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Daily Fantasy Football Picks for NFL Week 16 (2020)

| December 22, 2020 4:55 am PDT
Patrick Mahomes Throwing the Football

Another week of daily fantasy football goodness is already upon us. This is a weird week, as games get going on Friday, and the schedule is split up across four consecutive days.

Merry Christmas, indeed.

Your focus as far as daily fantasy football is concerned will be the Sunday main slate, however, and that’s where I’ll continue to hand out my favorite NFL DFS picks.

I’m actually quite pleased that this slate will not include Derrick Henry, while it also won’t have Josh Allen, Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and numerous other DFS studs.

That is a bummer in terms of snatching sure-fire fantasy points, but this could level the field greatly when trying to win a GPP. Landing those sneaky NFL DFS sleepers could be more crucial than ever, as a lot of the top options are a bit pricey, or simply have bad matchups.

Your research has to start with that core, though. I’ll do what I can to help you narrow down those calls. I hit big with Jalen Hurts (40 fantasy points) last week, while Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, and the Seahawks defense were also rock solid.

Cooper Kupp was a bust, and was my lone gaffe.

Let’s see who I like to start lineups out with in my week 16 NFL DFS picks.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs ($8.5k)

Some will say I am being lazy this week, but I am just not getting cute.

Kansas City players are priced up considerably, partially because they’re great, and also because there are not many standout options on this main slate.

Mahomes is pretty remarkable. The past two weeks he’s cleared 24+ fantasy points despite not even playing that well. He has turned the ball over four times in that stretch, and last week against the Saints he didn’t come close to that 300+ yard bonus at DraftKings.

The price is steep, but Mahomes gets an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that ranks dead last against fantasy passers. Atlanta just gave up nearly 400 yards through the air to Tom Brady, and they’ve given up the fourth most passing touchdowns on the year.

Atlanta’s defense has been better since firing Dan Quinn, but it still isn’t a unit that has a prayer in stopping Patrick Mahomes. After three straight “decent” outings, this feels like a spot where Mahomes goes off.

Jalen Hurts ($7k) stands out as a considerably cheaper option that should feast against the Cowboys. 

I vouched for him last week, though, and Mahomes happens to be my favorite play at quarterback.

This is a slate where I want some certainties. When looking at my core, I want the high upside and high floor, and no other quarterback gives me a better package than Mahomes in week 16.

Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles ($7k)

Firing up Jalen Hurts makes sense, but after the past two weeks (and a matchup with Dallas), he’ll be popular. I’m curious to see if Sanders is a nice leverage play, as he has the same matchup, and is the same price.

Perhaps just stacking the Eagles or that game (it has a nice 50 total at BetOnline) is the play here, but I think it starts with Sanders.

The arrival of Hurts has opened things up for him. Even in a tough spot against a good Saints run defense two weeks ago, he popped off for 32 fantasy points.

He then struggled last week, so it’s quite possible recency bias keeps his ownership in check.

I’m game for rolling the dice, as he’s an explosive, versatile back that is finally locked into more of a featured role. He also gets Dallas, who have allowed the second most yards to running backs in 2020.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($9k)

Is week 16 really as simple as just stacking the Chiefs?

On this slate, I actually think that’s a great way to start your builds. Maybe it will be best suited for cash games, but since when has it ever been a bad idea to spend up on studs in GPPs?

This Chiefs vs. Falcons game has an obscene 53.5 total at most NFL betting sites, and I won’t at all be shocked to see it rise a bit before Sunday arrives.

The matchup itself is sublime, too. Hill is unrecoverable down the field, and he can be utilized in a multitude of ways. Atlanta is an awesome matchup, as the Falcons rank in the bottom three in receptions and yardage allowed to receivers on the season.

Hill is matchup proof, and he’s in the midst of a potential record-setting year. I doubt he can get to the Randy Moss single-season scoring record (23), but with 17 touchdowns, you have to think Mahomes and co. at least see if they can get close.

He’ll at the very worst be adding to his spot in the team record books.

The price is monstrous, but the other wide receivers we’d normally pay up for are not very alluring. Calvin Ridley is a nice way to run it back in this game if you fade Hill or Travis Kelce (more on him in a second), but I am just digging a full KC stack this week.

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team ($4.9k)

I could just put Travis Kelce here. I want to put him here. I should put him here.

And if you want to know who my top tight end is, it’s Kelce. There, I said it. But you know I love the Chiefs by now, so I’ll stray from them here.

To be clear, if you think a full Chiefs stack can be done comfortably,
I love it. 

We’ll see later in the week if there is enough value to have it make sense. For now, I’ll just save nearly $4k and use Thomas, who hauled in an insane 13 catches last week.

There’s no telling if this crazy role will continue, but the encouraging thing is both Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins have targeted him relentlessly.

He is quarterback proof, he is a threat in the red-zone, and his matchup (Panthers rank 25th vs. TEs) looks plenty fine.

I might just punt the position completely, or I’ll see about cramming Kelce in. But Thomas is an elite value when looking at what he’s capable of. If you want a solid floor and some upside, you could do worse than Thomas in week 16.

Washington Football Team Defense ($3k)

Last week was another ugly reminder that paying up for defense is just a bad idea. Paying for someone like Baltimore was fine, but if you invested in a seemingly sure thing like the Rams, boy, were you disappointed.

I really don’t like spending on a defense, so I will either recommend a mid-range option, or I’m trying to completely punt the position.

For this week’s top NFL DFS picks, I’ll go right down the middle with the WFT defense.

Washington has every reason to play hard, as they’re impossibly in first place in the NFC East, and their defense continues to look rather good.

Ron Rivera faces his old team this week, so the revenge factor is alive and well. Washington also faces a fairly containable Panthers offense, and they just got done making Russell Wilson look pretty pedestrian.

Washington gets major pressure up front, they’re stingy against the pass, and they’re even solid against the run. Christian McCaffrey potentially returning would give cause for pause, but Washington creates so much chaos up front that I think they’re a very good value here.

Summary

Am I playing it too safe with a Chiefs stack? I mean, I’ll agree, they are not cheap, but why do we need to fade them?

Price hasn’t stopped me from paying up for Derrick Henry or other studs, and these dudes keep shredding.

There isn’t a negative correlation between the KC stars, either. Kelce and Hill do most of the damage for this offense, and Mahomes has the ability to get 30+ fantasy points in his sleep.

All three of them do, really.

Right now Mahomes and Hill head my daily fantasy football picks for week 16, but I understandably love all three.

Like usual, this doesn’t necessarily mean you have to build your NFL DFS lineups starting with all of these guys. You literally can, but it’d be quite difficult to figure things out.

In GPPs, it’s not the worst try, but the point here is these are my favorite plays at each position, and I personally will absolutely have some tourney squads with this as my core.

If you want to go that wild route, I’ll go over my favorite NFL DFS lineups later in the week.

For a little more insight as to how the week could play out, hit up my early week 16 NFL betting odds.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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