Copa America 2019 Outright Winner Analysis and Betting Pick
Millions of soccer fans will be watching the 2019 Copa America when it comes around in the middle June.
South America has always produced talented players, and the game is almost like a religion on the continent. The Copa America is right up there with the biggest of all sports events in the region.
Brazil and Argentina are the usual suspects when it comes to this year’s edition, but other teams will be eager to upset them.
There is not much time until Copa America starts, so the leading betting sites offer odds for the outright winner market.
Let’s take a look at how the 2019 Copa America odds stand as of right now.
The home advantage and the quality in Brazil’s squad make them the big favorite here. The only other team that seems likely to win, if you ask the bookies, is Argentina. Lionel Messi probably has something to do with that….
I think there are a couple of other nations that stand a decent chance of leaving a mark, so let’s dig a bit deeper and see what each team has to offer.
Copa America 2019 Groups
Before we go to the individual analysis for each country, let’s take a closer look at each group of Copa America 2019. According to the format, the first two teams go through, as well as the two best third-placed nations.
The host nation is the big favorite here, and I’m fairly certain that Brazil will win this group. The second place is rather open, but most people expect to see Peru progress.
The lack of a clear underdog makes me think that the third-placed team that won’t reach the knockouts might come from this group.
The logical result here would be for Argentina and Colombia to reach the next stage.
Qatar has no chance, in my opinion, and Paraguay will be hoping to steal a spot in the knockout rounds as one of the better third teams.
Most people expect a close battle between Uruguay and Chile for the first place, but I don’t think that the reigning champions will be on the same level as their big rival.
Both nations should progress to the next stage, while Japan and Ecuador will be fighting to be one of the best third-placed sides.
When a soccer giant like Brazil is the host of a big tournament like Copa America, it’s inevitable that the nation will be the top favorite to win. The country has always been producing some of the brightest talents in the world and is among the most successful in the history of the sport.
However, Brazil has failed to win a major trophy since Copa America 2007. The team has been expected to perform better on multiple occasions, but it failed even in its home World Cup in 2014.
The people of Brazil are thirsty for success, and the pressure is sky-high. With players like Neymar, Alisson, Thiago Silva, Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, and many others, anything but the trophy will be labeled as a failure.
I believe this is the big problem of this Brazilian team right now. The expectations of the whole nation could be a heavy burden. Yes, the team will have the support from the stands, but with so many hopes and dreams on your shoulders, it’s easy to tremble.
On top of that, Brazil has some issues when it comes to the balance of this squad. There’s enough talent all across the board, but I’m not entirely convinced by their midfield. The creative part is covered for sure, but are there enough quality players that are ready to do the dirty work?
Overall, Brazil is the most likely winner of the 2019 Copa America, and I don’t intend to argue with that. The side has world-class players in many positions and the home advantage.
The problem is that the price of +125 is simply too low. The pressure on the squad will be huge, there are other decent teams, and it’s a knockout tournament, after all. One bad game is all it takes to get eliminated.
For that reason, I can’t back Brazil to win Copa America 2019. I simply don’t see the value in the price for the side.
If you actually expect to see Selecao lift the trophy, you should probably adopt a different strategy. Wait for the tournament to come closer and place a wager on Brazil to beat every single opponent from the knockout stages on.
The accumulated betting odds should be higher than what the bookies offer right now.
The second-best team, if you trust the odds, is Argentina. The country came close to winning the trophy in the past two editions of Copa America, only to lose on penalties against Chile in both finals.
If you add the lost final of the 2014 World Cup, it’s safe to say that Argentina has been painfully close to winning a major trophy too many times in the past couple of years. The whole nation was heartbroken repeatedly, but no one felt a stronger disappointment than Lionel Messi.
He was accused of not leading his country to glory on multiple occasions, even retiring from the national side for a brief moment. The little magician is considered to be the greatest soccer player ever by many. One of the few arguments against his GOAT status is the lack of a trophy with Argentina.
Messi will be 32 this year, so the 2019 Copa America will be one of his last chances for a major trophy. The Barcelona star will be determined to achieve that, and his motivation shouldn’t be underestimated.
Messi will be surrounded by top-class talent as well, with the likes of Paulo Dybala, Angel Di Maria, and Sergio Aguero more than capable of taking over games on their own.
