Daily Fantasy Football Picks for NFL Week 13 (2020)
If you want to have success in daily fantasy football, you need a good core. That’s the whole point of my weekly NFL DFS picks, after all.
These aren’t necessarily always going to be the top-performing plays, but if they can mostly hit, you should be able to add the right values around them and have a shot at cashing.
If you really hit the sleeper plays, you may even take down a big GPP.
Last week was pretty bad across the board, so there was a lot of chalk you’d have been good to stay away from. It was a week where my NFL DFS picks largely got the job done.
See who was a hit.
- Taysom Hill (18.5 fantasy points)
- Nick Chubb (29.6)
- D.J. Moore (10.1)
- Saints Defense (14)
Moore didn’t smash, but he wasn’t a total failure on a bad slate. I also didn’t tell you to play Derrick Henry or Tyreek Hill, and for that, I’m sorry.
The good news is Darren Waller was my only bad suggestion of the lot. But on a day where the Raiders were inexplicably horrific, most of them were major disappointments.
There are several NFL DFS picks for week 13 I have my eye on already. Here are the top players to target if you’re playing at the major DFS sites.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers ($6.8k)
Rodgers is just unstoppable right now. People will dismiss his matchups, but he burned seemingly strong Colts and Bears defenses for 522 passing yards and seven scores over the past two weeks.
Not much can disrupt A-Rod these days, as he’s got a healthy and effective supporting cast, and he is in quite the groove with multiple touchdowns in six straight games.
Aaron Rodgers has completed 68.5% of his passes for 3,100 yards, 33 touchdowns and 4 INTs (117.6 passer rating).— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) November 30, 2020
There's five games left in the regular season. #Packers
The matchup against the Eagles looks bad on paper, but Philly has not done a good job against quality quarterbacks in 2020. More importantly, they simply haven’t faced many.
Regardless, Rodgers has been mostly immune to matchup difficulty, and he sports an insane 122.7 quarterback rating and a 15:1 TD: INT ratio at home this year.
Despite all of this, Rodgers is somehow the fifth most expensive fantasy passer going into week 13. I don’t know if he’ll get overlooked, but I certainly hope he does.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles ($6.7k)
While I love Rodgers this week, I am not going to lie and say the Packers are going to coast to an easy win. They’ve done rather well as the favorites this year, but the Eagles continue to be a desperate team that is impossible to peg.
More importantly, Green Bay struggles against the run. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine rolls out questionable looks, this unit doesn’t always tackle well, and they often have too many defensive backs on the field.
Just look at David Montgomery’s big run on Sunday night.
David Montgomery with the CAREER-HIGH 57-yard gain!! pic.twitter.com/3TbgGW1Q36— PFF (@PFF) November 30, 2020
If the Bears had run it more and didn’t fall into a massive hole, it’s quite possible Montgomery could have feasted. In the end, he still put up 28 fantasy points.
Running backs are always in play in this matchup, as the Packers rank 30th against the position in points allowed. Sanders is an elite talent that should get a huge workload in this one. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t crush.
DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins ($6.4k)
Parker is one of my favorite NFL DFS picks for week 13…if Tua Tagovailoa is still out. He didn’t play last week, and Ryan Fitzpatrick came in and targeted Parker relentlessly (8 catches and 119 yards on 14 targets).
There’s no guarantee Parker gets that same volume with or without Fitzmagic, but I certainly prefer that connection, and I like his chances if the wily veteran is under center.
Miami is just better with him under center.
Parker put up 22.9 fantasy points last week, and he didn’t even score a touchdown. On top of that, Miami mostly ran the clock out late and even fumbled two balls on potential scoring drives.
I think Parker is a smash play in week 13, where he gets a burnable Bengals defense that has given up the sixth-most touchdowns to wide receivers on the year.
Darren Waller, TE, Raiders ($6.1k)
Okay, let’s try this again. Waller was pitiful last week in a smash spot, but the Raiders couldn’t do anything right, so I’ll chalk it up as a horrific letdown game after losing to the Chiefs the week prior.
If a game against the freaking Jets isn’t a bounce-back spot, I don’t know what is.
Now, I’ll admit that I really like the Jets to beat this point spread as part of my week 13 NFL locks (and hey, maybe they even win), but that doesn’t mean Las Vegas can’t have a lot of success here.
Miami moved the ball at will last week, and pretty much everyone can say that who has gone up against the Jets in 2020. Las Vegas should be no different, and the Jets also happen to rank 27th against tight ends this season.
Waller has the role, athletic ability, and matchup to ball out. He should have done so last week, but I have no hesitation going back to the well and banking on him doing it in week 13.
New Orleans Saints Defense ($3.6k)
I don’t mind going back to the Saints, either. New Orleans has played elevated defense ever since Drew Brees went down with an injury, and the Saints have now topped 14+ fantasy points in each of their last four games.
They’ve benefited from some pretty favorable spots, but a total beatdown of the Buccaneers on primetime television stands out as something fairly unforgettable.
The Saints are running more, but their defense is simply playing lights out. They could have a tougher task on the road against the Falcons, but they sacked Matt Ryan eight times and held the Falcons to just three field goals the last time out.
Most of the best NFL betting sites have this game projected for a tame 46 total, and thanks to the Saints, it should honestly be lower.
In fact, this unit has been insanely stingy. Denver ran almost the entire game last week and still barely cracked 100 yards rushing. No other offense has come close to doing that in their three previous games, and the Saints have held opponents below 14 points over the last four games.
Yeah, I don’t mind paying for this defense.
There are undeniably other daily fantasy football picks to build around this week.
Kyler Murray and a handful of others offer just as much upside as Aaron Rodgers, this is a slate with Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook on it, and there’s always the presence of Davante Adams to worry about.
But you don’t really need me to point out guys that lead the field in pricing every week. Cook and Henry can get 40 fantasy points and are over $9k, after all.
Yes, play all of these dudes – especially if you’re entering multiple week 13 NFL DFS lineups.
However, if you want to save some cash, build more balanced lineups, or just be a little contrarian, you may want to go with my top week 13 NFL DFS picks.
Of course, you can profit off of football without playing daily fantasy football. Just check out our NFL picks to get a little insight as to how to bet this week.