck no matter what you do this week!
Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.
When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.