Argentina certainly can win Copa America 2019, but there are some question marks over the team. For a start, the spirit of the country seemed broken during the 2018 World Cup. A single bad result might trigger the disappointment of the fans and the media, which could ruin the atmosphere surrounding the squad.
On top of that, Argentina has been struggling to find the best balance for years. Messi is doing too much for the team, while other star players are not doing enough. If the head coach Lionel Scaloni somehow achieves the required cohesion, we might finally see Lionel Messi lift a big international trophy.
I don’t want to bet on that, though, as the price for Argentina seems fair. You currently can get +400, which is not good enough for my taste.
With Brazil playing at home and at least a couple of other teams more than capable of beating Messi and co in the knockouts, I would skip that option.
It’s funny how Chile never won Copa America before 2015, losing four finals, but then lifted the trophy in back-to-back editions. Many believed that the home advantage and some dubious referee decisions were the main reason why the country was successful in 2015.
However, Chile defended the trophy in 2016, proving that the triumph was not a fluke. The heroes in both Copa America editions will be back to try and get a third title this year. We should see Alexis Sanchez, Arturo Vidal, Mauricio Isla, Gonzalo Jara, Gary Medel, and other members of the squad once again in Brazil.
On the surface, the star players of the country are far from their best. Alexis is struggling in Manchester United, and the core consists of men who are past 30. At the same time, this Chilean generation always relied on hard work and discipline first.
Sure, the talents of Vidal and Sanchez were crucial at times, but the resilience of the team is the main reason behind the first two titles. I expect Chile to be tough to beat and a deadly opponent in the knockouts if the team reaches that stage.
However, we already saw that this is not the same squad in the World Cup qualifiers. Chile failed to reach the finals of the tournament, and the aging core simply can’t produce at the same level consistently.
The price of +1000 is quite tempting, but I feel that this generation already paid its dues and will fail to replicate the form of 2015 and 2016.
We are entering underdog territory now, as Colombia is priced +800 to win the 2019 Copa America. The country has always been in the shadow of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, but I wouldn’t underestimate this particular group of players.
It has reached back-to-back knockout stages of World Cup finals and proven to be a strong side. I thought that Colombia could be one of the dark horses in Russia 2018, but an injury to James Rodriguez ruined the country’s chances.
This is one of the big problems for this team, as it relies on James too much. Without him, Colombia usually struggles to create enough chances and score goals.
On the bright side, the side has a strong defensive core, protected well by hard-working midfielders. They provide a solid platform, and when James Rodriguez is at his best, Colombia can be unstoppable. The midfield maestro has failed to reach his full potential on a club level, but he always performs for his country.
I expect more of the same in Brazil this summer, so Colombia is certainly one of the teams that might go far in the tournament. The price of +800 is juicy too, but I think it’s just short for me to back the side.
If James is not at his best or if Colombia faces a team that can contain him, it will probably be game over.
I’m not exactly sure why the price for Uruguay is that high. The country is the most successful in the history of Copa America, and the current squad is strong enough to compete. It has a great balance between the resilient defense and lethal attack.
The back line is expertly led by skipper Diego Godin and his Atletico Madrid teammate Jose Jimenez. Hard workers like Lucas Torreira make sure that the defenders receive enough protection from the players in the middle of the park, too.
Up front, you can always expect the duo of Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez to find some goals. I honestly feel that Uruguay has everything needed to succeed.
The country is one of the most underrated in Copa America 2019. The core of the squad is full of experienced and quality players that have won multiple trophies.
On top of that, the head coach Oscar Tabarez has been around since 2006. He knows the group very well and already led the country to a couple of famous tournaments, including a 4th place in the 2010 World Cup and a win in the 2011 Copa America.
The whole country and the players trust Tabarez to guide his men to glory. You will struggle to find a nation that has as much unity as Uruguay.
Under these circumstances, I simply can’t ignore the price of +650, and this is my final pick for the Copa America 2019 winner.
I think that backing any team other than Uruguay to win Copa America just doesn’t make sense right now. The odds for the other favorites are too short to contain any value, while the rest of the countries are highly unlikely to lift the trophy.
Our team of soccer experts will be following the tournament closely, so make sure to check our Copa America 2019 Betting Guide for more information. It includes fresh betting odds and updates about the tournament. Once the games start, we will also provide regular betting picks.